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venditto

venditto

Joined
May 28, 2022
Messages
3,786
Not true, though a little worse historically in NHL than MLB. Not by much though
If you bet on a team +1.5 and it wins outright that's a bad bet long term. If you don't get considerable ammounts of wins when the team loses by 1 you are making a mistake. NHL I won't say for sure but MLB there is not enough underdogs losing by 1 to justify it. If you relied on 1 run losses by underdogs in MLB in 2022 you woulda lost a billy.
 

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
12,845
If you bet on a team +1.5 and it wins outright that's a bad bet long term. If you don't get considerable ammounts of wins when the team loses by 1 you are making a mistake. NHL I won't say for sure but MLB there is not enough underdogs losing by 1 to justify it. If you relied on 1 run losses by underdogs in MLB in 2022 you woulda lost a billy.
Any repeated standard bet is a “bad bet” long term. ML, -1.5, +1.5, etc value is still the same as the price/movement attached to them accounts for that.
 

venditto

venditto

Joined
May 28, 2022
Messages
3,786
Any repeated standard bet is a “bad bet” long term. ML, -1.5, +1.5, etc value is still the same as the price/movement attached to them accounts for that.
You think markets have to be 100% efficient for the sportsbooks to win money?:an_beatupSportbooks could offer +120/+120 on NFL spreads and as long as they could assure people were not arbing they would still beat the players. The idea that lines are sharp is just that an idea and a theory.
 

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
12,845
You think markets have to be 100% efficient for the sportsbooks to win money?:an_beatupSportbooks could offer +120/+120 on NFL spreads and as long as they could assure people were not arbing they would still beat the players. The idea that lines are sharp is just that an idea and a theory.
No they don’t have to be 100% efficient, they obviously aren’t

But the inefficiencies are pretty well spread out.

You can find good value in any type of bet. If there is value in ML, there is also value in +1.5
 
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