JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays

[BMR Genie]

Nice 2-1 night tonight that very easily could've been 3-0 except Milwaukee missed some free throws late that cost them the cover by the hook. Denver came out and blitzed Dallas who still doesn't appear to be very good defensively so both the 1Q ATS play and the full game over cashed. Nice big card tomorrow so I'll try to come back and have another winning day tomorrow.

Thread record: 15-17 -1.79 Units

Almost 3-0, JR! The Bucks almost got it.

Great job and good luck today.

 

[Jrgum3]

11/4/23
Philadelphia 76ers 1H -3 -113 1.13u to win 1u
Denver Nuggets 1Q -2.5 -115 1.15u to win 1u

Ok so I decided to go with 76ers to cover the 3 points in the 1H against the Suns. The Suns will be without Booker and they're struggling so far this year so I see the 76ers starting strong and taking a comfortable lead into Halftime. I don't like laying 6.5 as much as I would've laying 4 for the full game with Booker playing. I think the 76ers win here but I'm not sure they cover the full game even though they should.

My other play is on the Nuggets in the 1Q ATS again today versus a struggling Bulls team that has to travel to Denver. Denver has been a cash cow in the first quarter so far this year especially at home where teams come in with tired legs and Denver gets off to good starts. I see that happening again here so I laid the 2.5 points with the Nuggets in the 1Q.

 

[Jrgum3]

1-1 today as the Sixers covered the 1H number but the Nuggets didn't cover the 1Q spread as the Bulls made a little run to close out the Quarter. I don't know if I'll have anything tomorrow but if I do I'll be sure to post it here.

Thread Record: 16-18 -1.94 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

11/5/23
Golden State Warriors ML +105 1u to win 1.05u
Kevon Looney o9.5 Rebounds +104 1u to win 1.04u

I attacked the Warriors game from a couple different angles. First I like the Warriors to win the game as short road underdogs vs the Cavs. They have been playing much better on the road to start this season and I think the Cavs haven't been very good to begin the season so the Warriors can take advantage here. Getting the Warriors at plus money on the ML is the way to go here as they are catching 2 points but I think they win this game.

My second play is on Kevon Looney to get o9.5 rebounds. I found this at plus money so I took it because Looney is going to get run here against a Cavs team that has a pretty big frontcourt. The Warriors need him to rebound so I don't think getting 10 or more rebounds is asking too much from him.

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL today jr

 

[Jrgum3]

So I went 1-1 yesterday as Kevon Looney went over his rebound prop but the Warriors couldn't keep it going on the road against the Cavs and ended up losing the game. Still a small profit since both plays were plus money but I would've liked to go 2-0. I will be back later with some plays on today's card after I break it down first than I will post them here.

Thread record: 17-19 -1.90 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

11/6/23
Orlando Magic ML -175 1.75u to win 1u
New York Knicks ML -118 1.18u to win 1u
Indiana/San Antonio o238 -108 1.08u to win 1u

I'm on the Magic ML today against the Mavs. The Mavs have some question marks surrounding the availability of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving today. Also working against them is it is the second night of a back to back for the Mavs who also have to travel to Orlando here. All that makes me want to bet the Magic to take care of business at home here.

The Knicks play the new look Clippers tonight and it's going to be the first game for James Harden with his new team. I think the Clippers will go through some growing pains learning to play together so I took the Knicks to beat them here. I went with the Knicks ML since the spread is essentially meaningless here with it being lined -1 for the Knicks.

My last play is on the Indiana/San Antonio o238. This is a lofty total but both of these teams get up and down the court so I think it goes over this extremely high number.

 

[Jrgum3]

2-1 day today but unfortunately the one loss was in the Magic game. Working against me in that one is Luka and Kyrie both ended up playing so Dallas cruised on the road. The Knicks got it done against the Clippers so that was good and Indiana put up a whopping 152 against the Spurs at home so that easily went over the total of 238. No games tomorrow as the NBA is off for election day but we'll be back Wednesday.

Thread record: 19-20 -1.65 Units

 

[Wagerallsports]

Winning day is always good jr

 

[Jrgum3]

11/8/23
Philadelphia ML +115 1u to win 1.15u
Golden State/Denver o226.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
James Harden o6.5 Assists -143 1.43u to win 1u

First up today I like Philly to beat Boston at home in this huge showdown. I expect a close game but Philly has been playing well and I think they will ride home court advantage to a win tonight against their rivals. The spread is Boston -2 so I just took Philly ML here for a full unit because if they cover this game I think it means they win.

I took the over in the Denver/Golden State game for my second play. I expect a lot of scoring in this one despite Jamal Murray being out due to injury and Golden State finishing up a long road trip. Both of these teams are extremely efficient offensively and I expect this to be a close competitive game that ends up going over this total.

My last play I took James Hardens's assist prop over 6.5. It's heavily juiced but I think he easily clears this number because he is the playmaker in this offense and he'll look to help guys like PG and Kawhi get easy buckets. Also this number won't be this low probably the rest of the season because the Clippers are going to be good offensively and Harden will have the ball in his hands a lot to facilitate the offense. I think he gets 7 or more assists against this short handed Nets team that isn't the greatest defensively.

 

[Wagerallsports]

The Harden prop is interesting

Might tail on that one

 

[BMR Genie]

11/8/23
Philadelphia ML +115 1u to win 1.15u
Golden State/Denver o226.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
James Harden o6.5 Assists -143 1.43u to win 1u

First up today I like Philly to beat Boston at home in this huge showdown. I expect a close game but Philly has been playing well and I think they will ride home court advantage to a win tonight against their rivals. The spread is Boston -2 so I just took Philly ML here for a full unit because if they cover this game I think it means they win.

I took the over in the Denver/Golden State game for my second play. I expect a lot of scoring in this one despite Jamal Murray being out due to injury and Golden State finishing up a long road trip. Both of these teams are extremely efficient offensively and I expect this to be a close competitive game that ends up going over this total.

My last play I took James Hardens's assist prop over 6.5. It's heavily juiced but I think he easily clears this number because he is the playmaker in this offense and he'll look to help guys like PG and Kawhi get easy buckets. Also this number won't be this low probably the rest of the season because the Clippers are going to be good offensively and Harden will have the ball in his hands a lot to facilitate the offense. I think he gets 7 or more assists against this short handed Nets team that isn't the greatest defensively.

Good luck, JR.

 

[Jrgum3]

The Harden prop is interesting

Might tail on that one

I think its a good play I tried to get in on it at -130 but the line changed to -143 when I tried to make my bet. I had to take it at -143 but he had 6 assists in his first game with the team and tonight I think he gets over that number because the Nets aren't as good defensively as the Knicks are. Harden is already playing a normal workload too as he got 31 minutes last game and I think he gets anywhere from 30-35 tonight which should allow him to get those assists.

 

[Jrgum3]

Tough night tonight as I went 1-2. The Sixers got it done at home in a close game throughout against the Celtics but Harden only notched 5 assists despite just needing 2 more heading into the fourth quarter and the Warriors and Nuggets battled in a low scoring game which didn't help my over. Only two games on the slate tomorrow so we'll see if I find anything I like.

Thread Record: 20-22 -3.03 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

11/9/23
Milwaukee Bucks ML -150 1.5u to win 1u
Atlanta Hawks -3.5 -107 1.07u to win 1u
Tyrese Haliburton o21.5 points -122 1.22u to win 1u

Three plays for me today on a light two game card. First up I like the Bucks to find a way to get it done on the second night of a back to back against Indiana. They are starting to find their form after winning last night in a close game against Detroit. I don't see Indiana being able to stop them tonight and if I were looking at Milwaukee props look at Giannis overs because he should be fresh since he got kicked out last night and only played 22 minutes.

I went with Tyrese Haliburton's over 21.5 points prop because simply put Milwaukee struggles defending opposing Point Guards so I expect Haliburton to get his here in a game that should feature a lot of scoring with the total being 242.

Last but not least I took Atlanta -3.5 against Orlando in Mexico City. I've been backing Orlando so far this year because this is an improved basketball team that covers spreads going back to last year. However this game is being played in Mexico City as part of the NBA's global series so I think it's an even playing field and I like Atlanta to cover here because depth will come into play in the altitude of Mexico City and I think Atlanta has the deeper bench so I laid the 3.5 points here.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Gl jr

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Good Luck, gummer. Props for posting.

I've watched some Jokic tape. I'm actually amazed:
*I used to think that young Bill Walton was the best passing center ever.

...I now have to think about Jokic. If basketball is a game of efficiency, Jokic grades out very highly. So often, Denver winds up with a great look. And it doesn't matter if Jokic is the shooter or the creator.

 

[Jrgum3]

Good Luck, gummer. Props for posting.

I've watched some Jokic tape. I'm actually amazed:
*I used to think that young Bill Walton was the best passing center ever.

...I now have to think about Jokic. If basketball is a game of efficiency, Jokic grades out very highly. So often, Denver winds up with a great look. And it doesn't matter if Jokic is the shooter or the creator.

Yeah Jokic is a good one I actually consider him my favorite non Warrior or ex Kentucky player in the NBA right now. He does everything well and is one of the best big men we've seen in a long time.

 

[Jrgum3]

Tough 1-2 night as despite Giannis scoring 54 on the defensively challenged Pacers the Bucks lost the game which is frustrating and the Hawks won a close game but didn't cover against the Magic. At least Haliburton easily cleared his points prop to give me a 1-2 night. Hopefully tomorrow I find some winners on a bigger card.

Thread record: 21-24 -4.60 Units

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Tough 1-2 night as despite Giannis scoring 54 on the defensively challenged Pacers the Bucks lost the game which is frustrating and the Hawks won a close game but didn't cover against the Magic. At least Haliburton easily cleared his points prop to give me a 1-2 night. Hopefully tomorrow I find some winners on a bigger card.

Thread record: 21-24 -4.60 Units

GL, gummer. I don't think these lines are perfect.

So many moving parts. Hard for the oddsmaker to be on top of EVERYTHING.