Why wouldn’t Texas just lose to A&M?

[stormtrooper8]

Your personal opinion is fine. Everyone has one.
But you have to realize you are kind of biased towards the B10 right?

I mean come on. Everyone sees this.

I’ve spent a lot of time shitting on Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan probably more than any teams

Yeah that makes me a Big Ten homer I guess lol

 

[Tanko]

When did I say it should be on personal opinion of people who watch games?

You argued “it’s not even close” on a rating system that is obviously flawed. It had Ole Miss ahead of Oregon.

W-L/SOS is obviously flawed too

People in that very thread say the Big Ten is better

Some agreed with your opinion that B10> SEC.
Honestly, tell me, how do you compare conferences and remove bias from the mix?

 

[Tanko]

I'll have an argument with you on this but, tell me how you remove people's bias other than using some unbiased ranking systems?

 

[stormtrooper8]

Now your twisting what I said and are upset I provided two different well known ratings systems that shows there is no comparison between the two conferences.

Lol no I criticized that your reasoning is based on metrics that any legitimate statistical/data analyst would say is flawed

Trying to analyze the sport of football, much less college football, is EXTREMELY flawed using rating systems like those

Any true data analyst (like myself) would argue this

Football is as close to pure noise as you can get lol

 

[Tanko]

Lol no I criticized that your reasoning is based on metrics that any legitimate statistical/data analyst would say is flawed

Trying to analyze the sport of football, much less college football, is EXTREMELY flawed using rating systems like those

Any true data analyst (like myself) would argue this

Football is as close to pure noise as you can get lol

Still waiting for an answer on how you resolve the comparison issue and remove personal bias from teh mix.

How do you so it. 100 people will have 100 different personal opinions. How do you resovle it to get a true answer?

 

[Tanko]

When did I say it should be on personal opinion of people who watch games?

How about watching the games and evaluating the teams one by one?

Line the conferences up, I’ll take the Big Ten in more match ups than not

SP+ and FPI aren’t exactly perfect ratings

This is where you made the comment about watching the games.

 

[Tanko]

Listen, everyone has opinions. I disagree with the B10> SEC argument.

Why? I believe in stats. I use multiple types of stats to remove bias from my opinion so I can make a good call on games.

With that said, I also believe the B10 will win the title but I still hold to SEC>B10 overall.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Still waiting for an answer on how you resolve the comparison issue and remove personal bias from teh mix.

How do you so it. 100 people will have 100 different personal opinions. How do you resovle it to get a true answer?

This is where you made the comment about watching the games.

You watch the games and analyze teams individually does not equate to you base a personal opinion based off a TV, like you implied

You do need to actually watch teams to properly analyze them in addition to analyzing them on paper. That’s how you can account for context that those ratings completely omit. Rating says they account for it but they don’t — it’s not possible.

Hence why SP+ is flat out trash. A rating system that says Ole Miss is better than Oregon is hot garbage

That isn’t “unbiased”. It’s improper analysis

 

[stormtrooper8]

Any true statistician knows that those types metrics should not be used to predict football game outcomes

It is the ultimate noisy sport

 

[Tanko]

You watch the games and analyze teams individually does not equate to you base a personal opinion based off a TV, like you implied

You do need to actually watch teams to properly analyze them in addition to analyzing them on paper. That’s how you can account for context that those ratings completely omit. Rating says they account for it but they don’t — it’s not possible.

Hence why SP+ is flat out trash. A rating system that says Ole Miss is better than Oregon is hot garbage

That isn’t “unbiased”. It’s improper analysis

I agree with you that watching the games adds to the knowledge base and helps in the evaluation of the teams but, it is still a biased evaluation by each individual.

You've commented 3X now about SP+, what about FPI ratings? I gave those to you too.
Is there any rating system that you think is "worthy"? If not, then its always a biased opinion until stats show otherwise.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Why would you believe an SP+ rating is valid when it has Ole Miss ahead of Oregon?

It makes the entire rating system laughable

You have to be way more nuanced than that when analyzing college football teams

 

[stormtrooper8]

I agree with you that watching the games adds to the knowledge base and helps in the evaluation of the teams but, it is still a biased evaluation by each individual.

You've commented 3X now about SP+, what about FPI ratings? I gave those to you too.
Is there any rating system that you think is "worthy"? If not, then its always a biased opinion until stats show otherwise.

FPI similarly is flawed

And neither system would be considered unbiased

 

[Tanko]

Any true statistician knows that those types metrics should not be used to predict football game outcomes

It is the ultimate noisy sport

Come on. You're telling me sportsbooks and syndicates don't use stats and metrics to set lines and make plays? You're saying it just a few guys in the back making the call on what to bet based only on the fact they watched the games?

 

[Tanko]

Why would you believe an SP+ rating is valid when it has Ole Miss ahead of Oregon?

It makes the entire rating system laughable

You have to be way more nuanced than that when analyzing college football teams

I agree there can be flaws and its not one rating system.

The difference measured between the conferences by these rating system showed more than just a little difference. I was a fairly decent difference. Almost double.

So if they have some error, then OK. But they don't have enough error to to say they are completely wrong.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Come on. You're telling me sportsbooks and syndicates don't use stats and metrics to set lines and make plays? You're saying it just a few guys in the back making the call on what to bet based only on the fact they watched the games?

When did I say that? Of course stats are used

I literally am a statistician

But these rating systems are inherently biased

 

[Tanko]

It was great arguing with you but, I doubt we'll see eye-to-eye on this.

Got to go. Neighbor has the smoker going and we're watching SNF over there. GL

 

[stormtrooper8]

Any all-encompassing rating system is going to be biased

That is a statistical fact

 

[stormtrooper8]

There’s nothing to argue about. Small sample bias factually exists

People who rely only on stats in football think the Bills are better than the Chiefs every year in the NFL

Stats are a tool but not intended to be all-encompassing in football

 

[JDS]

That was a good debate thank you gentlemen solid reading material.

 

[stormtrooper8]

That was a good debate thank you gentlemen solid reading material.

Statistics miss a lot of the nuance in a game like football.

Even if you somehow created a model that accurately represented the results from a sample size, it's literally impossible to gauge motivation level, unique situation, etc. How do you capture the motivation level of every team in every game? You have to literally assume every team is playing 100% all of the time

You think the Bills and Chiefs approached that Week 11 game with the same level of urgency, motivation, etc? You really gonna trust DVOA ratings if the Chiefs and Bills play in the playoffs?

You can't make concrete conclusions off of statistical analysis. That is Statistics 101