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stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
11,154
Overall: 84-78-3
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10
Week 9: 8-4-1
Week 10: 7-7
Weeks 11-12: No plays posted
Week 13: 9-6


ATS plays for Week 14. Lines based on the Hilton contest I'm in...


Screen Shot 2022-12-08 at 10.07.35 AM.png
 
Last edited:

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
11,154
Overall record: 38-37-1 -1.65
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action
Week 13: 4-2 +1.70


Week 14 plays


Titans -2.5 -125 (buying point)

I think Tennessee gets it done this weekend. This is an interesting game between two teams coming off very bad performances.

I think the motivation level will be higher for the Titans, given they still have their ceiling/goal very much within their grasp at 7-5, and likely destined to be the 4 seed in the playoff picture. I do think they will come out wanting to further seal that fate, while Jacksonville is kind of already starting to look towards next season.

I also think the Jags defense is really starting to deteriorate, and even though Jacksonville is serviceable against the run, I don't think they will be able to slow down Henry. I think Tennessee doesn't have to play a perfect game to win at home by a field goal, and so I like betting them at 2.5


Bengals ML + Seahawks ML parlay +115

Going with a two-teamer! Kind of rare, but think there is decent value in this.

The Browns have been an issue for the Bengals for a while, but I think the matter of which Cleveland won on Monday Night Football will be enough motivation for the Bengals to be pretty energized for this one, even if there is somewhat of a mini-hangover effect from the big win against the Chiefs. I also think the offensive line is a lot more serviceable and ready to combat Garrett and others that will try to rush Burrow.

I'm also not sold on this offense with Watson back. I actually think in a lot of ways they're worse, as Watson doesn't seem to have the recent experience under his belt.

In the other, Seattle defense appears to be coming a part a little bit and with Carolina seemingly to still be alive, this could be a competitive game. I just don't think the Panthers quite have the offensive pieces to fully take advantage of the problems with that Seahawk defense, and so I think that while this game could be close, I do like Seattle to find a way to win the game. It's a game where the spread seems to be a stay away, but I like Seattle to win at that price.


Chargers +3 +110

Kind of a weird game, but I do like the Chargers quite a decent bit here.

They always seem to find themselves in a close game, and so I do think we are looking at another one here. I understand their home field isn't much, but I think Miami being out in California for the second game in a row does matter a bit.

I don't think that much separates these teams, and I also think the match-up could be nice to the Chargers here. LA's run defense lacks, but Miami really has been ineffective running the ball. The Chargers also do have Herbert, and I don't trust Miami's secondary very much right now.

Getting 3 points at home, I think it's a solid bet that Chargers can stay within that number and have a great shot to win the game outright. I'll take the points.



Patriots -1.5 -115 and ML -125

I really like New England on Monday night. I know they've had a couple shaky performances, but I think this is the right spot for them to have a bounce back.

I think the Cardinals feel like they are done and I have a hard time seeing them be motivated here. They are a sloppy team and very undisciplined, and that's exactly the type of team Belichick historically can feast on.

I think the Patriots will be able to move the ball pretty fluidly throughout the game, and get a fair share of balance from the passing and running games. I think when you combine all that with the general sense of urgency they have in the playoff hunt, things bode well for them.

Gimme da Pats



Might add one, TBD

Good luck!
 
Last edited:

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
11,154
Overall record: 38-37-1 -1.65
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action
Week 13: 4-2 +1.70


Week 14 plays


Titans -2.5 -125 (buying point)

I think Tennessee gets it done this weekend. This is an interesting game between two teams coming off very bad performances.

I think the motivation level will be higher for the Titans, given they still have their ceiling/goal very much within their grasp at 7-5, and likely destined to be the 4 seed in the playoff picture. I do think they will come out wanting to further seal that fate, while Jacksonville is kind of already starting to look towards next season.

I also think the Jags defense is really starting to deteriorate, and even though Jacksonville is serviceable against the run, I don't think they will be able to slow down Henry. I think Tennessee doesn't have to play a perfect game to win at home by a field goal, and so I like betting them at 2.5


Bengals ML + Seahawks ML parlay +115

Going with a two-teamer! Kind of rare, but think there is decent value in this.

The Browns have been an issue for the Bengals for a while, but I think the matter of which Cleveland won on Monday Night Football will be enough motivation for the Bengals to be pretty energized for this one, even if there is somewhat of a mini-hangover effect from the big win against the Chiefs. I also think the offensive line is a lot more serviceable and ready to combat Garrett and others that will try to rush Burrow.

I'm also not sold on this offense with Watson back. I actually think in a lot of ways they're worse, as Watson doesn't seem to have the recent experience under his belt.

In the other, Seattle defense appears to be coming a part a little bit and with Carolina seemingly to still be alive, this could be a competitive game. I just don't think the Panthers quite have the offensive pieces to fully take advantage of the problems with that Seahawk defense, and so I think that while this game could be close, I do like Seattle to find a way to win the game. It's a game where the spread seems to be a stay away, but I like Seattle to win at that price.


Chargers +3 +110

Kind of a weird game, but I do like the Chargers quite a decent bit here.

They always seem to find themselves in a close game, and so I do think we are looking at another one here. I understand their home field isn't much, but I think Miami being out in California for the second game in a row does matter a bit.

I don't think that much separates these teams, and I also think the match-up could be nice to the Chargers here. LA's run defense lacks, but Miami really has been ineffective running the ball. The Chargers also do have Herbert, and I don't trust Miami's secondary very much right now.

Getting 3 points at home, I think it's a solid bet that Chargers can stay within that number and have a great shot to win the game outright. I'll take the points.



Patriots -1.5 -115 and ML -125

I really like New England on Monday night. I know they've had a couple shaky performances, but I think this is the right spot for them to have a bounce back.

I think the Cardinals feel like they are done and I have a hard time seeing them be motivated here. They are a sloppy team and very undisciplined, and that's exactly the type of team Belichick historically can feast on.

I think the Patriots will be able to move the ball pretty fluidly throughout the game, and get a fair share of balance from the passing and running games. I think when you combine all that with the general sense of urgency they have in the playoff hunt, things bode well for them.

Gimme da Pats



Might add one, TBD

Good luck!
3-2 +0.85 Week 14

41-39-1 -0.80 overall
 
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