JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays

[chuckythegoat2]

Gummer, I encourage you. Been reading your posts, you're very knowledgeable.

NBA is so much about studying the personnel and forming opinions. I watched Lillard in the opener. I saw a guy who had no shot-discipline. Just letting it fly. I know they view him as option 1A. I'd be very careful with the Bucks late in the year.

Lillard sounded like a great acquisition. He might actually sour the team.

 

[Jrgum3]

Gummer, I encourage you. Been reading your posts, you're very knowledgeable.

NBA is so much about studying the personnel and forming opinions. I watched Lillard in the opener. I saw a guy who had no shot-discipline. Just letting it fly. I know they view him as option 1A. I'd be very careful with the Bucks late in the year.

Lillard sounded like a great acquisition. He might actually sour the team.

Thanks I appreciate it Chucky. I like breaking these games down and for the most part my analysis of the teams is spot on. Hopefully the wins will follow because my reads are right. As for Milwaukee they have problems defensively imo that's the biggest issue for them right now. We'll see if that hurts them in their hunt for a championship.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

I've been trying to analyze these NBA games. Have not yet had ATS success.

One play for FRI = SACRAMENTO Kings +2 (1.95)
...I know Fox is good. Just think they can win tonite without him. The adjusted line looks too generous.

 

[Jrgum3]

11/10/23
Dallas Mavericks ML -113 1.13u to win 1u
Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u

Only two plays for me on tonights 9 game slate. First up I like Dallas to win against the Clippers at home tonight. I think right now it's a good idea to fade the Clippers until they figure everything out. The Mavericks are at home here and I'm taking them to win this game because the Clippers right now are a bet against team for me until they figure out how to play with each other.

I actually went with the Thunder -1.5 against the Kings because they are healthy while the Kings are not. DeAaron Fox being out is huge for the Kings chances. Since he's been out they've fallen off a cliff because he makes life so much easier for everybody else. I think the Thunder are going to come in here and get the win because they're playing great while the Kings are struggling big time without Fox. I know sometimes the injured player theory kicks in for teams but I don't think so here because the Kings are 1-3 without Fox there to facilitate their offense.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

OK, Good Luck, gummer.

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck, JR.

Was it a serious injury for DeAaron Fox? This is the 5th game he's not playing.

 

[Jrgum3]

Good luck, JR.

Was it a serious injury for DeAaron Fox? This is the 5th game he's not playing.

He has a badly sprained ankle so the Kings are playing it safe and holding him out. Unfortunately without him the Kings offensive efficiency takes a major hit which is why I'm playing the Thunder here.

 

[BMR Genie]

He has a badly sprained ankle so the Kings are playing it safe and holding him out. Unfortunately without him the Kings offensive efficiency takes a major hit which is why I'm playing the Thunder here.

Hopefully, he'll come back strong. You will really know how good the player is if in his absence the team is struggling.

 

[Jrgum3]

Hopefully, he'll come back strong. You will really know how good the player is if in his absence the team is struggling.

I mean he is one of the best point guards in the league and you can see why the Kings offense is so much better with him on the floor. He just makes everything easier for the other players on the court and without him they aren't getting as many easy looks.

 

[Jrgum3]

We go 1-1 tonight as Dallas embarrassed the Clippers but the Thunder couldn't rally against the Kings who played great without DeAaron Fox. Hopefully I can find some winners tomorrow and have a winning day. I'll be sure to post my plays as soon as I make them tomorrow.

Thread Record: 22-25 -4.70 Units

 

[BMR Genie]

We go 1-1 tonight as Dallas embarrassed the Clippers but the Thunder couldn't rally against the Kings who played great without DeAaron Fox. Hopefully I can find some winners tomorrow and have a winning day. I'll be sure to post my plays as soon as I make them tomorrow.

Thread Record: 22-25 -4.70 Units

It's a tough loss but credit to OKC for fighting till the end and didn't end a blowout.

Congrats on the Dallas and good luck with your weekend action, JR!

 

[Jrgum3]

11/11/23
Atlanta Hawks -7 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Golden State Warriors 1H -2 -110 1.1u to win 1u

I like Atlanta tonight against a depleted Heat team that is missing its two best players in Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. I think the Hawks will blow out their division rivals here so I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points.

My second play is on the Warriors in the 1H against Cleveland. Cleveland just beat the Warriors last Sunday but the Warriors are at home this time and should be ready to jump on the visiting Cavs. I decided to isolate the Warriors in the 1H even though I lean towards them covering the FG -4 because I think the Warriors might be susceptible to a backdoor cover here due to tired legs at the end of the game.

 

[Jrgum3]

Not a good day as Miami gets a big road win without Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro against the Hawks and the Warriors were down big at the half. Not sure if I'll be back with any plays tomorrow as its a NFL Sunday but its a pretty big slate so I might decide to make a play or two.

Thread record: 22-27 -6.90 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

11/12/23
Houston Rockets +4.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Houston Rockets ML +160 0.5u to win 0.80u

Just focusing on one game today and it's between the defending champs visiting a suddenly hot Houston Rockets team. I think this one will be close which is why the spread is only 4.5. If it's close I think Houston might actually keep their 5 game winning streak going against a Denver team that is missing Jamal Murray so I took a small stab at the +160 ML for half a unit.

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL jr

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Good Luck, gum. Think your Rocket ticket is very live.

 

[Jrgum3]

Nice hit on the Rockets they have a nice young team that seems to have bought into Ime Udoka's system so far. They play great defense and have some veterans on this team to show the young bucks the ropes which is probably why they've won 6 in a row including beating the Lakers and defending champ Nuggets. Another small 4 game slate tomorrow but I'll try to find something I like and post it here.

Thread record: 24-27 -5.10 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

11/13/23
New York Knicks +9 -113 1.13u to win 1u
Kristaps Porzingis o19.5 points -103 1.03u to win 1u
Cleveland Cavaliers ML -113 1.13u to win 1u

My first play tonight I like the Knicks to give Boston a tough game even though this one is in Boston and the Knicks are on a back to back. They typically play Boston tough and I think we see that tonight even if they don't win. Staying in that same game I do like Porzingis to take advantage of a tired Knicks team and go over his points prop for the 6th time in 10 games.

My last play is on the Cavs in what should be a pretty good game. The Kings burned me last time without Fox but I'm going right back to the well right here with the Cavs against a Kings team that will be once again be missing Fox. The Cavs have the size to neutralize Sabonis and I think their defense can contain some of the Kings shooters enough to get the win on the road for this Cavs squad.

 

[Jrgum3]

Now it looks like there is a chance that DeAaron Fox plays tonight but that still doesn't change my mind on this one. I like the Cavs to win this game and this line is basically asking you to pick the winner so I'm taking the team I feel has the better defense here.

 

[Jrgum3]

1-2 night as the Knicks played well for a half but ended up getting blown out by Boston in the second half. At least we won on Porzingis over 19.5 points prop in this one. Unfortunately for me in the nightcap Fox came back and the Kings seemingly couldn't miss. Not sure they would have lost tonight even if Fox didn't play but whatever a loss is a loss and the Kings were the better team tonight. Tomorrow we have another round of group play games in the in season tournament so hopefully I find some winners.

Thread record: 25-29 -6.36 Units