stormtrooper8
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Knew I should’ve gotten in earlier
Bucs -1.5 +100
Write up later
Bucs -1.5 +100
Write up later
Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022
- Thread starter stormtrooper8
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I really like this play. A LOT of people are on the Ravens.
I think the Bucs win this one tonight. Anxious to see your views on the game.
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
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- 11,163
Overall record: 22-24-1 -3.50
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Early Week 8 play (posted earlier, buy accordingly)
Bucs -1.5 +100
I think this is a nice spot for Tampa. Baltimore is banged up a little bit on both sides of the ball, but even beyond that this is not a great match-up for them.
As down as everyone is currently on the Bucs, they still have a very good defense and one that can be effective in stopping the run. While the Carolina game wasn't a good illustration of this, I think the gaffe there provides some clear adjustments that the coaching staff will make. Call it "bulletin board" material -- I just don't see that run defense being penetrated again.
The main reason I like them though is the perimeter match-ups (on both sides of the ball).
When Tampa has the ball, they should have a huge advantage in terms of their perimeter weapons against Baltimore's extremely vulnerable secondary. The Ravens pass rush has shown glimpses of improvement, but hardly anything to be super confident in. They're going to need to really rush Brady to take away that perimeter edge, and I'm not sure they can do that consistently even against a suspect offensive line.
I also think this is a good spot for Tampa's secondary. If Tampa can slow down the Ravens' running game and force Lamar to beat them through the air, that's a good scenario as Baltimore is really lacking in the pass game right now -- not just from Lamar, but by his weapons as well. Tampa simply has a personnel advantage there
A couple other things: Short week, Thursday night --> typically favoring the home team
And: Reverse line movement! Money moving in on the Ravens, yet the line moving the opposite way. Good sign
I think this is a nice spot for the Bucs. Gonna take em here!
Rest of card tomorrow or Saturday
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Early Week 8 play (posted earlier, buy accordingly)
Bucs -1.5 +100
I think this is a nice spot for Tampa. Baltimore is banged up a little bit on both sides of the ball, but even beyond that this is not a great match-up for them.
As down as everyone is currently on the Bucs, they still have a very good defense and one that can be effective in stopping the run. While the Carolina game wasn't a good illustration of this, I think the gaffe there provides some clear adjustments that the coaching staff will make. Call it "bulletin board" material -- I just don't see that run defense being penetrated again.
The main reason I like them though is the perimeter match-ups (on both sides of the ball).
When Tampa has the ball, they should have a huge advantage in terms of their perimeter weapons against Baltimore's extremely vulnerable secondary. The Ravens pass rush has shown glimpses of improvement, but hardly anything to be super confident in. They're going to need to really rush Brady to take away that perimeter edge, and I'm not sure they can do that consistently even against a suspect offensive line.
I also think this is a good spot for Tampa's secondary. If Tampa can slow down the Ravens' running game and force Lamar to beat them through the air, that's a good scenario as Baltimore is really lacking in the pass game right now -- not just from Lamar, but by his weapons as well. Tampa simply has a personnel advantage there
A couple other things: Short week, Thursday night --> typically favoring the home team
And: Reverse line movement! Money moving in on the Ravens, yet the line moving the opposite way. Good sign
I think this is a nice spot for the Bucs. Gonna take em here!
Rest of card tomorrow or Saturday
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
Overall: 55-51-2
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
ATS picks for Week 8. Lines based on the Hilton style contest I'm in
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
ATS picks for Week 8. Lines based on the Hilton style contest I'm in
Nice write up. I'm on Bucs as well so lets cash...
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
Let's get it
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
Rest of card.
Cardinals +3.5 -105
This is a good spot for the Cardinals I think. Minnesota has done a better job of closing out competitive games -- something they really struggled with a year ago. And 1pm Kirk Cousins is never someone that you should take lightly, but I think Arizona is starting to figure a few things out.
I think Hopkins' return is a lot more significant than people realize, and I think his presence is going to help Arizona out quite a bit against a secondary that isn't bad, but definitely nothing special. Arizona also has been a nice team to bet when they travel East it seems like; that goes against intuition, but I think that is a not a complete non-factor here.
I do think Minnesota will be able to run the ball here, but I view it as a competitive game that could be either team winning by a field goal. So I'll take the 3.5
Patriots -2.5 -115 + Patriots ML -140
I love how New York has played and obviously New England has been underwhelming and kind of a mess at times, but them being favored on the road here should tell you enough. And as the money is starting to trickle in on the Jets, the line still looks bound to get to 3. Good sign
The Bill vs. bad, young QB angle backfired last week, but it should be noted that Bill also really struggles with mobile QB's. Wilson can move, but he ain't no Fields. Breece Hall is a big loss for the Jets, but honestly I don't think New York was going to be able to run the ball much anyway when you have Bill lighting into this defense for a solid week in practice. That unit is going to play better.
The Jets have been a good story, but I haven't seen much to indicate that they can sustain winning football from their offense. They kinda got away with one against Denver given the non-PI call. The Broncos also kind of moved the ball on them if you were watching the game closely.
I don't think it's a pretty game per se, but I think the Patriots get it done.
Dolphins/Lions over 51.5 -105
Taking a trip into the totals market for this one. I went back and forth on the side, but couldn't quite pull the trigger on either one. I do think we see a lot of points in this one though.
While Hill and Waddle are a little bit overhyped as a WR duo, I think they should be able to feast against a Lions secondary that is.....bad. It's a bad match-up for those poor corners.
Miami held Pittsburgh to 10, but the Steelers were able to move the ball pretty well against them. Dolphins got bailed out by some turnovers there. I think the Lions should be able to find some holes in the Dolphins' defense.
Think this is a track meet.
Raiders -1.5 +100
I see a lot of people on New Orleans this week, and I think there are arguments to be made for this being a nice spot coming back home for them, with life in an otherwise lifeless division, but i think Las Vegas is the play here.
I just think this team is pretty damn good, especially offensively. Josh Jacobs and the running game being able to be as efficient as they have these last few games has really opened up a lot for Carr and the rest of the offense. Having that kind of threat makes the play-action so effective, and you can see Carr now playing with a freedom that he lacked in the first few games. New Orleans' defense has truly been in shambles this season, and I don't how they counter a rolling Raiders offense
On the other side, New Orleans offense just seems to lack any sort of consistent rhythm or continuity. A lot of their stats are deceptive -- picking up yardage in games where they are out of it, going against bad defense, etc. They have lot of problems on both sides of the ball.
Despite this being an opportunity for New Orleans to crawl back into the division race, I like Las Vegas a lot here.
Colts -3 +105
There's a weird energy around this Indy team after being swept by the Titans and then making a pretty big switch at this point in the season, given they are very much alive in their division. But I think this is a nice spot for them.
Teams tend to play well in the first game when they have a backup/new QB in....just take a look at the opposing sideline for reference. I think you see a gritty effort from this Colts team on offense for that reason. Washington's defense is playing a little better, but I think Ehlinger's ability to move outside the pocket may give the Colts a nice dimension that the Commanders aren't quite prepared for.
I also think Colts defense should match up well with Washington. They're not stout, or at least haven't been, but they're better than they've shown and I think they can bottle up a Commanders team that I think comes back down to earth a bit after a couple wins. Give me the Ponies.
Seahawks ML -140
This game is a lot more intriguing than we all thought it'd be preseason. We were envisioning two tanking teams fighting for the CJ Stroud sweepstakes. But nope, this is a battle with potential playoff implications
I think this very well could be a close battle, but I think the lack of Giants ability to exploit Seattle's weakness on the backend of their is the difference. Daniel Jones has been productive on the ground and in the sense that he hasn't been turning the ball over to opponents, but he has been an absolute train-wreck when asked to actually read defense and make tough throws. Not having perimeter weapons isn't helping, but Jones' production through the air is not sustainable if the Giants want to actually make noise and be a player in the NFC playoff picture.
I love how Seattle's offense is playing. It's not just Geno -- the running game has really come on and is building out the vision that I think Pete Carroll had when he wanted to get rid of Russ. Awesome to see, and I think at home they have another nice showing.
Honestly I'm just glad this game has some flare to it. Looking forward to it.
Packers +11 -105
Even though I hate Aaron Rodgers, and he has not given me much reason to deviate from that position from either a douchebag standpoint or a betting standpoint, I am going to take his team and the points here.
Buffalo may very well come out and eviscerate these guys, but I think Green Bay bounces back enough to the point where they at least keep this game close. I am waiting for the game that they actually utilize their strength -- the running game, and I think they may be more successful in that area than one might think against this defense.
Some times come out hot after a bye, but I think it's more likely we see a slightly flat Bills team. They will get it going at some point in the game, and I do think they pull out a win here, but I don't think it's going to be a pretty one for them. Green Bay is formidable on the back end that Allen may struggle a bit through the air, so they will need to be reliant a bit more on their RB's than they are used to.
Bengals -2 -130 (buying point)
I know buying points is a hot topic on the board right now, but I think it's a decent idea in a game like this. I think with or without Chase, this game was going to be cautionary for a Bengals team that is starting to figure it out.
I don't think it's necessarily a trap spot, but Cleveland has given them a few issues recently and divisional road games are not easy. Pretty much every great team has clunkers now and then, and this could be it.
Having said that, the way that Burrow has played late in games has been nothing short of awesome (well, he's been awesome in the whole game recently) Even in the 3 losses, Burrow led this team down the field late in the 4th quarter to either tie or take the lead. The guy is just special.
I could see a game where the Browns play with a bit of desperation and they get some nice production out of their running game. They may linger around a bit here, before Burrow leads the Bengals down the field for a McPherson kick at the end. So I do think the key number of 3 could have some significance here, though I normally am not one to bat an eye at that kind of thing.
If Cincy does rattle these boys though, then I'll take it
Probably gonna play a Bengals prop too, but not sure which one yet. Stay tuned
Good luck
Cardinals +3.5 -105
This is a good spot for the Cardinals I think. Minnesota has done a better job of closing out competitive games -- something they really struggled with a year ago. And 1pm Kirk Cousins is never someone that you should take lightly, but I think Arizona is starting to figure a few things out.
I think Hopkins' return is a lot more significant than people realize, and I think his presence is going to help Arizona out quite a bit against a secondary that isn't bad, but definitely nothing special. Arizona also has been a nice team to bet when they travel East it seems like; that goes against intuition, but I think that is a not a complete non-factor here.
I do think Minnesota will be able to run the ball here, but I view it as a competitive game that could be either team winning by a field goal. So I'll take the 3.5
Patriots -2.5 -115 + Patriots ML -140
I love how New York has played and obviously New England has been underwhelming and kind of a mess at times, but them being favored on the road here should tell you enough. And as the money is starting to trickle in on the Jets, the line still looks bound to get to 3. Good sign
The Bill vs. bad, young QB angle backfired last week, but it should be noted that Bill also really struggles with mobile QB's. Wilson can move, but he ain't no Fields. Breece Hall is a big loss for the Jets, but honestly I don't think New York was going to be able to run the ball much anyway when you have Bill lighting into this defense for a solid week in practice. That unit is going to play better.
The Jets have been a good story, but I haven't seen much to indicate that they can sustain winning football from their offense. They kinda got away with one against Denver given the non-PI call. The Broncos also kind of moved the ball on them if you were watching the game closely.
I don't think it's a pretty game per se, but I think the Patriots get it done.
Dolphins/Lions over 51.5 -105
Taking a trip into the totals market for this one. I went back and forth on the side, but couldn't quite pull the trigger on either one. I do think we see a lot of points in this one though.
While Hill and Waddle are a little bit overhyped as a WR duo, I think they should be able to feast against a Lions secondary that is.....bad. It's a bad match-up for those poor corners.
Miami held Pittsburgh to 10, but the Steelers were able to move the ball pretty well against them. Dolphins got bailed out by some turnovers there. I think the Lions should be able to find some holes in the Dolphins' defense.
Think this is a track meet.
Raiders -1.5 +100
I see a lot of people on New Orleans this week, and I think there are arguments to be made for this being a nice spot coming back home for them, with life in an otherwise lifeless division, but i think Las Vegas is the play here.
I just think this team is pretty damn good, especially offensively. Josh Jacobs and the running game being able to be as efficient as they have these last few games has really opened up a lot for Carr and the rest of the offense. Having that kind of threat makes the play-action so effective, and you can see Carr now playing with a freedom that he lacked in the first few games. New Orleans' defense has truly been in shambles this season, and I don't how they counter a rolling Raiders offense
On the other side, New Orleans offense just seems to lack any sort of consistent rhythm or continuity. A lot of their stats are deceptive -- picking up yardage in games where they are out of it, going against bad defense, etc. They have lot of problems on both sides of the ball.
Despite this being an opportunity for New Orleans to crawl back into the division race, I like Las Vegas a lot here.
Colts -3 +105
There's a weird energy around this Indy team after being swept by the Titans and then making a pretty big switch at this point in the season, given they are very much alive in their division. But I think this is a nice spot for them.
Teams tend to play well in the first game when they have a backup/new QB in....just take a look at the opposing sideline for reference. I think you see a gritty effort from this Colts team on offense for that reason. Washington's defense is playing a little better, but I think Ehlinger's ability to move outside the pocket may give the Colts a nice dimension that the Commanders aren't quite prepared for.
I also think Colts defense should match up well with Washington. They're not stout, or at least haven't been, but they're better than they've shown and I think they can bottle up a Commanders team that I think comes back down to earth a bit after a couple wins. Give me the Ponies.
Seahawks ML -140
This game is a lot more intriguing than we all thought it'd be preseason. We were envisioning two tanking teams fighting for the CJ Stroud sweepstakes. But nope, this is a battle with potential playoff implications
I think this very well could be a close battle, but I think the lack of Giants ability to exploit Seattle's weakness on the backend of their is the difference. Daniel Jones has been productive on the ground and in the sense that he hasn't been turning the ball over to opponents, but he has been an absolute train-wreck when asked to actually read defense and make tough throws. Not having perimeter weapons isn't helping, but Jones' production through the air is not sustainable if the Giants want to actually make noise and be a player in the NFC playoff picture.
I love how Seattle's offense is playing. It's not just Geno -- the running game has really come on and is building out the vision that I think Pete Carroll had when he wanted to get rid of Russ. Awesome to see, and I think at home they have another nice showing.
Honestly I'm just glad this game has some flare to it. Looking forward to it.
Packers +11 -105
Even though I hate Aaron Rodgers, and he has not given me much reason to deviate from that position from either a douchebag standpoint or a betting standpoint, I am going to take his team and the points here.
Buffalo may very well come out and eviscerate these guys, but I think Green Bay bounces back enough to the point where they at least keep this game close. I am waiting for the game that they actually utilize their strength -- the running game, and I think they may be more successful in that area than one might think against this defense.
Some times come out hot after a bye, but I think it's more likely we see a slightly flat Bills team. They will get it going at some point in the game, and I do think they pull out a win here, but I don't think it's going to be a pretty one for them. Green Bay is formidable on the back end that Allen may struggle a bit through the air, so they will need to be reliant a bit more on their RB's than they are used to.
Bengals -2 -130 (buying point)
I know buying points is a hot topic on the board right now, but I think it's a decent idea in a game like this. I think with or without Chase, this game was going to be cautionary for a Bengals team that is starting to figure it out.
I don't think it's necessarily a trap spot, but Cleveland has given them a few issues recently and divisional road games are not easy. Pretty much every great team has clunkers now and then, and this could be it.
Having said that, the way that Burrow has played late in games has been nothing short of awesome (well, he's been awesome in the whole game recently) Even in the 3 losses, Burrow led this team down the field late in the 4th quarter to either tie or take the lead. The guy is just special.
I could see a game where the Browns play with a bit of desperation and they get some nice production out of their running game. They may linger around a bit here, before Burrow leads the Bengals down the field for a McPherson kick at the end. So I do think the key number of 3 could have some significance here, though I normally am not one to bat an eye at that kind of thing.
If Cincy does rattle these boys though, then I'll take it
Probably gonna play a Bengals prop too, but not sure which one yet. Stay tuned
Good luck
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
tl;dr
Bucs -1.5 (loss)
Cardinals +3.5
Patriots -2.5 & ML
Dolphins/Lions over 51.5
Raiders -1.5
Seahawks ML
Colts -3
Packers +11
Bengals -2 (bought point)
Bengals prop TBD
Bucs -1.5 (loss)
Cardinals +3.5
Patriots -2.5 & ML
Dolphins/Lions over 51.5
Raiders -1.5
Seahawks ML
Colts -3
Packers +11
Bengals -2 (bought point)
Bengals prop TBD
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
What are you on???You, my friend, should have an outstanding week with that card. Why? Because none of those are on my card.
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
We are gonna hold off on the prop play
Chance to ride out with a profitable week so let’s keep it there.
Time for Stormy to be a mature man and learn from his mistakes
No more getting titty fucked
Chance to ride out with a profitable week so let’s keep it there.
Time for Stormy to be a mature man and learn from his mistakes
No more getting titty fucked
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 52,914
Nearly .500
Not too bad
Iong way to go
Not too bad
Iong way to go
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
How long, how lonnnnng will I slide?
5-10 Week 8 ATS
60-61-2 overall ATS
yikes yikes yikes
lemartinsports
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2022
- Messages
- 11,848
This weekend was so brutal 
have a feeling this week will be better
have a feeling this week will be betterstormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 11,163
Igor toy cryingThis weekend was so brutal
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
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- 11,163
Overall: 60-61-2
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10
ATS picks for Week 9. Lines based on the Hilton style contest I'm in.
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10
ATS picks for Week 9. Lines based on the Hilton style contest I'm in.
lemartinsports
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2022
- Messages
- 11,848
love all of these except chicago and cardinals so far
feels like a good week here. good luck stormy
stormtrooper8
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- May 30, 2022
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I hope so bro. Picks might be a little different strategy this week.GL Stormtrooper. This is the week you break it open and jump ahead of the 0.500 mark.
Stay tuned
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