Overall record: 15-14-1 +1.05
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5 plays. Five on the card this week (4 spreads, 1 prop):
Bucs -9 -105 (from earlier)
I'm glad we got this at 9, as it's bound to move higher I think. I think this has all the makings of a blowout.Even in Tampa's loss, they seemed to finally find some continuity on offense -- especially the passing game. That is something that I think will continue to get better over time, especially when you consider that they are getting healthier at their skill positions.
I think the defensive effort was a little bit of an aberration, not to take anything away from the brilliance of the Chiefs offensive game plan. I think this unit is going to be extra pissed off and play more like they looked in the first 3 weeks of the season.
You combine the above with the fact that the Atlanta Falcons truly are a bad 2-2 team that is feeling good about itself, this seems like an opportunity for the Bucs to really put their foot down and give the Falcons a reality check. I love that these two teams are tied at the top of the division as well, as this only creates more incentive for Tampa to bring this division back to reality. Look for Tommy to have a big game as well -- consider taking over props on yards and TD's. I think he hangs a big stat line on this college-level pass defense. The Bucs begin to create separation in the division with a blowout win here.
Patriots -3 -110
I think this line is a little bit closer than it should be based on the Mac Jones injury/the consensus overhype on the Lions. I think Detroit's offense has been pretty solid all year long and Jared Goff is playing very well, but I really love this spot for New England.
I think this is a horrible match-up for the Lions' defense. The Patriots are going to favor the running game (as they should) since it's their natural strength, plus they are going to have a backup quarterback out there. If the Lions load the box though, then this is a really friendly pass defense to try and exploit in light coverage.
I think after two losses and at a point of desperation, New England is going to have a game plan ready to not only exploit the weak defense, but also bottle up Goff and limit the Lions offense as well. Their defense is better than it has played, and I think this is a "get right" spot for them. The Patriots really have been effective moving the ball offensively, but have doomed themselves with turnovers and silly mistakes; I think that is cleaned up in this game, and they cover the number.
49ers -7 +110
I like it better at 6.5, obviously, but there is something enticing about the plus-money value on this one. At first glance, this seems like a trap/let down spot for San Francisco (short week, big win against the defending champs at home, etc.) against a desperate Panthers team that, while they've sucked offensively, has played pretty well on the defensive end and has been in games for the most part. But the more I look at the match-up, the better I feel about laying points with the 49ers.
I had very high expectations for this defense heading into this season, and they honestly have blown those expectations out of the water thus far. Sure they haven't played great offenses, but they are putting up historic numbers in terms of scoring and total defense. The most encouraging thing about what they've done is how improved they are in the secondary, which was by far the shakiest component of their defense in the pass. Even on the rare play when they don't create a natural pass rush from their stout defensive line, they have guys in the defensive backfield that can lock down good receivers and make plays.
Now that defense is going on the road to take on a very anemic offense that is in complete shambles. The offensive line looks bad, the weapons for this team are bad outside of McCaffery, and most importantly, Mayfield has looked discombobulated.
I think there is a chance the 49ers offense isn't that crisp in this one (they haven't been very good this season), but I don't think they have to play well this game to win by double-digits. I would be shocked if Carolina puts up much more than 10 points here. The only real issue that could come up is Panthers winning the turnover battle, but I going to bet on it being a pretty clean game from both sides. And so I think the better team wins and covers.
Rams -5.5 -105
I wish I had locked this one in at 4.5, but probably not a huge difference (lol watch them win by 5). Regardless, I will lay the points with the defending champs here.
I give a lot of credit to Dallas for fighting hard these last few weeks with Dak out. I was a little more bullish on Dallas than most going into the season, as well as after he went out, largely because of the talent in their running game as well as their stout defensive front. In this particular spot though, I think they have a bit of a letdown.
I think the Rams will come out with a healthy sense of urgency after another bad regular season loss to the 49ers. This team has offensive issues, particularly on the line, and I by no means expect them to solve them all (or even that many) in this game. But I do think Stafford will have a bounce back game and be a little bit better distributing the ball around.
More importantly though, I think their defense is going to have a big game. I think their playmakers up front are going to be pissed after a quiet MNF game, and think they are really going to put pressure on Cooper Rush as well as bottle up the run game well. They will make Rush try to win this game with his arm and, despite the fact that he has done a nice job of avoiding big mistakes, I think he finally has a bad game. I'd look for an early Rams lead, forcing the Cowboys to become a little bit more one dimensional -- and I don't like the prospect of this offense playing from behind against this defense. I think the Rams get it done and get back on track.
Ja'Marr Chase over 70.5 receiving yards -115
We went with the over prop on the Thursday night game against the Dolphins in Week 4 and we were lucky to hit it that week. I'm going back to that well with the Sunday night game in Baltimore. Even though Chase went over in that game, I still think he is due for a breakout game where he puts up some ridiculous stat line. This is the type of game that you can find opportunities to make big downfield plays. Baltimore has tried to play a little more conservative in the secondary due to that being an obvious weakness/their pass rush really being awful. But I think they won't be conservative to the point where Chase isn't going to get some golden 1-on-1 opportunities. Baltimore has been notorious -- even when their defense was good -- of letting #1 receivers go off. I think this is the game that Chase finally goes off and sails over 100 yards receiving in (hopefully) a winning effort.
Good luck this week everyone!
