📣🏈Thursday Ravens @ Bucs/All Sports *CHAT & IN-GAME 🗣️📣

[carolinakid]

it all comes down to what you have work on for yrs and know the numbers imo.

 

[Enikk]

Patty, come on the Podcast in 20 minutes and bury these fvckers that are encouraging our community to lay extra chalk. We want BMR to win. No doubt CK has been in this game a long-time but share you full success with a spreadsheet otherwise it is terrible advice. You know how to pick your spots. The key word was regularly. You know what to look for your play to be a play in your system. But for some regular just betting a game that is terrible fvcking advice to buy points as are my mL parlays. Straight cash form books.

 

[Enikk]

SOD POD in 15. You guys are welcome on to discuss further

 

[stormtrooper8]

People don’t know what “laying juice” or chalk even means

+180 means that you’re getting screwed just as much as -110 does in terms of vig. Just means the true value is +190 and +100 (roughly)

 

[Tanko]

Lay high favorite odds on games that don't land often on the lose by 1 is a losing formula. Look at the data its a sucker bet. Insurance and the illusion of safety.

I can't remember where I learned it but as a general rule I've been taught....
Never take the DOG RL (or puckline). If you like the Dog enough, just go ML.

 

[stormtrooper8]

I can't remember where I learned it but as a general rule I've been taught....
Never take the DOG RL (or puckline). If you like the Dog enough, just go ML.

Over time it nets you the same profit/loss if you do it long term

Just like if you’re looking at the favorite RL/ML

 

[Tanko]

Over time it nets you the same profit/loss if you do it long term

Just like if you’re looking at the favorite RL/ML

I've occassionally done DOG RL's but its rare. I think in general, if you want Dog RL just take the ML. There are no absolute rules in betting.

Wish I had the source that taught me that years ago. I guess we can check via back-testing data to see if the results have changed.

 

[lemartinsports]

I've occassionally done DOG RL's but its rare. I think in general, if you want Dog RL just take the ML. There are no absolute rules in betting.

Wish I had the source that taught me that years ago. I guess we can check via back-testing data to see if the results have changed.

i'm definitely keeping this in mind for next time, just to see whats up. i'm open to advice cause i never bet nhl really

 

[stormtrooper8]

I've occassionally done DOG RL's but its rare. I think in general, if you want Dog RL just take the ML. There are no absolute rules in betting.

Wish I had the source that taught me that years ago. I guess we can check via back-testing data to see if the results have changed.

well the best advice is prolly to just never gamble

But nah over time it’s generating the same expected profit/loss

Some years ML slightly more profitable, other years RL slightly more profitable

But over time it’s basically the same

 

[stormtrooper8]

i'm definitely keeping this in mind for next time, just to see whats up. i'm open to advise cause i never bet nhl really

There’s good intuition behind it. If you like something prolly gonna take the ML

But in terms of expected profit/history , there’s no advantage either way

Weirdly if I ever play dogs in those sport I play BOTH

 

[carolinakid]

when people learn the plus money system your money will grow, i work for over 2 yrs at the rx teaching posters the plus money on home fav

 

[lemartinsports]

well i will say i bet blackhawks +1.5 the other day and they won as underdogs, i was debating the ml but didn't but then was salty i didn't take the ml. SO i think i'm going to keep this in mind for sure...

 

[stormtrooper8]

You win at gambling long term by consistently beating line movement

Getting a ML at +195 before it gets to +175

Getting a +1.5 at -135 before it gets to -145

THAT is how you win. Flat betting one way is just going to get you to the same place over the long haul

Hawks very well could win tonight, but other times they gonna lose by 1. All evens out (basically) in the long term so don't kick yourself if they win

 

[Tanko]

You win at gambling long term by consistently beating line movement

Getting a ML at +195 before it gets to +175

Getting a +1.5 at -135 before it gets to -145

THAT is how you win. Flat betting one way is just going to get you to the same place over the long haul

Hawks very well could win tonight, but other times they gonna lose by 1. All evens out (basically) in the long term.

On this we are in 100% agreement. Beating the closing line is an important measure over time of how you are performing. If you're not beating the closing line (or line movement) you are a losing bettor.

This should be intuitively obvious. If your bets are on the wrong side of the line movements or closing line, you've given up opportunity/value. We all know the public, in general loses, so if you're behind the public, as far as line movement, you're an even bigger loser (so to speak).

 

[stormtrooper8]

On this we are in 100% agreement. Beating the closing line is an important measure over time of how you are performing. If you're not beating the closing line (or line movement) you are a losing bettor.

This should be intuitively obvious. If your bets are on the wrong side of the line movements or closing line, you've given up opportunity/value. We all know the public, in general loses, so if you're behind the public, as far as line movement, you're an even bigger loser (so to speak).

Btw I don’t want my point to be that RL > ML

That’s not what I’m saying

I am saying that over long haul you’re getting about the same level of success if you flat bet either ML or RL

I actually probably take the ML cuz plus money is sexy hehe but objectively there is no edge either way

Markets are a beautiful thing. I’ve worked as a Quant and it’s always fun to see the parallels in sports betting market places with the the shit I have to look at haha

 

[Headsterx]

Jags have screwed a lot of ppl lately

Or have helped some of us out a lot.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Or have helped some of us out a lot.

Haha good point Heads

 

[Wagerallsports]

Good info in here today by everyone!

 

[Wagerallsports]

Wish I would have waited and could have got Baltimore at +9 instead of 8.5

Should still be ok though

 

[samsncharge99]

On tbay tonight