Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot here for Ottawa playing a red hot Dallas team. Dallas has gone undefeated this year (losing one game in OT) but Ottawa is favored? That to me is a telling sign that the books may chalk this up to a scheduling win for the Senators.

Senators ML (-110) v. Stars
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for Seattle tonight. We got it wrong the last time we backed the, but this is a similar spot and I still believe in the spot. We know Buffalo will have trouble scoring and I think the Kraken offense will do enough.

Kraken ML (-135) v. Sabres
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Minnesota on the road hasn't been great this year, or in recent years for that matter. But this is a great spot for them to pick up a nice win away from their home ice against a team equal to their talent level at best. I would venture to say if they played each other 100 times, at most one team would win 52-55 of those games. With that rationale, the books making Minnesota the favorite, especially on the road is very telling for me. I also believe Fleury has the ability to shut the Senators down moreso than Ottawa's netminder.

Wild ML (-125) v. Senators
2 UNITS

 

[JDS]

Update your fuckin’ record & average juice for fvck sake, also good luck with your daily play today AC.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Update your fuckin’ record & average juice for fvck sake, also good luck with your daily play today AC.

Will do! Will try to get to it this weekend for you JDS!

 

[JDS]

Will do! Will try to get to it this weekend for you JDS!

Keep grinding my friend & I trust you not to fudge any numbers in your favor lol.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Keep grinding my friend & I trust you not to fudge any numbers in your favor lol.

why would I fudge the numbers? all my BMR bets are on here lol

 

[Analytics Capper]

Utah is a tough place to play in the elevation. Memphis has had some really good comebacks so far in the young season. But the Jazz will be tough to comeback against if Memphis gets out to a slow start. Utah shoots a lot of 3s and makes a lot of 3s. They are playing free and loose, and that is why they are sitting at 4-2. They've always had a great home court advantage and I see them not only covering but potentially winning outright tonight against a Grizzlies team that is a little bit injured and a little bit overrated.

Jazz +3.5 (-105) v. Grizzlies
2 UNITS

 

[JDS]

why would I fudge the numbers? all my BMR bets are on here lol

Let’s be real though it’s too many pages to go back and check no one’s going to do that here. Besides I was just messing around …

 

[Archie]

Utah is a tough place to play in the elevation. Memphis has had some really good comebacks so far in the young season. But the Jazz will be tough to comeback against if Memphis gets out to a slow start. Utah shoots a lot of 3s and makes a lot of 3s. They are playing free and loose, and that is why they are sitting at 4-2. They've always had a great home court advantage and I see them not only covering but potentially winning outright tonight against a Grizzlies team that is a little bit injured and a little bit overrated.

Jazz +3.5 (-105) v. Grizzlies
2 UNITS

damn I was looking hard at Griz tonight. mostly on reasoning the jazz on back to backs traveling home from Denver last night, and this 4th game in 6 days, they already looked flat last night.

they play against Griz again on Monday. so might wait for that game now

thanks

 

[Analytics Capper]

Let’s be real though it’s too many pages to go back and check no one’s going to do that here. Besides I was just messing around …

I would never even think about doing that! I will try to update it over the weekend.

 

[Analytics Capper]

damn I was looking hard at Griz tonight. mostly on reasoning the jazz on back to backs traveling home from Denver last night, and this 4th game in 6 days, they already looked flat last night.

they play against Griz again on Monday. so might wait for that game now

thanks

Great insight there! I think the Jazz's offense is elite so going with the home spot here.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for the Knicks on the road here. They just had a tough game against Milwaukee and this is a much easier spot to bounceback on the offensive side. The Cavs have a formidable front line, but their backcourt is pretty soft defensively. And they are missing their stud guard in Darius Garland. I think RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson, and company will be able to manufacture points and run their offense. I like New York to cover and potential win outright tonight as well.

Knicks +4 (-105) v. Cavs
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is another rematch the NBA instituted to cut down on travel and disadvantages from a scheduling perspective. So far in the season, this new scheduling perk has seen mostly 1-1 splits. I'm going against the grain here and I see the Jazz coming out covering and winning outright again tonight. They've been undervalued all season long and I will continue to pick my spots with this team moving forward before the oddsmakers adjust. I think Utah has a great offense and their propensity to play fast really puts a lot of pressure on opposing teams to keep up. We know Memphis has the firepower, but it's going to be hard being on the road in Utah. Give me the Jazz tonight to get back to back wins against the Grizzlies. They know they can play against this team.

Jazz +2.5 (-105) v. Grizzlies
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Before the rain postponement, I had a lean to the Phillies. I liked Thor coming off as a starter and then getting into the bullpen. For this game with the pitching change, Phillies will lean on Suarez and because he's a starter I think they will keep him in too long. I can envision Houston getting a read on his pitches early and often and will be able to manufacture runs in the 4th or 5th inning. I don't expect another 5-0 start for the Astros today like in games 1 and 2 but I do give them a slight advantage. And for the best team in the AL, you're rarely going to get them as such a short dog so this is value even for a favorite. I like Houston to win by 1-2 runs tonight.

Astros ML (-125) v. Phillies
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I got yesterday's game completely wrong, but I think we see a bounceback today from the Houston bats. We know they can hit Nola as they put on 5 quick runs against him in game 1. It will be up to the Houston pitching staff to keep the Phillies hot bats down. This is shaping up to be an epic series, and hopefully Houston can tie it up 2-2 tonight and give the ball to Verlander for game 5. Christian Javier has been solid a year long with a sub 2.5 ERA. And the last time we saw him, he shut out the Yankees and the Astros won 5-0. It's going to be all about the early innings. The teams have been jumping out quick, so if we can get into the later innings in a low score ball game, Houston has a great shot and a good value with as a short dog.

Astros ML (+105) v. Phillies
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

We're backing Verlander tonight! It's scary, but it's the right play considering he was the best pitcher in the AL for 162 games. He has been horrible in World Series games throughout his career, but perhaps he meets those demons today with a gem. On the other side, I'm not as confident in Noah as he'll be seeing the order just once anyways. With the Phillies manufacturing zero hits yesterday, Verlander isn't the type of guy you want to face if your confidence is down. I expect Houston to win tonight and go back home up 3-2 in the series.

Astros ML (-150) v. Phillies
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

It's scary going against the best team in the NBA, but this is a great spot for Minnesota to make an early announcement to the league that they can play with the elite teams. They've been struggling and have been up and down to start the year, but they have the talent to beat Milwaukee, especially without Middleton. I think we see a big game from Edwards tonight and the size of Towns and Gobert can "try" to slow down Giannis. You can never stop Giannis, only try to keep him around his averages. It will be up to Minnesota to hit their 3s tonight as we know Milwaukee will give up a lot of open looks.

Timberwolves +3.5 (-105) v. Bucks
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Tough game for the Longhorns this week against a quality Wildcat team. Kansas State is coming off a dominating performance against OK St so they are riding high. But I think Texas has the talent to steal this game on the road. You can do the ML if you don't want to lay the points, but under a field goal is a good play. Quinn had a terrible game last time out and with the extra week of work this week, I expect him to come out to be much more confident and much more accurate. They will also lean on Bijan Robinson to set the tone and dominate with their bruising offensive line.

Texas -2.5 (-105) v. Kansas St
3 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is a tough spots for Indy with all of their injuries today. But New England isn't a good team and that's been very apparent with their inconsistent quarterback play. I think the Colts will rely heavily on their defensive and offensive lines today to keep the score close which will give them a shot to steal the game at the end. Sam also gives the Colts a guy that protects the ball better than Matt Ryan, and someone that can move the sticks on the ground. It's a great value spot for Indy with their star RB out in Jonathan Taylor.

Colts +5 (-105) v. Patriots
2 UNITS