JR's Plays of the Day thread

[Wagerallsports]

GL tonight jr

 

[BMR Genie]

Another 2-2 day in NFL as Baltimore and Pittsburgh win but the Niners choke away the game late and it goes over plus the Falcons don't cover in their loss to the Chiefs. We'll see what I cook up for Monday with two NFL games on the schedule.

Overall record: 124-138-4 -21.48u
MLB: 91-80-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-24-1 -11.14u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 9-13-1 -5.35u
NFL: 6-13 -7.57u

9/23/24

NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Jacksonville Jaguars ML +223 0.5u to win 1.12u

I'm only playing the game between the Jags and Bills because I see value there in that game with the Jags. This is a spot where we're going to attempt to buy low with the Jags who are 0-2 but have played well enough to win on defense. Their offense does need to get it together but I think they can do that here against the Bills. Last week the Bills defense played lights out against the Dolphins but in week 1 they looked average against the Cards. I think the Jags will be able to move the ball on them here similarly to what they did against them last year when they won against the Bills in London. So I'm backing the more desparate team here to come out and not only cover but get their first win of the year on Monday Night football.

For what it's worth I lean the Bengals in the second game but I don't like the number right now. I think they win but I'm not sure they cover. I just don't want to trust the Commanders to beat the spread against a desperate Cincy team whom I expect to be sharp on both sides of the ball in a game they need to win. It's a no play for me but I do think Cincinnati plays their best game of the year and wins Monday night.

A split tie.

Good luck today, Jr.

 

[Jrgum3]

0-2 day as I couldn't be more wrong about the Jags. It was just a bad bet from the beginning and I have to tip my cap to the Bills who aren't a mirage for once and look like the best team in the AFC. They've looked that way in the past though and have fallen short but this year something is different. The Chiefs look vulnerable and I can see a team like the Bills giving them all they can handle in the playoffs. Seems weird to say seeing how Josh Allen lost most of his weapons from last year but yet he has them looking like a well oiled machine on offense and 3-0 to start the year.

Overall record: 124-140-4 -23.03u
MLB: 91-80-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-24-1 -11.14u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 9-13-1 -5.35u
NFL: 6-15 -9.12u

 

[BMR Genie]

0-2 day as I couldn't be more wrong about the Jags. It was just a bad bet from the beginning and I have to tip my cap to the Bills who aren't a mirage for once and look like the best team in the AFC. They've looked that way in the past though and have fallen short but this year something is different. The Chiefs look vulnerable and I can see a team like the Bills giving them all they can handle in the playoffs. Seems weird to say seeing how Josh Allen lost most of his weapons from last year but yet he has them looking like a well oiled machine on offense and 3-0 to start the year.

Overall record: 124-140-4 -23.03u
MLB: 91-80-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-24-1 -11.14u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 9-13-1 -5.35u
NFL: 6-15 -9.12u

Is the Jacksonville coach already fired?

 

[Jrgum3]

Is the Jacksonville coach already fired?

He might be it looks like he's already lost his team and it doesn't help that he threw them under the bus after the game saying they're not very good. I think some of it is him and some of it is that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit mediocre and not playing like a number one pick.

 

[Tanko]

0-2 day as I couldn't be more wrong about the Jags. It was just a bad bet from the beginning and I have to tip my cap to the Bills who aren't a mirage for once and look like the best team in the AFC. They've looked that way in the past though and have fallen short but this year something is different. The Chiefs look vulnerable and I can see a team like the Bills giving them all they can handle in the playoffs. Seems weird to say seeing how Josh Allen lost most of his weapons from last year but yet he has them looking like a well oiled machine on offense and 3-0 to start the year.

Overall record: 124-140-4 -23.03u
MLB: 91-80-4 +7.57u
WNBA: 15-24-1 -11.14u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 9-13-1 -5.35u
NFL: 6-15 -9.12u

I think the Bills have proven they are a pretty damn good team this year.
I was surprised by the outcome. Was leaning Jags too but didn't bet it.

 

[Jrgum3]

I think the Bills have proven they are a pretty damn good team this year.
I was surprised by the outcome. Was leaning Jags too but didn't bet it.

The Jags are frauds and not very good right now. The Bills on the other hand are the real deal and legit contenders. They seem to be better off without Stefon Diggs and are balanced on offense plus they have a pretty damn good defense. I want to see them play the Chiefs because I think they can beat them.

 

[Tanko]

The Jags are frauds and not very good right now. The Bills on the other hand are the real deal and legit contenders. They seem to be better off without Stefon Diggs and are balanced on offense plus they have a pretty damn good defense. I want to see them play the Chiefs because I think they can beat them.

I was thinking the same. No Diggs = better team.
I don't know what he was like as a leader (or not) but they are gelling.

 

[Jrgum3]

9/24/24

MLB
New York Mets ML +131 1u to win 1.31u

WNBA
Atlanta Dream/New York Liberty u156.5 -111 1.11u to win 1u

2 plays for me tonight with one in bases in the showdown between the Mets and Braves as well as one in the W between the Liberty and Dream. I'm taking a shot on the Mets to keep it going against the Braves. Despite the Braves having a slight pitching edge I think the Mets are too hot to fade right now so I'm rolling with them to keep winning.

In the WNBA I'm taking the under in the game between the Liberty and Dream because I think the Liberty will cruise here. They're on a mission to win a championship and quite frankly the Dream are lucky to be here. I don't think the Liberty mess around here and let the Dream believe they can win in this series so I can see laying the 12.5 here but instead of doing that I'm going with the under because I think the Liberty will clamp down on defense and ride that to an easy victory. 156.5 is too many points in this game so an under makes sense here.

 

[Tanko]

9/24/24

MLB
New York Mets ML +131 1u to win 1.31u

WNBA
Atlanta Dream/New York Liberty u156.5 -111 1.11u to win 1u

2 plays for me tonight with one in bases in the showdown between the Mets and Braves as well as one in the W between the Liberty and Dream. I'm taking a shot on the Mets to keep it going against the Braves. Despite the Braves having a slight pitching edge I think the Mets are too hot to fade right now so I'm rolling with them to keep winning.

In the WNBA I'm taking the under in the game between the Liberty and Dream because I think the Liberty will cruise here. They're on a mission to win a championship and quite frankly the Dream are lucky to be here. I don't think the Liberty mess around here and let the Dream believe they can win in this series so I can see laying the 12.5 here but instead of doing that I'm going with the under because I think the Liberty will clamp down on defense and ride that to an easy victory. 156.5 is too many points in this game so an under makes sense here.

I think the value is in the Mets. I saw that game as a toss up so +135 is great value.

 

[Jrgum3]

0-2 day as the Mets couldn't overcome an early deficit and the Liberty advanced to the next round of the playoffs to meet the Aces in a rematch of the Finals from last year. Unfortunately for me in that game the Liberty had to ride the hot hand of Sabrina Ionescu and the total soared over 156.5 behind her franchise playoff record 36 points. On to the next one hopefully I turn it turn it around tomorrow.

Overall record: 124-142-4 -25.14u
MLB: 91-81-4 +6.57u
WNBA: 15-25-1 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 9-13-1 -5.35u
NFL: 6-15 -9.12u

 

[BMR Genie]

You'll get it today, Jr.

 

[Jrgum3]

9/25/24

MLB
Kansas City Royals ML -130 1.3u to win 1u
San Diego Padres ML +125 1u to win 1.25u

WNBA
Connecticut Sun -6 -115 1.15u to win 1u

 

[Tanko]

9/25/24

MLB
Kansas City Royals ML -130 1.3u to win 1u
San Diego Padres ML +125 1u to win 1.25u

WNBA
Connecticut Sun -6 -115 1.15u to win 1u

No love for Caitlan tonight JR????

 

[Jrgum3]

No love for Caitlan tonight JR????

I think Connecticut is a bad matchup for Indiana. They're physical and they get after it on defense. Last night the dogs were barking but I see Connecticut and Minnesota finishing off their opponents with ease tonight. Indiana isn't ready for primetime yet so I'm not backing them here at less than 7 points.

 

[Jrgum3]

1-1-1 day Wednesday as Kansas City gets it done but San Diego falls short in bases while Connecticut winds up pushing on the spread. I think Indiana isn't quite ready to beat a team like Connecticut but they had a tremendous season. Nobody thought they'd get to the playoffs but they did. They just need one or two more key pieces to be a legitimate threat to win it all in the WNBA imo.

Overall record: 125-143-5 -25.14u
MLB: 92-82-4 +6.57u
WNBA: 15-25-2 -12.25u
NHL: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 9-13-1 -5.35u
NFL: 6-15 -9.12u

 

[Jrgum3]

9/26/24

NFL
Dallas Cowboys -5.5 -113 1.13u to win 1u
Jake Ferguson u4.5 receptions -152 1.52u to win 1u

NCAAF
Army Black Knights -12.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u

Just these three plays for me tonight. I like Dallas tonight to get the win and cover against the Giants. I know the Cowboys have looked awful these past two weeks but the Giants are a remedy for what ails them imo because I feel they will get their offense going tonight against the Giants and play from ahead for a large portion of this game. I don't think the Giants offense is very good so I don't expect them to shred Dallas's defense like the Saints and Ravens did. If there ever a spot for Dallas to look good it's here this week against the Giants on the road. If they can't take advantage of this spot then I'll probably avoid their games or fade them going forward.

I also took Jake Ferguson u4.5 receptions tonight. I know Jake has been heavily involved in the offense so far for Dallas and he's basically the number 2 option but I see Dallas getting the ball to Ceedee Lamb early and often tonight. I don't think they'll have to rely on their passing game as much to win this game but when they do pass I expect the lions share of the targets to go to the receivers and in particular Lamb so I'm taking u4.5 receptions for Ferguson tonight.

My last play is on Army to cover tonight against Temple. Army has been very good for me so far this season and they're one of the best stories in college football. I don't see them having much trouble with a bad Temple football team. This Army team can both run and pass which is unusual for them because we always think of them as an option team but I think they can put enough points on the board in this one to cover the two touchdown spread against Temple.

 

[theriver55]

GL JR. How good is Dallas? I see your logic in laying the wood here. But overall I think Dallas is overrated and can see the NYG possibly Hanging with them all night. I bought NYG up to 10.5 in a 4 leg small SGP. as for Army as a rule I am either with them or no play. see what happens.

 

[Tanko]

9/26/24

NFL
Dallas Cowboys -5.5 -113 1.13u to win 1u
Jake Ferguson u4.5 receptions -152 1.52u to win 1u

NCAAF
Army Black Knights -12.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u

Just these three plays for me tonight. I like Dallas tonight to get the win and cover against the Giants. I know the Cowboys have looked awful these past two weeks but the Giants are a remedy for what ails them imo because I feel they will get their offense going tonight against the Giants and play from ahead for a large portion of this game. I don't think the Giants offense is very good so I don't expect them to shred Dallas's defense like the Saints and Ravens did. If there ever a spot for Dallas to look good it's here this week against the Giants on the road. If they can't take advantage of this spot then I'll probably avoid their games or fade them going forward.

I also took Jake Ferguson u4.5 receptions tonight. I know Jake has been heavily involved in the offense so far for Dallas and he's basically the number 2 option but I see Dallas getting the ball to Ceedee Lamb early and often tonight. I don't think they'll have to rely on their passing game as much to win this game but when they do pass I expect the lions share of the targets to go to the receivers and in particular Lamb so I'm taking u4.5 receptions for Ferguson tonight.

My last play is on Army to cover tonight against Temple. Army has been very good for me so far this season and they're one of the best stories in college football. I don't see them having much trouble with a bad Temple football team. This Army team can both run and pass which is unusual for them because we always think of them as an option team but I think they can put enough points on the board in this one to cover the two touchdown spread against Temple.

Jrgum, I'm not from Missouri but I am a believer in their logo.... "The Show Me" state. I'm betting against those boys until they prove they are even half-a$$. They were so bad the last couple weeks, I have zero faith in them and I'm a Cowboys fan. Maybe I'm over-reacting but I'm going with the Giants to keep it close enough.

GL tonight.

 

[Jrgum3]

Jrgum, I'm not from Missouri but I am a believer in their logo.... "The Show Me" state. I'm betting against those boys until they prove they are even half-a$$. They were so bad the last couple weeks, I have zero faith in them and I'm a Cowboys fan. Maybe I'm over-reacting but I'm going with the Giants to keep it close enough.

GL tonight.

Yeah I know Dallas hasn't been very good but my reasoning is simple I'm banking on them to find something here against a team they own in the Giants. I could be horribly wrong which wouldn't be the first time but I think Dallas really gets it going on offense and it'll be difficult for Danny Jones to keep up with them.