Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot here for Lance Lynn to get Chicago back on the right track. They lost in extras last night due to some really bad mishaps, but I think they get it back tonight as they should be favored at home. The Guardians have been playing well, winning 8 of their last 10, but they had an easy route against a Twins team that gave up on their season and were hurt. The key for Chicago tonight is to work the pitch count early and often. McKenzie smoked them with 14 strike outs the last time he faced Chicago so it'll be imperative to be patient at the plate.

White Sox ML -135 v. Guardians
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

It's scary fading the red hot Yankees, but Wacha has been fantastic all season long and I think he will be able to get it done. It's a very hitter friendly park, so there is potential for a lot of runs tonight, but I think the offensive regression of New York has to hit soon. They've scored 12, 9, and 14 runs in their last 3 games and I don't think they, or any team, can sustain that type of production.

Red Sox ML +135 v. Yankees
1 Unit

 

[lemartinsports]

ok AC! nice dog play

 

[Analytics Capper]

Thanks Le - Good luck today!

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Pirates have lost 5 games in a row and 13 of their last 15 games at home. But I think it's a great spot for them today to get a win in front of their home town fans. There's not a big pitching discrepancy tonight as both starters don't have the greatest season resumes. This play is more of a regressional value look as it's between two bad teams and two bad pitchers.

Pirates ML (-115) v. Cubs
3 units

 

[lemartinsports]

The Pirates have lost 5 games in a row and 13 of their last 15 games at home. But I think it's a great spot for them today to get a win in front of their home town fans. There's not a big pitching discrepancy tonight as both starters don't have the greatest season resumes. This play is more of a regressional value look as it's between two bad teams and two bad pitchers.

Pirates ML (-115) v. Cubs
3 units

i tailed Tanko on the cubs

 

[Analytics Capper]

Love this spot for the home team. The Baylor Bears have not been impressive this season thus far and they are going into a tough environment to play. I think Iowa State gets enough done to win in a low scoring game. Hopefully a 20-10 like game.

Iowa State -2.5 (-105) v. Baylor
3 units

 

[Analytics Capper]

Love this spot for the home team. The Baylor Bears have not been impressive this season thus far and they are going into a tough environment to play. I think Iowa State gets enough done to win in a low scoring game. Hopefully a 20-10 like game.

Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (-105) v. Baylor
Units: 3

 

[Wagerallsports]

Love this spot for the home team. The Baylor Bears have not been impressive this season thus far and they are going into a tough environment to play. I think Iowa State gets enough done to win in a low scoring game. Hopefully a 20-10 like game.

Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (-105) v. Baylor
Units: 3

GL with the play

I'm on the over Here

 

[Analytics Capper]

Strong spot here for the road team to get their first win. The Seahawks team is struggling, especially on offense, even though they are sitting at 1-1. I think Mariotta will be able to get outside with his legs and also get the ball to his playmakers. I think Atlanta should win by a couple scores today.

Pick: Falcons +1 (-105) v. Seahawks
3 Units

 

[lemartinsports]

Strong spot here for the road team to get their first win. The Seahawks team is struggling, especially on offense, even though they are sitting at 1-1. I think Mariotta will be able to get outside with his legs and also get the ball to his playmakers. I think Atlanta should win by a couple scores today.

Pick: Falcons +1 (-105) v. Seahawks
3 Units

ayeee congrats with the falcons. will you be posting anything for tonight's game?

 

[Analytics Capper]

Thanks Le - probably a baseball play for the BMR fam tonight

 

[lemartinsports]

Thanks Le - probably a baseball play for the BMR fam tonight

ok will stay tuned!!

 

[Analytics Capper]

Two solid pitchers on the mound tonight. Both teams have some very high level power hitters, but oftentimes doesn't get the necessary hits with runners in scoring position to produce runs. I'm hoping that trend continues tonight and that the pitchers stay ahead of the count as they work through the line up. Both Severino and Gausman have sub 3.5 ERA's and Gausman is coming off 2 straight losses. He should have a good bounce back outing tonight.

Yankees v. Rangers under 7.5 (-105)
1 Unit

 

[Analytics Capper]

It's always a bit scary to go against the best team in the league, but this is a pretty good spot for the Padres. The San Diego bats have woken up as of late and starter Blake Snell has been considerably better in the last month. The Padres are in the middle of a very competitive wild card battle with San Diego, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee gunning for 1 spot. Tonight is the start of the last series between these two teams and for San Diego to stay ahead in the playoff race, they need to win this series.

Padres ML (-105) v. Dodgers
1 Unit

 

[Analytics Capper]

Springs is on the mound for the Rays and he's had a fantastic year so far with an ERA sitting at 2.56. He's won his last 3 starts in a row and is in good rhythm. As a team, this is a solid bounceback spot for the Rays since they are coming off a disappointing 1-2 loss to Cleveland last night even though they outhit the Guardians. Regressionally, this should be a great value play in terms of expected runs.

Rays ML (-120) v. Guardians
2 units

 

[Analytics Capper]

deGrom hasn't pitched well as of late, but I'm always going to trust my guy. It's a great bounceback spot for him and the Mets offense has been playing much better as of late. It's always scary to go against Atlanta at home, but going to trust it here.

Mets ML (-125) v. Braves
2 units

 

[lemartinsports]

bounceback day, lets go ac

 

[Analytics Capper]

I hope so! have a great weekend

 

[Analytics Capper]

Both teams coming off very impressive wins last week as heavy underdogs. But that's what happens in conference play each week. I think the Wildcats will take care of business today against a scrappy Texas Tech team. Kansas State's offense has shown glimpses of being elite, including dropping over 500 yards on OU last week. We know head to head, KState has dominated this matchup in recent history winning 9 of the last 10 games straight up and covering in 7 of those.

Kansas State -7.5 (-105) v. Texas Tech
2 UNITS