JR's Plays of the Day thread

[Jrgum3]

Tough night last night as I go 1-2 and both NFL plays lose. I was lucky that I even had a chance to win on Dallas but I never expected Aubrey to miss that kick. Funny thing is I won in both BMR contests so I don't feel too bad but it sucks that I bet -5.5 and lost that way with my own money. Alas we move on and hopefully find some winners this weekend.

Overall record: 126-145-5 -26.79u
MLB: 92-82-4 +6.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 10-13-1 -4.35u
NFL: 6-17 -11.77u

 

[Jrgum3]

9/27/24

MLB
Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers u7.5 -123 1.23u to win 1u

NCAAF
Washington/Rutgers u45 -103 1.03u to win 1u

 

[BMR Genie]

Bounce back, Jr!

 

[phillyflyers]

JR

Any thoughts on Phillies/Nats?

Phils fighting for 1st seed with Dodgers.

No way they lose?

 

[Jrgum3]

JR

Any thoughts on Phillies/Nats?

Phils fighting for 1st seed with Dodgers.

No way they lose?

Most of the action is on the Phillies and probably because people are thinking the way you are that there's no way they lose. I have no play on it because the Phils are -185 and probably rightfully so with the Nats pretty much just going through the motions right now. If I did play something I'd look at the run line for the Phillies because I think if they win it is a pretty good chance that they win by more than one run.

 

[Jrgum3]

9/28

NCAAF
Baylor -3 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Kansas State -5 -107 1.07u to win 1u

Added two more college football plays for tomorrow's action. I like Baylor to cover the spread tomorrow against BYU. This is a classic buy low sell high spot. In Baylor's case they lost last week but it took a miracle play by Colorado to force overtime and Baylor ended up losing the game in OT. In the case of BYU they won last week and are now in the top 25 but I think you can sell high on them here because they were outgained last week despite blowing out KSU 38-9. This is a situation where the unranked team is favored over the top 25 team so I'm taking them despite the fact the ranked team is 4-0.

For my second play I took KSU to bounce back at home against Oklahoma State. I think they're the better team and the numbers bear this out as teams run all over OSU while KSU is fairly decent against the run giving up less than 100 yards a game. Add in the fact that they're at home makes me think that they win here by at least a touchdown.

 

[Tanko]

W

9/28

NCAAF
Baylor -3 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Kansas State -5 -107 1.07u to win 1u

Added two more college football plays for tomorrow's action. I like Baylor to cover the spread tomorrow against BYU. This is a classic buy low sell high spot. In Baylor's case they lost last week but it took a miracle play by Colorado to force overtime and Baylor ended up losing the game in OT. In the case of BYU they won last week and are now in the top 25 but I think you can sell high on them here because they were outgained last week despite blowing out KSU 38-9. This is a situation where the unranked team is favored over the top 25 team so I'm taking them despite the fact the ranked team is 4-0.

For my second play I took KSU to bounce back at home against Oklahoma State. I think they're the better team and the numbers bear this out as teams run all over OSU while KSU is fairly decent against the run giving up less than 100 yards a game. Add in the fact that they're at home makes me think that they win here by at least a touchdown.

Wow.... I'm on BYU manana.
BYU has played well. Beating SMU (on the road) and K-State.
I had this as a potential upset but took the points anyway.

I do like KSU bounce bakc play.
GL Jrgum....

 

[Jrgum3]

W

Wow.... I'm on BYU manana.
BYU has played well. Beating SMU (on the road) and K-State.
I had this as a potential upset but took the points anyway.

I do like KSU bounce bakc play.
GL Jrgum....

I wouldn't be shocked if BYU wins but this is a spot play. BYU just entered the top 25 and Baylor is coming off a tough loss. You have to ask yourself why the unranked team is favored in this one? I think the oddsmakers are counting on people to bet on BYU but we'll see tomorrow because I don't think Baylor should have lost that game last week and I took them this week because I think they bounce back strong against BYU.

 

[Jrgum3]

All right we go 2-0 on the day as the White Sox and Tigers stay under the total while the Washington/Rutgers game goes under 45. I'm glad I didn't bet the side in that one because I would have definitely taken Washington plus the points and they basically should have covered but they missed three field goals and had a stupid penalty to overturn a block field goal by them. That play was huge because Rutgers scored a TD on the next play and that ended up being the difference between winning and losing for them.

Overall record: 128-145-5 -24.79u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 11-13-1 -3.35u
NFL: 6-17 -11.77u

 

[BMR Genie]

All right we go 2-0 on the day as the White Sox and Tigers stay under the total while the Washington/Rutgers game goes under 45. I'm glad I didn't bet the side in that one because I would have definitely taken Washington plus the points and they basically should have covered but they missed three field goals and had a stupid penalty to overturn a block field goal by them. That play was huge because Rutgers scored a TD on the next play and that ended up being the difference between winning and losing for them.

Overall record: 128-145-5 -24.79u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 11-13-1 -3.35u
NFL: 6-17 -11.77u

 

[Jrgum3]

1-1 day today as KSU rolls but Baylor drops another tough one against BYU. I did hit both my free play plays on N. Illinois under 46.5 and Alabama ML so I had a pretty good football Saturday. I didn't track these plays because I don't feel like that would be accurate record keeping since I don't count free plays as wins or losses on my record due to the fact it's not real money I'm betting with. Maybe I'm wrong on this but if both plays had lost I wouldn't actually lose anything because I didn't have my own money on the game.

Overall record: 129-146-5 -24.84u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 12-14-1 -3.40
NFL: 6-17 -11.77u

 

[Jrgum3]

9/29

NFL
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 -116 1.16u to win 1u
Cleveland Browns -2.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Baltimore Ravens -111 1.11u to win 1u

I have three plays for tomorrow and I bet three short favorites. First up I like Atlanta to cover against New Orleans. At first glance Atlanta looks like a team that shouldn't be favored here but in reality both teams are banged up coming into this one. The Saints offense looked devastating in the first two weeks but then came crashing back to Earth in the last game against the Eagles. I think it's more likely they're more like the team that showed up last week and they may actually be more banged up than the Falcons. I look for the Falcons to win a close game here and I'm happy I got less than a Field goal here because I think this divisional rivalry could come down to a late field goal or something along those lines with Atlanta covering.

I had the Browns circled all week for their matchup against the Raiders because I think the Raiders are in disarray. Not only is their coach throwing them under the bus but their star wide receiver Adams is out plus their star defensive lineman Maxx Crosby is also sidelined. I think Cleveland should favored here and they are now after that news broke. I look for Cleveland to come in and play a far better game than they have all year en route to a victory against the Raiders.

Last but not least my favorite bet of the week is this Baltimore bet against the Bills. The Bills have looked unstoppable the last two weeks and quite frankly I can understand why people would back them because they look like the best team in the NFL with Josh Allen playing at an elite level. However, I like Baltimore when they're backed into a corner under Harbaugh and just like last week when I took them against Dallas I expect them to come out here and play another good game in prime time against the Bills to get the cover.

 

[Jrgum3]

All right well I ended on a good note with Baltimore blowing out the Bills at home but still finish down on the day with the Falcons winning but not covering and the Raiders beating the Browns at home. Onto tomorrow where we get a double header in both the NFL and MLB with the Braves and Mets playing an important double header.

Overall record: 130-148-5 -26.08u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 12-14-1 -3.40
NFL: 7-19 -13.01u

 

[Tanko]

All right well I ended on a good note with Baltimore blowing out the Bills at home but still finish down on the day with the Falcons winning but not covering and the Raiders beating the Browns at home. Onto tomorrow where we get a double header in both the NFL and MLB with the Braves and Mets playing an important double header.

Overall record: 130-148-5 -26.08u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 12-14-1 -3.40
NFL: 7-19 -13.01u

Nice job ending MLB regular season +money. Not an easy chore.
I think I ended up +0.6 units ($62).... Woo hoo....

 

[BMR Genie]

Indeed a great job on your MLB season, JR!

 

[Jrgum3]

Nice job ending MLB regular season +money. Not an easy chore.
I think I ended up +0.6 units ($62).... Woo hoo....

Thanks Tanko I ended up just over a unit on the full season thanks to a strong run here since June. I'll take it since it's very difficult to beat baseball over the course of a season with all it's ups and downs.

 

[Jrgum3]

9/30/24

NFL
Tennessee/Miami u37 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Tyreek Hill o4.5 receptions -105 1.05u to win 1u
Seattle Seahawks +4 -103 1.03u to win 1u

Three plays for me on tonight's twin bill in the NFL. First I'm expecting a terrible game in the game between Tennessee and Miami. I'm not really sure who wins this game although I actually lean Miami to find a way because I don't trust Will Levis. What I do know for sure is that both offenses are going to struggle to move the ball with Miami down to Tyler Huntley playing QB and Will Levis playing very much like a backup QB at this point. The only thing that concerns me about this low total is that there are a bunch of turnovers setting up short fields but I'm willing to play this at the key number of 37 because I don't see either offense moving the ball with success.

I did take Tyreek Hill's receptions prop over tonight though because I expect coach Mcdaniel to find a way to scheme his best player the ball. The Dolphins may not have stability at QB but they do have some good playmakers in Hill and Achane. I think they find a way to get Hill involved in the short passing game making throws easier for Huntley as he attempts to matriculate the ball down the field.

In the nightcap I took the points with Seattle. I think this will be a very good game between two really good teams but imo Seattle is undervalued here on defense. They have a legit defense and I don't fully trust Detroit's offense despite the fact that they have so many playmakers. They've struggled through 3 games and I think Seattle can make life tough on them. Throw in the fact that Dan Campbell has never beaten Seattle and I am gladly taking the points here in a game I expect to be very competitive.

 

[Jrgum3]

Another tough night betting the NFL as none of my bets win although for a minute there I thought I was going to hit both bets in the Miami game but alas that didn't happen. At least MLB playoffs start tomorrow so I'll probably have something on that and try to get back on track. Also wasn't aware of this but regular season NHL starts this week so I'll have even more sports to take a look at betting wise although I'm going to do my best to refrain from having too much action because I know for a fact that's gotten me into trouble in the past. It's just hard with all these sports going at once to not have a lot of action so we'll see what happens.

Overall record: 130-151-5 -29.24u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 12-14-1 -3.40
NFL: 7-22 -16.17u

 

[JDS]

Another tough night betting the NFL as none of my bets win although for a minute there I thought I was going to hit both bets in the Miami game but alas that didn't happen. At least MLB playoffs start tomorrow so I'll probably have something on that and try to get back on track. Also wasn't aware of this but regular season NHL starts this week so I'll have even more sports to take a look at betting wise although I'm going to do my best to refrain from having too much action because I know for a fact that's gotten me into trouble in the past. It's just hard with all these sports going at once to not have a lot of action so we'll see what happens.

Overall record: 130-151-5 -29.24u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 12-14-1 -3.40
NFL: 7-22 -16.17u

The NFL has been brutal this year, myself included.

 

[BMR Genie]

Another tough night betting the NFL as none of my bets win although for a minute there I thought I was going to hit both bets in the Miami game but alas that didn't happen. At least MLB playoffs start tomorrow so I'll probably have something on that and try to get back on track. Also wasn't aware of this but regular season NHL starts this week so I'll have even more sports to take a look at betting wise although I'm going to do my best to refrain from having too much action because I know for a fact that's gotten me into trouble in the past. It's just hard with all these sports going at once to not have a lot of action so we'll see what happens.

Overall record: 130-151-5 -29.24u
MLB: 93-82-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 12-14-1 -3.40
NFL: 7-22 -16.17u

The NFL has been brutal this year, myself included.

The good news is, that we're not near the ending and there are still many weeks to recover.