Overall record: 34-35-1 -3.35
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action
Week 13
Texans +7.5 -110
Talked about this game a little bit in another thread. I'm glad it moved out to 7.5. I don't love the idea of throwing money at a team as dreadful at Houston, but this line is a little bit too heavy.
Cleveland is the better team, but integrating a new quarterback and asking them to cover more than a touchdown on the road seems like a little too tough of a task. I also think as bad as Houston is, they have shown at least pockets of games (mostly early in the season) where they at least can fight if motivated. I think lately they've stopped fighting altogether, but I do think DeShaun coming back is going to be a little bit a of a motivator for this team at home.
The Browns also have been much pluckier as a dog than as a favorite in these spots. Usually the Browns really let you down when they are supposed to win/control a game, and I think this is a spot where they don't play their best and Houston at least hangs around.
Lions -1 -105
I tend not to not love short faves in these spots, but I do like Detroit to pull out a win in this one.
Jacksonville has a decent run defense, but they can be had over the top. Lamar didn't play a great game, but he was able to make some plays, especially late, against a very vulnerable secondary. I could see Detroit's receivers, who have seemed to heat up a bit, find some success
Detroit is obviously not a defensive juggernaut, but they have been playing a little bit better as of late. I thought their secondary played very well against Buffalo, good enough for them to win.
I also love the fact that they had a few extra days to get ready for this one, while Jacksonville comes off an emotional, dramatic win. A little edge to the home team there.
Broncos +9 -105
If you look at just the teams so far on the card, it looks pretty bad LMAO. I can't believe I'm doing this....but I'm taking Denver
I think the Ravens are going to have a hard time moving the ball on the Broncos defense. Baltimore is more of a college-style team, and their running game seems to be legit no matter who they have back there with Lamar, but I think Denver has the personnel to keep Lamar and the gang in check. I also don't love how Lamar has looked through the air recently -- seems like he's struggled enough for it to be a true pattern and not a blip.
The Broncos also feel like they've hit rock-bottom in a sense, and I do think we at least seem some sort of bounce back for that reason. Particularly, as much as I don't like the guy, I think Russ will actually have an OK game against a secondary that is still suspect. If their line can contain and improving Baltimore defensive front, then I think Russ actually will make enough plays to keep this competitive.
Enough to win outright? Probably not. But I think 9 is a little rich. Gimme Denver
Raiders ML +110
Think this game is going to shift a bit in the Raiders direction, so I like grabbing it early. The Raiders have done me some damage this year, and I don't love their defense, but I do think they are starting to find an identity offensively.
I really like how they've gotten Jacobs going this year, one of the bright sports. I don't see how the Chargers run defense is going to be able to slow him down. That's an Achilles heal for them, and I simply don't think the Chargers have the answers there
I do think LA will be able to score a bit (could be worth looking at the over), but I thin it'll be tough for them and their injuries to win a game like this on the road against a divisional rival that's at least showing a little life.
49ers -2.5 -130 (buying point)
I really like SF in this one. Double-dipping on it.
Miami has been playing well, there's no doubt about it, but they've been mostly getting it done against meh competition. They are about to embark on a pretty brutal closing portion of the schedule, and I think they will struggle quite a bit.
As explosive as their passing game has been, I am not impressed by their running game and I certainly can't see them having much success against this kind of defense. On the other side of the ball, I think Miami still has some vulnerability and I think the Niners, even with Mitchell out and some guys banged up, are going to be able to find some success in the passing game
Maybe Miami makes a roaring comeback late or finds a way to make it a field goal game, so I am going to buy the point. But I don't think it comes to that. I just think SF's talent on both sides of the ball is going to wear them down, and I think it's a bad match-up all the way around for them.
Bucs -2.5 -130 (buying point)
Tough loss for Tampa in Cleveland, but their fate is pretty much set in terms of what they can accomplish: win the division and be the 4 seed. There's not much movement from that, and so I don't think any loss for them is going to handicap them in any sort of way
They obviously are not a great team, but they are a much better team than New Orleans despite the Saints only being 1.5 games out technically. The Saints are just too much of a mess on offense, and I don't think it's the QB's fault. They just aren't well-coached, don't run a good offense, and don't really have the personnel.
I think New Orleans can limit Tampa here and possibly keep this close, hence I am going to buy a point just like the previous game. But ultimately Brady will make enough plays to win this game by at least 3.
Might add something for KC/Cincy. Haven't decided yet.
Good luck
