Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Not to be a dick but l see a whole hell of a lot of money lines which imo makes your win loss record moot.
But that’s just me.

The juice is right there in the signature. Big portion of the MLs are + money dogs.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Damn you were really back logged. I hate to be mellow dramatic, but you probably didn’t want to go to that recital any damn way lol, thanks for coming through on your word. I hold people accountable in forumville, that’s my strength.

Thanks. I did actually. She's only 3 and her it's her first Thanksgiving doing some type of performance. But I wanted to get this done. I'll try to update it every couple of months.

 

[JDS]

Thanks. I did actually. She's only 3 and her it's her first Thanksgiving doing some type of performance. But I wanted to get this done. I'll try to update it every couple of months.

Thanks again AC.

 

[JDS]

Keep up the good work. You’re the only marketing BMR sports handicapper that tracks his juice & record.

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great bounceback spot for the Dallas Mavericks who are coming off an embarrassing loss to an injured Nuggets team. I think Luka will come out and take it to Boston early who has been underwhelming defensively, especially after last season's awesome team defense. Boston is on fire and is currently the holder of the longest winning streak in the NBA, but we know Dallas always plays Boston tough. If Luka can get either one of Tatum or Brown in foul trouble, I think Dallas will have a chance to win this game outright. The Mavericks tend to play down to their opponents, but get up for these bigger teams. They are only 4-11-1 ATS this year, but are much better covering spreads away from Dallas. The Mavericks' defense should keep them in it tonight.

Mavericks +4.5 (-110) v. Celtics
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A solid spot for the road team to pick up the cover and the win. These two teams are very close to each other. Both teams average over 33 points and both teams give up less than 25 points. Mississippi State hasn't been great on the road, sitting at 1-3 ATS away so it's a good bounceback spot for them. Ole Miss isn't playing well as of late, losing the last 2 games. Their offense is great but their defense is really struggling and the injuries are mounting up. If I like the dog, I also like the ML here.

Mississippi State +2 (-110) v. Ole Miss
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is the the Super Bowl for JMU. I expect them to come out early and dominate this game throughout. Coastal has nothing to play for and will be resting a multitude of star players today, including their quarterback. I think JMU covers this number easily.

JMU -14 (-105) v. Coastal Carolina
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Jacksonville got off to a very good start to the season and have then tapered off drastically. Trevor Lawrence hasn't been as good as I expected heading into year 2, but I think he's going to have a great showing today. The Ravens are notorious for not covering games like these and I see a great spot for the Jags to potentially get the outright win.

Jaguars +3.5 (-105) v. Ravens
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Tigers are coming off a nice win and are heading back home to play in their home arena. I think this is a great spot for them to not only win and cover, but to potentially blow out the Penn State. Penn State has been playing very well but I expect a slight regression soon with their shooting.

Clemson -2 (-105) v. Penn State
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Very similar spot to our winner last night - Clemson. They are playing a very hot Kansas State team who are 6-0 for the year and have covered in 5 of those games. We know Butler is really good at home and are coming back a really bad loss where they only shot 41% from the field and made 6 threes. They'll never overwhelmin you with their shooting, but that's a bad performance. I think they will knock shots down tonight to win and cover, and I also lean the over.

Butler -3 (-105) v. Kansas State
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Hurricanes have been an under team all season long. They have a great defense and great goaltending. The under has hit 16 of 23 games so far. St. Louis is an even team, averaging the same number of goals as Carolina but giving up more. I'm going to continue to ride the Carolina under trend, which has hit in 8 of the last 9 games. Let's hope we see some great defense tonight!

Hurricanes v. Blues under 5.5
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I think we see a somewhat vanilla game plane from Georgia tonight. They do not need to risk anything tonight as they are guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoffs as long as they don't get blown out. With that in mind, I think the Bulldogs will lean heavily on the running game tonight which will milk the clock and shorten the game. The defense will also be able to shut down the LSU offense pretty convincingly.

Georgia v. LSU under 52
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Jacksonville is coming off a great win where we saw Trevor Lawrence grow right in front of our eyes. Detroit has been a solid cover team all season but I think we continue to see the growth and development of Lawrence the rest of the season. It will be up to the Jacksonville defense to limit the Detroit offense to field goals and not touchdowns. They both have the same 4-7 record but Detroit has found a way to cover more often. We know their defense gives up big plays so this could be an up and down game.

Jaguars +1 (-105) v. Lions
3 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A big rivalry game tonight. The Suns won the first game of the year. The Mavericks look to get revenge tonight. We know Dallas defends Phoenix very well so it will be up to their role players to hit open 3s tonight. I lean the under as well but I think Luka and company will do enough to get the win and cover tonight.

Pick: Mavericks -3 (-105) v. Suns
Units: 2

 

[Analytics Capper]

LeBron returns back to Cleveland today and with what I expect to be a very close game. If LeBron plays over 35 minutes, I see this prop hitting pretty easily. He's always been a great all around player that can rebound and pass the ball. I think with the game being on national TV, him returning to his old team, and his teammate Anthony Davis getting the focal point of the narrative, it sets up perfectly for a big James game.

Lebron James over 13.5 REB+AST (-120)
1 UNIT

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for Phoenix to make a statement tonight at home after losing to the Mavericks in embarrassing fashion last time out. Devin Booker had an off game and he should have a good bounce back spot against the best team in the league. He also gets his backcourt mate in Chris Paul returning from injury. However, the biggest advantage will be DeAndre Ayton. He should absolutely feast against the undersized Celtics front line without Horford and Williams. I think he will be too much for Boston and will help get Phoenix the win.

Suns ML (-110) v. Celtics
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for the visiting team tonight heading to St Louis. Greiss has been decent for the Blues but not great. I think the Jets should come out and get some early goals, just enough for the win.

Jets ML (-125) v. Blues
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Timberwolves are playing better recently after their star player, Karl Anthony Towns, went down with an injury. It's opening up lanes to drive to the basket for guys like Anthony Davis and DeAngelo Russell. This is also an emotional spot for both teams because of the Rudy Gobert trade that went down in the offseason - this will be the first time Rudy is back in Utah. I expect him to have a slow start offensively, but I think he will be a madman on the boards tonight. Look for Gobert props and a Minnesota win.

Timberwolves +2 (-105) v. Jazz
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I can't back Kingsbury at home. He's been awful during his tenure and I think he has lost his team. There's something with Kyler each week, and the team as a whole makes too many mistakes. New England, although underforming and have lost the last 2 games, still have a lot to play for. Mac has made a couple strides recently compared to his bad start and I know the Patriots will never be outcoached. This is more of a reputation pick because I think both teams aren't good. But I rather go with the better coached team, better disciplined team, and the team that still has something to play for.

Patriots -2.5 (-105) v. Cardinals
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A really good spot for the Jets here. Vegas isn't the team they used to be. They lack the speed to compete and really dominate teams. I think the Jets will get out to an early lead and potential win the game whistle to whistle. Both teams have solid defenses so goals will come at a premium tonight. I like a 3-1 or 3-2 type game and I lean the Jets.

Jets ML (-145) v. Knights
2 UNITS