Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

I see this game being a pretty high scoring affair between the Knicks and Timberwolves. The Knicks are a little thin on their frontline tonight, starting Hartenstein who is a solid player. But I think it'll give KAT the opportunity to take advantage of miscues on defense to drop assists and potentially get a few offensive rebounds. Without Gobert in the lineup for Minnesota, this should for KAT to go inside a bit more tonight which will give him more opportunities to grab rebounds. We know this will be an up and down game with the total set at 235.5 so there will be plenty of chances to earn stats.

K Towns o15.5 REB+AST (-110)
2 units

 

[Analytics Capper]

The battle of New York! I think the Nets get it done today on their home floor. They have been playing much better the last few games, actually trying on defense and sharing the ball. I think the game will be close throughout and then you have one of the best closers in the game in Durant to lean on in the 4th. I think Brooklyn's role players will step up today and negate some of the advantages the Knicks have on paper.

Nets -3.5 (-105) v. Knicks
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Memphis Grizzlies don't play any defense, which could be a scary spot against a struggling Minnesota team who could look to bounce back on any given night. This is a good spot for the road team to try to get their offense back on track. There won't be much interior defense with Memphis, and they'll be looking to get out and score on offense themselves. I'm usually hesistant to back Minnesota in spots like these but I will trust it tonight.

Timberwolves +4 (-105) v. Grizzlies
1 UNIT

 

[Analytics Capper]

A matchups between two backups today. But McCoy is a proven winner in this league and Wolford is more of an unknown. The Rams inability to run will hurt them today. I see Arizona potentially taking this game outright.

Cardinals +3.5 v. Rams
2 UNITS

 

[lemartinsports]

A matchups between two backups today. But McCoy is a proven winner in this league and Wolford is more of an unknown. The Rams inability to run will hurt them today. I see Arizona potentially taking this game outright.

Cardinals +3.5 v. Rams
2 UNITS

great call

 

[Analytics Capper]

great call

Thank you! What a great weekend!

 

[Analytics Capper]

After a hard fought game yesterday against the Knicks, I expect the OKC Thunder to have a little bit of a let down spot today. This means potential big minutes for their role players, including Pokusevski. His length will serve him well around the rim, especially if he can grab a couple offensive rebounds. And he shoots it well from the charity stripe. I think all of this gives him a good chance to score in double figures today, in a game where I expect high scoring.

Pokusevski over 9.5 PTS (-110)
1 UNIT

 

[Analytics Capper]

We know SMU's offense is elite. I think their ability to move the ball up and down the field will always give them a chance to cover and win games outright. Tulane is a solid team, well coached, and they play hard but I don't know if they can keep up with SMU's explosive offense. The scoring conditions and weather aren't bad either which compels me to think we'll see a lot of points put up tonight. I like this spot for the value underdog.

SMU +3.5 (-110) v Tulane
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I don't love the spot here. The Nuggets will be sitting a lot of guys tonight, so I tend to not like to back the other team. But this is a must win spot for Dallas, who have not covered a game in their last 10. And they recently just lost to the Houston Rockets straight up at home. This is a get right opportunity for the Mavericks and Luka Doncic needs to lead the way. They need to prioritize playing good, solid basketball for 4 quarters. When they do that, we know they can dominate teams. They just haven't put a full 48 minutes together that often this season. This will be the first of the back to back matchup against Denver and the Mavericks should come out early and often to set a tone for the next game as well.

Mavericks -9 (-105) v. Nuggets
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Texas is coming off a disappointing loss last week against TCU. They had ample opportunities to steal that game, but their offense made too many mistakes. This week is not only a bounceback but I think the windy weather will play to the team's favor. They have a great run blocking offensive line and arguably the best lead running back in college football. When they lean on these two aspects, Texas is really good. They are the away favorite today so it will be imperative for the QB to not make any mistakes and turn the ball over to cover the number. But I do think Texas gets back in the win column and they should blow out Kansas.

Texas -9 (-105) v. Kansas
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is a great spot for the Houston Texans, who only have one win on the season. I think Washington might be overlooking this opponent, especially on holiday weekend on the road. To be only 3 points favorite against the worst team in the league is a bit fishy to me and I suspect the books envision a close game. If Davis Mills can take care of the ball today, I think Houston has a chance to get the win outright.

Texans +3 (-105) v. Commanders
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Dallas is playing the defending champs so it's always scary, but going to trust it here. The Stars have been playing great this season as we've seen a uptick in their scoring. Plus Oettinger is in goal for Dallas tonight and when he's on, he's arguably the best net minder in the league. I think Stars win this 3-2 or 4-3.

Stars ML (-120) v. Avalanche
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for the road team tonight to pick up the cover and the win. Ball State had been playing really well before the last two games. They were 5-4 and looking like a legitimate bowl game contender before dropping the previous 2 games. They've been struggling mainly on the defensive side of the ball and I think they'll get it fixed against a bad Miami Ohio offense.

Ball State +2.5 v. Miami Ohio
2 UNITS

 

[JDS]

I don’t mean to sound like a jerk off AC, but you never updated your record as you promised me a month ago lol.

 

[Analytics Capper]

I don’t mean to sound like a jerk off AC, but you never updated your record as you promised me a month ago lol.

Hi there - I skipped my daughter's thanksgiving performance to update it tonight for you. Overall record and average juice.

 

[Analytics Capper]

I don’t mean to sound like a jerk off AC, but you never updated your record as you promised me a month ago lol.

You can see it on the first post of this thread.

 

[JDS]

Hi there - I skipped my daughter's thanksgiving performance to update it tonight for you. Overall record and average juice.

Good one that was actually funny.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Good one that was actually funny.

It actually wasn't a joke. Took about 5.5 hours to update. Hope you're enjoying the free plays.

 

[biggins]

Not to be a dick but l see a whole hell of a lot of money lines which imo makes your win loss record moot.
But that’s just me.

 

[JDS]

It actually wasn't a joke. Took about 5.5 hours to update. Hope you're enjoying the free plays.

Damn you were really back logged. I hate to be melodramatic, but you probably didn’t want to go to that recital any damn way lol, thanks for coming through on your word. I hold people accountable in forumville, that’s my strength.