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Tanko - CBB Plays 2024-2025

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,951
1/19/25

Illinois @ Michigan St.

Illinois +3-105 Bovada

This should be a fun game today. I like Illinois because they bounced back from the loss to USC at home with a massacre of Indiana on the road (won by 25). I think they got the loss out of their system and realized the B10 isn't a cake-walk. Michigan St. (#14 KenPom) although they have an impressive record and quite a few good wins in the B10, they haven't beaten a top 30 team all year. The closest was a win over UNC (#32) in OT. They also do not shoot well from 3-pt land and Illinois 2-pt defense if #9 in the country. Finally, the 3 games Mich St has had againts high tempo teams like Illinois indicates they don't perform as well against those teams as slower paced teams.
vs Penn St. - Only won by 5 (spread -11.5)
vs Memphis - Lost by 9 after being favored (spread was -2.5)
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,951
1/19/25

Illinois @ Michigan St.

Illinois +3-105 Bovada

This should be a fun game today. I like Illinois because they bounced back from the loss to USC at home with a massacre of Indiana on the road (won by 25). I think they got the loss out of their system and realized the B10 isn't a cake-walk. Michigan St. (#14 KenPom) although they have an impressive record and quite a few good wins in the B10, they haven't beaten a top 30 team all year. The closest was a win over UNC (#32) in OT. They also do not shoot well from 3-pt land and Illinois 2-pt defense if #9 in the country. Finally, the 3 games Mich St has had againts high tempo teams like Illinois indicates they don't perform as well against those teams as slower paced teams.
vs Penn St. - Only won by 5 (spread -11.5)
vs Memphis - Lost by 9 after being favored (spread was -2.5)
Winner.....
  • 5+ money days in a row
  • 7 winners in a row.
  • Best week of the season so far.
I better retire so I finish on a high note. :ROFLMAO:

But, as those of you who follow my thread know, Mondays are exceptionally bad for me so don't expect much manana.

W-L-P%$ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):10-4-071.4%+$563ROI 37.2%
Season Total:82-83-249.7%-$-580ROI -3.3%
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
56,931
Winner.....
  • 5+ money days in a row
  • 7 winners in a row.
  • Best week of the season so far.
I better retire so I finish on a high note. :ROFLMAO:

But, as those of you who follow my thread know, Mondays are exceptionally bad for me so don't expect much manana.

W-L-P%$ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):10-4-071.4%+$563ROI 37.2%
Season Total:82-83-249.7%-$-580ROI -3.3%
Excellent 👍🏼
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,951
1/20/25
Trying to be selective today since I usually start off the week in the hole.

SE Louisiana @ E. Texas A&M

SE Louisiana -5 -105

This game will probably very low on your card. Not a lot of great basketball to see here but, I like the edge with the Lions. IMO this line is off. I have it at -9 SE Louisiana. SELO is playing up to expectations, winning games vs higher ranked teams and losing vs lower ranked teams (in the last 11 games, they've lost 1 game to a team ranked higher). E. Texas A&M is horrible, having won only 2 games this season.
  • SE Louis is 6-2 ATS in last 8
  • E. Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in last 10. They are 2-6 ATS when a dog by 8 pts or less, the last 3 of which were at home and all losses ATS.
 

Franz555

Franz555

Joined
Apr 10, 2018
Messages
6,641
1/20/25
Trying to be selective today since I usually start off the week in the hole.

SE Louisiana @ E. Texas A&M

SE Louisiana -5 -105

This game will probably very low on your card. Not a lot of great basketball to see here but, I like the edge with the Lions. IMO this line is off. I have it at -9 SE Louisiana. SELO is playing up to expectations, winning games vs higher ranked teams and losing vs lower ranked teams (in the last 11 games, they've lost 1 game to a team ranked higher). E. Texas A&M is horrible, having won only 2 games this season.
  • SE Louis is 6-2 ATS in last 8
  • E. Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in last 10. They are 2-6 ATS when a dog by 8 pts or less, the last 3 of which were at home and all losses ATS.
" Selective "

I like that. Its synonymous with Patience. I always admired JD and yourself for being able to apply it for periods of time. You look to be back in your old groove again. Keep it rolling

BOL
 

Franz555

Franz555

Joined
Apr 10, 2018
Messages
6,641
1/20/25
Trying to be selective today since I usually start off the week in the hole.

SE Louisiana @ E. Texas A&M

SE Louisiana -5 -105

This game will probably very low on your card. Not a lot of great basketball to see here but, I like the edge with the Lions. IMO this line is off. I have it at -9 SE Louisiana. SELO is playing up to expectations, winning games vs higher ranked teams and losing vs lower ranked teams (in the last 11 games, they've lost 1 game to a team ranked higher). E. Texas A&M is horrible, having won only 2 games this season.
  • SE Louis is 6-2 ATS in last 8
  • E. Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in last 10. They are 2-6 ATS when a dog by 8 pts or less, the last 3 of which were at home and all losses ATS.
WINNER

Thank you sir
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,486
It was ugly. Like two high school teams playing.
SE Louis finally pulled ahead in last 5 minutes. Amen.

I was almost on East Texas A&M Lions +7.

And as I had it up, I seriously asked myself, "are the East Texas A&M Lions even in Texas"

So I passed.

That line dropped, I thought I missed a good margin, and I saw you went the other way when it got to 5.

Next thing you know it's back to 6/6.5.

They lost by 8.

I dodged a bullet, good hit Tanko.

cheers-dwight-the-general-manfredi.gif
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,951
1/21/25
Wisconsin @ UCLA

Wisconsin +4-108 Heritage

This is about the Wisc offense (#11 Off-Eff) vs UCLA defense (#12 Def-Eff). I like Wisc since UCLA's defense has dropped off a little in the last 4 games with opponents scoring over 70 in each game. UCLA was on a 4 game skid until they beat Iowa at home on Friday but that win didn't suprise me. I don't think Iowa is that good. Wisconsin has won 7 in a row and are 8-2 ATS over the last 10. UCLA is 5-5 ATS.

Finally, I think this will be a tight game. The line seems to indicate that and in tight games, FT shooting is king. Wisconsin is #1 at the line 86%.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,951
Saint Josephs vs Davidson

Davidson ML +106

IMO the wrong team is favored tonight. Davidson lost its last two games which were on the road but don't let that trick you. They lost by 2 and 3 points respectively vs teams of similar caliber to Saint Josephs. At home Davidson is solid. They've covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. The lone outlier was only winning by 13 vs Bethune-Cookman with a spread of 14. The Wildcats win at home.

Saint Joseph meanwhile is on a 1-3 run and haven't beaten anyone as good as Davidson since Mid-November going 7-5 over that period losing to every team that has similar performance to Davidson. They are 1-2 on the road with the only win vs lowly Penn in November.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,951
Adding a couple Franz pointed out.

Miami OH -9.5 -108
They are covering consistently. 7 in a row and playing against a team that is in the bottom 30% in BOTH offense and defensive efficiency. Add to it that Miami OH is at home and the 9.5 looks low.

Texas Tech -1.5 -108
Texas Tech is #9 in off-eff, #27 in def-eff while Cincy is #133 in off-eff and #7 in def-eff.
Texas can shutdown Cincy's offense but can the opposite happen? Can Cincy shutdown the potent offense of the Red Raiders? I don't think they can. When Tech played two great defensive teams (Iowa State and Arizone in the last game) they still scored 70+ points in regulation. Cincy hasn't scored more than 68 points in the last 6 games. This game could be a 72-68 Texas Tech winner or higher.

I say potentially higher due to Tech FT shooting. Tech shooting 78% from the FT line (#22 in country). Cincy is shooting 65% (#345 in the country). Close games come down to the FT line and Texas Tech has a huge edge there.
 
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