Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Both teams are coming off bad losses, but the Warriors have been struggling on the road all season long. No way we can back them so we will go the other side in this matchup. We know Indiana will be able to put up a ton of points tonight, especially with Haliburton's horrific game last time out. I expect him to have a huge bounceback tonight and for the Pacers to handle the Warriors pretty easily.

Pacers -2.5 (-105) v. Warriors
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I'm leaning on Indianopolis' defense here. The Colts are coming off a game where they gave up 54 points to the Cowboys, 33 of which came in the 4th quarter. The good thing for Indy is that was 2 weeks ago. They are rested and healthier than the Vikings today. Minnesota has had a great season but still haven't shown they are considered one of the elite teams. If the Colts can hold Minnesota in the low 20s, I think they will have a chance to not only cover, but win the game outright.

Colts +4 (-105) v. Vikings
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

It will be very cold and windy in Chicago today. I think the weather will be playing a major factor in the game today, limiting the passing opportunities for both teams. Because of that, I think Chicago will be able to keep it close with Fields extended drives because of his feet. The key will be for the Chicago defense to limit the Eagles to field goals in the red zone. Hurts has been amazing finding his main target AJ Brown for touchdowns so far this season.

Bears +9 (-105) v. Eagles
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Green Bay is still playing for something tonight. They are also the much healthier team among the two, and arguably the healthiest they've been all season long. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, I expect a dominating performance in all three phases of the game tonight. Offense, defense, and special teams. With the weather being extremely cold, I also expect the game to be low scoring. When Green Bay relies on their running game, they are a solid football team. They key for them to cover this number is for their defensive line to be able to stop the Rams' running attack. It is still only Baker Mayfield's second week with the team so the playbook won't be that expanded from a vertical passing game perspective.

Packers -7 (-120) v. Rams
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Seattle has been playing very well this year, especially at home. I think they will take care of business and win not only the money line but the puck line. The ML is a bit safer since you don't know what's going to happen when they pull the goalie in the final minutes. It's also a good spot to fade the Blues, who have been very hot winning 4 straight games. Including 3 of which where they were underdogs. They played earlier in the year back in October and Seattle lost that game 3-4, it's a good revenge spot for them and they are a much better team 3 months later.

Kraken ML (-165) v. Blues
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

South Alabama is the better team, the more well rounded team, and has most of their guys playing tonight. Western Kentucky has a really weird situation at quarterback. Reed left for the portal, then came back after a few days. I'm going to take the more stable team and program tonight. They are seeking their first bowl win and I think they blow them out tonight.

South Alabama -3.5 (-105) v. Western Kentucky
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great spot for the home team to make a statement against a solid Clippers team. There's nobody with enough size after Zubac to handle Embiid and I think he will dominate the game today. Sixers should win, and if they hit their free throws should pull away late.

76ers -3.5 (-105) v. Clippers
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great buy low spot for a desperate Patriots team. They've played horribly as of late and just lost a unfathomable game against the Raiders due to a lateral pass. Coach Bill should have this prepared and I think they get the outright win today in Foxboro. The Bengals are the hottest team in the NFL right now but I think they run into a buzz saw, a kitchen sink game, from New England. The Bengals have bigger sights than today anyways, they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders and I think getting a loss in the last 2 weeks may help that cause. Give me New England and the points, and sprinkle the money line as well.

Patriots +3.5 (-105) v. Bengals
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Two teams moving in opposite directions. Packers quietly on a win streak, Dolphins on a losing streak. But when I look at the teams, I am more confident in Miami's offense to get back on track and I like their coaching staff better. Both teams still have things to play for but I think Miami's weapons on the outside will wreak havoc all game. It will be up to the Dolphins running game to extend drives. I think Miami will pull away from this game and win by two touchdowns.

Dolphins -3.5 (-105) v. Packers
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for a revenge bounceback for Sacramento tonight. They just played last night and the Nuggets had a furious comeback to win and cover. I think Sacramento's offense will be feasting tonight against a fatigued Nuggets team. They only hit 10 threes in each of the last two games, so it's a great regression spot for Sacramento to go off tonight.

Kings +2 (-105) v. Nuggets
2 UNITS

 

[lemartinsports]

Great spot for a revenge bounceback for Sacramento tonight. They just played last night and the Nuggets had a furious comeback to win and cover. I think Sacramento's offense will be feasting tonight against a fatigued Nuggets team. They only hit 10 threes in each of the last two games, so it's a great regression spot for Sacramento to go off tonight.

Kings +2 (-105) v. Nuggets
2 UNITS

aye nice dub!!

 

[JDS]

aye nice dub!!

I forgot about this dude after I “semi” harassed him for a record & units update lol. I was his biggest supporter before he got cute with me.

 

[Analytics Capper]

aye nice dub!!

thank you! it's been an insane year

 

[Analytics Capper]

A somewhat meaningless game for both teams tonight. I'm going with the value here and we know the Titans play much better as underdogs. The Cowboys run defense has been suspect all season and I think Tennessee's ability to pound the rock will keep this game low scoring and close. Dallas will be resting a lot of starters in the second half as well.

Titans +14 (-105) v. Cowboys
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great spot for the Fighting Irish to get some momentum into the offseason. A slow start to this season was worrisome, but they have righted the ship and can be a solid South Carolina team. With the game being in Florida, I don't think it will much of an advantage for either team - close to as neutral as you can be. I think Notre Dame's defense will do enough for the cover and the win. Let's hope they get this by a couple touchdowns.

Notre Dame -4 (-105) v. South Carolina
2 UNITS

 

[lemartinsports]

A great spot for the Fighting Irish to get some momentum into the offseason. A slow start to this season was worrisome, but they have righted the ship and can be a solid South Carolina team. With the game being in Florida, I don't think it will much of an advantage for either team - close to as neutral as you can be. I think Notre Dame's defense will do enough for the cover and the win. Let's hope they get this by a couple touchdowns.

Notre Dame -4 (-105) v. South Carolina
2 UNITS

Good luck dude

 

[Analytics Capper]

It's always scary going against the Crimson Tide, especially considering their star QB opted in to play in this game. But Kansas State has been solid all year, very well coached, and their players are much hungrier for this win than Alabama. I think the number suggest a Wildcat play as I have this closer to double digits for Alabama as they are a superior team. Will trust the numbers here.

Kansas State +7.5 (-105) v. Alabama
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Good luck dude

great win!

 

[Analytics Capper]

I see Boston matching up really well against the Nuggets. And Horford won't stop Jokic, but he has the body type and basketball IQ to defend him well (in theory). It's similar to his successes against Embiid, just a very smart defender. On offense, I see Boston's wings feasting on Denver's bad rotations and mishaps. I don't think Denver will have enough stops to keep Boston from scoring today.

Celtics -2 (-110) v. Nuggets
2 UNITS

 

[lemartinsports]

great win!

thats that shit i love to see. happy new year!!!