Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[Tanko]

Could have easily been a + week Stormtrooper if KC had come through. Any plays on tonights game?

 

[stormtrooper8]

Could have easily been a + week Stormtrooper if KC had come through. Any plays on tonights game?

Yeah I have no regrets over my take on that one. Would wager those both again. Very 50/50 game, tip of the cap to Allen making that drive and KC making one or two too many mistakes to put the Bills away.

I am probably going to pass on tonight. I don't trust either of these teams and I'm not much of a total guy. I lean Chargers if anything, but it's been shown that they are pretty overrated.

Two overrated teams

My college week made up for my pro week, so probably going to leave it as a profitable weekend even if disappointing in NFL

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 17-17-1 -0.10
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15


Week 6

Chiefs +3 -120 and Chiefs ML +130

This could obviously make or break my week in a lot of ways, but I'm going to go ahead and take the Chiefs. My vid got eff'd up, but my rationale essentially was how good Mahomes has been as an underdog in career. He is (8 games): 6-2 SU, 7-0-1 ATS, with a passer rating of 116.2 (28/8 TD-INT, 326.6 ypg). This is Mahomes' first such game at Arrowhead as an underdog, so it will be interesting to see how his history translates to that.

Buffalo has a very high ceiling and could obviously win this game, but there is enough evidence out there to show that they still are a little too reliant on Allen when they can't get their running game going with Singletary. As good as Allen is, this team really struggles when they ask him to be their entire offense. I also worry about their injuries on defense, and if that may hold em back in a game like this.

There is also the issue of coaching here: I think the Chiefs have a massive edge in this department. Not only do they have Andy Reid -- AKA a play-design genius -- but they also have a tendency to execute well in late-half/game situations. The Bills really struggle in tight, competitive games. Before their narrow win in Baltimore, they had lost 7 consecutive one score games. Their previous 19 wins had all been by double-digits. I don't see this game being a blowout, and I think as long as the Chiefs hang around, you have to like their chances at home when situational play-calling and close-game experience comes into play.

If we lose these, so be it. You can't fault yourself for taking points with Mahomes at home. It's literally the first time we've ever had this opportunity.


Colts -2 -105

I am not a big fan of Indy in the big picture. But I do like the Colts in a revenge spot.

I think the Jags got a little too much hype after their win over the Chargers. They have a legitimate defense and I do see Jacksonville being able to slow down Indy's run game. But I think Ryan is going to figure out the back end of the Jags' defense, which is still quite a bit spotty.

I really like how Indy's defense is trending now. I think they are starting to figure things out on that end, and they are facing a team that I think is regressing back to the norm offensively. That's a combo that I really like here, and I view Indy be able to hold Lawrence and co. down.


Bengals ML -130

I'm back on my boys for this week. Coming off a tough loss in prime time, I think Cincinnati responds and comes out with a sense of urgency against a medicore New Orleans team

I think the key match-up in this game is the Bengals defensive line against the offensive line of the Saints. I think there is a huge mismatch here on that front -- Cincy's defensive line is pretty filthy, one of the best in the league. Meanwhile the Saints offensive line is pretty weak -- don't let them beating Seattle fool you. Also Hendrickson is playing his former team, which isn't a deciding angle but something to consider IMO.

I also think we finally see an opportunity for the Bengals offense to pop a bit. I think with Higgins back and some favorable match-ups in the secondary against a disappointing defense, the Bengals will be able to attack New Orleans through the air. This is sort of a homecoming as well for Burrow/Chase, and I think the hook up for a score and a good day overall.


Packers -7 -110

I'll keep this one short and simple. I know the Jets are coming off a game in which they put a 40-burger, and I know Green Bay shit the bed. But I think this is a nice and comfortable win for the Packers back home.

The defense has been disappointing the last couple of games for Green Bay (honestly, they have been pretty much the whole season thus far), but I think this is an opportunity for them to get back on track -- against a team with an inexperienced and inaccurate quarterback who is probably feeling a little too good about himself after beating two depleted teams.

The Jets have some playmakers in their secondary now -- Gardner has been pretty fantastic. But I don't see how the Jets defense holds up against Green Bay's running attack. Even though the play calling of Matt LeFleur has left a lot to be desired for the Packers offense, I think he simplfies the game plan here and relies on their ground game to get the job done.

2-4 -2.30 Week 6
19-21-1 -2.40 overall

We bounce back this week

 

[stormtrooper8]

ATS picks for Week 6. Lines are based on the ones used in the Hilton style contest I'm in

Overall: 43-35-2
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1

View attachment 6554

6-8 Week 6
49-43-2 overall

 

[nymets11]

Good thread Storm. Subscribed.

 

[Tanko]

This really is a good thread.
I've been reading it every update.
Thanks for posting Stormtrooper.

 

[lemartinsports]

This really is a good thread.
I've been reading it every update.
Thanks for posting Stormtrooper.

agree 100%. gotta love the transparency too

 

[stormtrooper8]

Good thread Storm. Subscribed.

This really is a good thread.
I've been reading it every update.
Thanks for posting Stormtrooper.

agree 100%. gotta love the transparency too

Thanks fam. Hopefully I can turn it around soon

 

[stormtrooper8]

ATS picks for Week 7. Lines are based on the ones used in the Hilton style contest I'm in

Overall: 49-43-2
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8

 

[Tanko]

There is only two games I do not match with on your list Stormtrooper. CIN/ATL and NYJ/DEN.
Wow. Sorry, that means you are likely screwed because NFL is not my friend.

Comments:
TB by 11 over Carolina. Carolina sucks but TB is in turmoil. I have TB on my list of potential games but damn, the drama.

ATL - 6-0 ATS... Just saying.

Thanks for the plays.
GL

 

[stormtrooper8]

There is only two games I do not match with on your list Stormtrooper. CIN/ATL and NYJ/DEN.
Wow. Sorry, that means you are likely screwed because NFL is not my friend.

Comments:
TB by 11 over Carolina. Carolina sucks but TB is in turmoil. I have TB on my list of potential games but damn, the drama.

ATL - 6-0 ATS... Just saying.

Thanks for the plays.
GL

Very interesting that we are in agreement.

I really do not like the board this week in general. Like my mind if being twisted and turned in a lot of directions with some of these games. Just awful.

I was pretty torn on Falcons/Bengals. Originally had Atlanta, because Cincy's a little banged up on it's front 7 (Reader, Wilson) and Falcons can run the ball well. That worries me a bit. But.....I think Burrow and those receivers are really going to be able to feast. Like it could get get ugly for their secondary. Their pass defense is baaaaaaad. Falcons being 6-0 ATS could be good or bad....they may be due. Bengals have covered 4 straight for what it's worth. Something's gotta give

Jets/Broncos is a another ugly one. I think this is an ugly game and I give the home team the edge, especially since Denver is not an easy place to play. I just think Wilson is going to get absolutely roasted by the Broncos defense. I don't have much faith in the Denver offense, but I feel like they can win an ugly game by a field goal at home.......I think

Bucs/Panthers another ugly one. Just think it's a bounce back spot for Tampa and Brady really does own both Atlanta/Carolina in that division. Panthers also a complete trainwreck on offense

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 19-21-1 -2.40
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30


Week 7

Jaguars -3 -105 (2 unit play)

So this will be my second 2-unit play of the season. The first one was Bengals covering against the Jets all the way back in Week 3. I don't play a lot of these, but I think this spot fits the right criteria.

Jacksonville is coming home after a brutal divisional loss in a game that it feels like it should win. Meanwhile, the Giants are going on the road after winning game they probably should have lost. The Giants continue to ride high, and they definitely deserve praise as a 5-1 team. But I think this is challenging spot for them.

I think Jacksonville's defense matches up well with what the Giants want to do offensively. New York is so limited in its pass game, but they've been able to overcome that by having a healthy Saquon Barkley and an excellent run-blocking offensive line. I think the Jags, despite their flaws, match up well with any team that is reliant on a bell cow back because of their stout run defense. Thiey are going to force Daniel Jones to beat them, which is not a good proposition -- he is not good despite the Giants record.

I think the Jags are starting to figure a few things out offensively as well, and I think they will be productive enough to secure a nice victory at home. Gimme the Jags baby


Bengals -7 +110

I originally told myself that I would not be betting this game. Maybe I shouldn't lol but I'm going to anyway. The plus-money is too enticing.

On a more serious note, I like the Bengals to cover primarily because I think they are going to be able to have their way with the Falcons pass defense. This will be by far the toughest test for Atlanta in terms of guarding perimeter weapons. I expect Chase, Higgins, and Boyd all to be able to get some separation. It could be a long day for that secondary.

While Atlanta's rushing attack could pose a problem for the Bengals, who are missing a couple key contributors in their front 7, I think the Bengals unit collectively has been good enough and will do enough to keep the damage minimal. The secondary has also been playing well, and I have faith they can force Mariota into some mistakes.

It's worth noting that there is some reverse line movement here. Good sign for Bengals backers IMO


Titans ML -135

Divisional match-ups are tough, but I'm gonna go ahead and pick the home team to come away with a victory. Tennessee has shown to me that they've figured a few things out since their poor start, and in particular I like the way Tanny and Henry have played. I also think they're doing a good job of figuring out how to utilize the few perimeter weapons that they do have. It's a team going in the right direction.

Indy has played better lately as well, but they're still too a little inconsistent on both sides of the ball. They are also not quite full strength on defense, which I think will be a pretty significant issue in a match-up like this one.

I also love Vrabel off a bye....in the regular season


Broncos PK +100

I can't believe I'm investing money in a Russell-Wilson led team, but here we are. I'll take the Broncos in this spot, even though I hate it in a way.

I just think the Jets are going to fall back to Earth a little bit. I like how their young guys are playing, but I think it's a tall order to stay on the road and go to a place like Mile High. I also do not love Zach Wilson facing this Broncos defense, which is playing pretty well.

This is more about New York falling back then it is about Denver stepping up and being good. If the Broncos can't figure it out against a Jets team with inflated value, then might as well tank for CJ Stroud or something. I dunno. Just win the game dammit


Seahawks/Chargers over 50.5 -110

This total is pretty high already, but I do really like there to be a lot of points in this game. I was really back and forth on the spread, but ultimately decided that the total is where the value is on this one.

I think the Seahawks are going to have some trouble matching up the size of LA's receivers. The defense may be feeling good about itself after a low-scoring win against Arizona, but they are young and still.....pretty bad. I just think the Chargers receivers being bigger and more physical is going to give them problems.

On the end, the health issues for LA combined with Seahawks figuring things out on the ground could lead to the Seahawks finding quite a bit of success when they have the ball. Geno has continued to play well, and I don't see that stopping any time soon against a Chargers defense that has struggled a bit.




I may have more later, but this is the card for now. Good luck

 

[lemartinsports]

i feel weird with all the games this week lol. i'm on the opposite side of you for a good amount too

 

[stormtrooper8]

i'm on the opposite side of you for a good amount too

I'm fucked then

 

[vitterd]

Solid thread. Good work storm!!

 

[stormtrooper8]

Solid thread. Good work storm!!

Thanks bro

Nice win over bowlcut last night

 

[vitterd]

Thanks bro

Nice win over bowlcut last night

Thanks bud! Appreciate it!! Keep up the good work in here!!

 

[lemartinsports]

I'm fucked then

OR I'M fucked

 

[stormtrooper8]

OR I'M fucked

Nah it's my stormy persona picking these games, not Joey Burr.

You're fine

 

[Tanko]

Wow... I think Le and I may have same picks.
I only agree with your Jaguar pick this week ST.

GL