Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[goblue05]

Going to have to keep my eye on this thread going forward. Nets up pretty big early but it is the NBA

 

[Analytics Capper]

Going to have to keep my eye on this thread going forward. Nets up pretty big early but it is the NBA

so many winners

 

[Analytics Capper]

It's going to be a run heavy offense for the Chiefs today. And even if they get down, Mahomes will focus on Kelce, JuJu and Toney before MVS. I'm going to play the numbers here and go with the under as I believe the game script will be to the under. Both teams will play ball control, possession football and I think there will be less opportunities for WR3 and WR4 for either team.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling under 27.5 Rec Yards (-110)
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I like Buffalo as a team a lot. But I think this is a great spot to fade the public fade of the Hurricanes. The Canes had an unbelievable 4-1 comeback last night and I can already sense because of the amazing comeback, people are going to blindly bet the other side. Carolina is also on a second night of a back to back and that works against them as well as seen in the line movement. I'm going to trust the better and more talented team. They can't have another 4-1 comeback again tonight, so hopefully they get off to a strong start.

Hurricanes ML (-145) v. Sabres
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Saint Louis is coming off a tough loss 65-75 when they were favored by 4 points to win. This is a great spot to bounceback against a solid VCU team that has won 8 of their last 10 games. The difference tonight will be defensively. If Saint Louis can hold VCU under 70, I foresee the win and the cover happening. Neither team shoot the 3 ball well so I believe the winner of the game will be the team that will make more shots from long distance. Give me the Billikens at home and their Friday night crowd to get it done.

Saint Louis -3 (-110) v. VCU
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great spot for the home team to get a win today. Mississippi State has an elite defense, only giving up aroune 59 points per game. They are coming off 2 great wins against South Carolina and TCU in their last 2 games. I think home court is a big advantage in shis game tonight, and Mississippi State has dominated this head to head matchup on their home floor. Missouri has a potential let down spot after beating LSU handily 87-77 a couple nights ago.

Mississippi State -3.5 (-110) v. Missouri
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Wisconsin has not been good on the road this season. The Badgers are only 2-8 ATS on their home floor. But they are laying 3.5 points to a solid Northwestern side that has performed well on the road. I'm going to trust the read here. I think Wisconsin's previous win against Ohio State will propel them to continue to play solid basketball tonight.

Wisconsin -3.5 (-110) v. Northwestern
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Wizards are a short underdog tonight without Kuzma and Beal? This is a very odd line and you guys know I like odd lines. Cleveland has been playing well, but they are on the road and in the midst of a pretty tough in terms of scheduling. I'm going to go with the Wizards tonight, hope their shooters can knock down 3s from the outside.

Wizards +1 (-110) v. Cavs
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Wu has been playing amazing the entire tournament. Isner's advantage in almost every matchup is his elite serving, but in this match it will be somewhat negated because Wu has been returning at a very high level. He has beaten some really legitimate servers in route to the Dallas Open Final today. I think he will have the advantage, especially if we see multiple tie breaks today. His game is more well rounded and less dependent on one facet of his game. It will be a tough match with the entire crowd on Isner's side but Wu can get this done.

Wu ML (-125) v. Isner
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Orlando has been much player since the new year. They are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games, including 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Chicago, with all their talent, just cannot be trusted from a betting perspective. They've lost 3 straight games and none of them were really that close. Their offense, which should be their strong suit, has been failing them. If Orlando can take care of the glass, I believe their extra opportunities and second chance points will get them over the top against a struggling Chicago team.

Magic +4.5 (-110) v. Bulls
2 units

 

[Analytics Capper]

Rutgers are coming off 2 losses and are laying 14 points tonight against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers aren't a good team but it's hard to blow out anyone at this stage of the season. The good thing is we've seen Rutgers do it in the past so we know they are capable. They just beat Minnesota by 35 points a couple weeks ago and since then has shot sub 40% from the field in the 3 games. I think the Scarlet Knights offense will bounceback in a big way tonight.

Rutgers -14 (-110) v. Nebraska
2 Units

 

[Analytics Capper]

Atlanta plays the Knicks well. They've won 3 of the last 4 games, including a 139-124 domination on January 20th. The Hawks are coming off a bad loss against the Hornets and this is a great bounceback spot. As long as Atlanta can win the 3 point battle with Young, Murray, and Bogdanovic, I think the Hawks will win comfortably.

Hawks -3.5 (-110) v. Knicks
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

North Carolina Central hasn't been playing great as of late, especially considering how well Mid-Eastern is balling. NCC is only 6-4 in their last 10 and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. The Hawks on the other hand are 5-1-1 ATS in their 7 and are playing well. But the line movement here is going towards NCCU which is a big tip to me. I think they win and cover the number by multiple possessions on the road.

NCC -2.5 (-110) v. Mid-Eastern
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Kennesaw State is coming off a loss, but they have been playing great all year. They will be in a tough environment tonight, on the road, against a North Alabama team that is 15-11 ATS overall and an impressive 6-2 ATS at home. But I like the Owls' defense and I think they will be able to do enough to keep North Alabama from hitting a lot of threes. This is also their first time meeting this year and North Alabama has won the last 7 head to head matchups. You guys know I love revenge spots. Kennesaw State get it done tonight! Please make your free throws late.

Kennesaw State -2.5 (-110) v. North Alabama
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This should be a great game, featuring two of the best teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are sitting at 35-22 but only 9-18-1 ATS on the road. But I think this is a good opportunity for them to steal a game on the road. They will look to get into transition early and often against Philadelphia, especially the minutes Harden will play. The 76ers are solid at home, but the difference in this game will be mainly based on transition points and 3 point shooting.

Grizzlies +3.5 (-110) v. 76ers
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Golden Eagles have been great all season long. Sitting with an impressive 26-4 record, Oral Roberts is one of the best offensive teams in the country. With that said, they have not covered in their last 5 games. On the other side, South Dakota State is a solid team and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home, 16-4 SU against Oral Roberts in their last 20. But I see them struggling to keep up with Oral Roberts' scoring today. If the Golden Eagles can hit north of 10 threes, I think they will blow out the Jackrabbits.

Oral Roberts -5 (-110) v. SD St
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Going against movement here which is scary this time of the year in college basketball. But Georgetown has been great ATS in recent times. They are only 2-8 in their last 10 games, but are an astonishing 8-2 ATS in the same time frame. That shows this is a team that competes, but just falls short at th end. The one positive for them is they are really good off a loss and they get up for teams that have better records than them. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%. If the Hoyas can defend, they will be able to hang with anyone.

Georgetown +7 (-110) v. Providence
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A big matchup between two SEC teams. I've mentioned this in the past, but I really like the Aggies a a team this year. Versatile on both offense and defense. I think the game being in College Station will be enough for them to get the win and cover against one of the top teams in the country. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home and are 6-2 SU against in their last 8 games against Alabama. It will very important for the Aggies to shoot above 40 percent from the field and his their free throws to close out the game.

Texas A&M -1 (-110) v. Alabama
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Warriors are not the same team on the road. And with the continued absence of Curry, Payton, Wiggins, and others, Golden State don't have the depth to make mistakes. Although there's no LeBron for the Lakers, the team is longer and more athletic than the Warriors. I expect Anthony Davis to live at the line today and are primed for an upset today. The Warriors are riding high, winning the last 5 games and covering in all 5. But now they have to leave the friendly confines of the Chase Center in San Francisco. The difference will be at the 3 point line today.

Lakers +5 (-110) v. Warriors
2 UNITS