Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Love the value here with the home team as the small dog. I think Atlanta is slowly getting better as the season goes on and if they can lean on that offensive line and running game, I think they should be able to beat Cleveland today.

Falcons +1 (-105) v. Browns
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Love this pick, I think Baltimore should take care of business at home today, especially coming off a loss the previous time out against the Blue Jays. They are playing a double header tonight, so make sure this is for game 1. Baumann has been solid recently for Baltimore and they are the much more desperate team with an outside chance at a WC.

Baltimore ML (-140) v. Blue Jays
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great buy low spot for Houston today. They haven't played great this season, but we know they'll always be competitive because their offense is solid. I think as a less than field goal underdog on the road, oddsmakers wouldn't be surprised if they get the win outright. Houston so far has played better on the road than at home, so it could be good for them to travel up to Memphis tonight. Memphis on the other hand has won 4 straight games and look to improve to 5-1. As a regressional and contrarian bettor, I would never back this side in these situations. UNT was able to hang almost 500 yards on this defense so if Houston can replicate that type of success, I think they'll be able to get the win tonight.

Houston +2.5 v. Memphis
2 UNITS

 

[lemartinsports]

A great buy low spot for Houston today. They haven't played great this season, but we know they'll always be competitive because their offense is solid. I think as a less than field goal underdog on the road, oddsmakers wouldn't be surprised if they get the win outright. Houston so far has played better on the road than at home, so it could be good for them to travel up to Memphis tonight. Memphis on the other hand has won 4 straight games and look to improve to 5-1. As a regressional and contrarian bettor, I would never back this side in these situations. UNT was able to hang almost 500 yards on this defense so if Houston can replicate that type of success, I think they'll be able to get the win tonight.

Houston +2.5 v. Memphis
2 UNITS

aye I’m on Houston +2.5 as well. Let’s get it

 

[Analytics Capper]

aye I’m on Houston +2.5 as well. Let’s get it

nice win for us!

 

[Analytics Capper]

USC looks like the real deal thus far this season, going into the game undefeated at 5-0. However they haven't covered the spread in their last 2 games, barely squeaking by Oregon State and then beating Arizona by 17. We know the Trojan's offense is elite averaging well over 40 points a game, but the surprising part is the defense is playing very well giving up less than 20 a game. If they can take care of the ball and not turn it over, I think they win this one going away.

USC -12.5 (-105) v. Washington State
2 UNITS

 

[lemartinsports]

nice win for us!

love to see it!!! gimme some more winners hehe

 

[Analytics Capper]

A tough divisional match up so covering a double digit spread is always going to be difficult. Tampa Bay is slowly getting healthier and coming off two straight losses. The Falcons will look to play possession football and will lean on their running game throughout. The key for the Bucs will be to get out to a fast start to force Atlanta to open up their playbook which will play into the Bucs' hands. They want the game to be open and they want Brady to attempt 30+ passes.

Bucs -10 (-105) v. Falcons
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Dodgers absolutely own Clevinger. They see his pitches well, they hit him well, and they manufacture runs well against him. I think the Dodgers will jump out to an early lead and cruise to a win, so I also like the First 5 look as well. Urias has been dominant all season long and he will continue his winning ways against San Diego tonight.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5
Units: 2

 

[Analytics Capper]

Seattle is starting their season on the road tonight. It'll be a tough west coast battle against the Anaheim Ducks. But the Kraken have really improved after their offseason acquisitions. They've made a priority on their offense and I see them being much better this year scoring goals. I also lean the over tonight because I think they will net at least 3 themselves. With that being said, I'm going to back the short dog here - a lot of great value and potential CLV.

Kraken ML (+105) v. Ducks
Units: 1

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is a tough game, we know the Baylor Bears are solid and make little mistakes. But I like the home team in West Virginia tonight to get a bounce back win after losing to Texas last week. Their offense is electric at home - the over has hit in both home games for the Mountaineers. The issue will be their defense who have given up close to 30 points a game. If they can get 1-2 clutch stops late in the 4th quarter I think they will come away with the cover and the outright win.

West Virginia +3 (-110) v. Baylor
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Hockey is back! This is a great spot for the home team to get a win against a team who's already played 2 games in 3 days. Fatigue could be a factor for the Rangers and Winnipeg should be able to take advantage, especially if they jump out to a lead after the 1st period. Potential scheduling win here for the Jets.

Jets ML (-135) v. Rangers
1 UNIT

 

[Analytics Capper]

Bailey Zappe has had a decent debut to his career, but I don't full trust him yet. He's been playing cupcake competition and although Cleveland will be dealing with a lot of injuries today, this is a step up to a real NFL defense and NFL offensive line. Cleveland is also coming off an awful loss last week when Brissett threw a goal line interception and missed a FG in the finals minutes of the game. Cleveland should bounceback today and get the win and cover against an overrated Patriots team. New England's offense has zero explosiveness on the outside which will negate some of Cleveland's injuries to their skill position players on defense.

Browns -2.5 (-105) v. Patriots
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I think Denver's offense wakes up tonight against a bad Chargers defense. The Broncos have been anemic all season long, only averaging 15 points a game but their team total is set at 21 by oddsmakers tonight. I think this is a sign they feel Denver will be able to take advantage of LA's weak defense and put some points on the board. They will have to because we know Herbert and his offense will move the ball around all night.

Broncos v. Chargers over 45 (-110)
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I like the Sixers to come out and get an early lead on Boston today. Embiid should dominate Horford who has been good against him in the past, but I think we see a different story tonight. I also think Philadelphia is much deeper and much more prepared to start the season this year. They've played each preseason game seriously and are ready to prove it when the games count.

76ers 1H +1 (-105) v. Celtics
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

First game of the year for both teams. It'll be hard to gauge who will be more prepared, but I have a slight lean to the home team tonight. We are going against line movement which isn't always a smart move, but I'm going have a little more trust on vets like KD and Kyrie who have had been around the block a little more than New Orleans' stars. With that being said, I see a very competitive game and didn't want to touch the spread - just a small play on the money line.

Nets ML (-140) v. Pelicans
1 UNIT

 

[Analytics Capper]

I see UVA winning outright tonight. It'll be a tough environment going into Georgia Tech but Virginia is well coached and well balanced. They should be able to do just enough to get the cover. I was able to get this early on with the hook. I suggest buying the hook as well. The key will be turnover battle, if they can keep it equal or even win, I think this will be an easy cover.

Virginia +3.5 (-110) v. Georgia Tech
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Temple is a bad team. Tulsa should be able to move up and down the field on this defense. The difference in the cover will be whether they can convert their red zone chances into touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. If they can do this, I see Tulsa winning by at least two touchdowns tonight. Tulsa has failed to cover the last 3 games even though they've scored 21, 21, and 27 points. They will need close to 35 or 40 tonight for the cover.

Tulsa -13 (-105) v. Temple
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

A statement game for the Longhorns. Coach Sark has them playing well and their QB1 is back and healthy. If Texas' defensive line can continue to dominate the line of scrimmage, it will force OSU into bad positions and either punt or turn the ball over. I expect Texas to come out firing on all cynlinders today.

Texas -6 (-105) v. OK St
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I have a feeling we're going to see the series extended today. The Phillies are justifiably excited and are hitting out of their minds, but Darvish has been excellent this postseason and it's going to be much different than what the Padres through out there yesterday. It will be up to the San Diego offense to score 4 or more runs today and they should get the win. Hold the party, Philly, not just yet.

Padres ML (+125) v. Phillies
2 UNITS