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Tanko - CBB Plays 2024-2025

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Tanko

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Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,978
1/19/25

Illinois @ Michigan St.

Illinois +3-105 Bovada

This should be a fun game today. I like Illinois because they bounced back from the loss to USC at home with a massacre of Indiana on the road (won by 25). I think they got the loss out of their system and realized the B10 isn't a cake-walk. Michigan St. (#14 KenPom) although they have an impressive record and quite a few good wins in the B10, they haven't beaten a top 30 team all year. The closest was a win over UNC (#32) in OT. They also do not shoot well from 3-pt land and Illinois 2-pt defense if #9 in the country. Finally, the 3 games Mich St has had againts high tempo teams like Illinois indicates they don't perform as well against those teams as slower paced teams.
vs Penn St. - Only won by 5 (spread -11.5)
vs Memphis - Lost by 9 after being favored (spread was -2.5)
 

Tanko

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Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,978
1/19/25

Illinois @ Michigan St.

Illinois +3-105 Bovada

This should be a fun game today. I like Illinois because they bounced back from the loss to USC at home with a massacre of Indiana on the road (won by 25). I think they got the loss out of their system and realized the B10 isn't a cake-walk. Michigan St. (#14 KenPom) although they have an impressive record and quite a few good wins in the B10, they haven't beaten a top 30 team all year. The closest was a win over UNC (#32) in OT. They also do not shoot well from 3-pt land and Illinois 2-pt defense if #9 in the country. Finally, the 3 games Mich St has had againts high tempo teams like Illinois indicates they don't perform as well against those teams as slower paced teams.
vs Penn St. - Only won by 5 (spread -11.5)
vs Memphis - Lost by 9 after being favored (spread was -2.5)
Winner.....
  • 5+ money days in a row
  • 7 winners in a row.
  • Best week of the season so far.
I better retire so I finish on a high note. :ROFLMAO:

But, as those of you who follow my thread know, Mondays are exceptionally bad for me so don't expect much manana.

W-L-P%$ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):10-4-071.4%+$563ROI 37.2%
Season Total:82-83-249.7%-$-580ROI -3.3%
 

Wagerallsports

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Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
59,557
Winner.....
  • 5+ money days in a row
  • 7 winners in a row.
  • Best week of the season so far.
I better retire so I finish on a high note. :ROFLMAO:

But, as those of you who follow my thread know, Mondays are exceptionally bad for me so don't expect much manana.

W-L-P%$ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):10-4-071.4%+$563ROI 37.2%
Season Total:82-83-249.7%-$-580ROI -3.3%
Excellent 👍🏼
 

Tanko

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Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,978
1/20/25
Trying to be selective today since I usually start off the week in the hole.

SE Louisiana @ E. Texas A&M

SE Louisiana -5 -105

This game will probably very low on your card. Not a lot of great basketball to see here but, I like the edge with the Lions. IMO this line is off. I have it at -9 SE Louisiana. SELO is playing up to expectations, winning games vs higher ranked teams and losing vs lower ranked teams (in the last 11 games, they've lost 1 game to a team ranked higher). E. Texas A&M is horrible, having won only 2 games this season.
  • SE Louis is 6-2 ATS in last 8
  • E. Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in last 10. They are 2-6 ATS when a dog by 8 pts or less, the last 3 of which were at home and all losses ATS.
 

Franz555

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Franz555

Joined
Apr 10, 2018
Messages
7,024
1/20/25
Trying to be selective today since I usually start off the week in the hole.

SE Louisiana @ E. Texas A&M

SE Louisiana -5 -105

This game will probably very low on your card. Not a lot of great basketball to see here but, I like the edge with the Lions. IMO this line is off. I have it at -9 SE Louisiana. SELO is playing up to expectations, winning games vs higher ranked teams and losing vs lower ranked teams (in the last 11 games, they've lost 1 game to a team ranked higher). E. Texas A&M is horrible, having won only 2 games this season.
  • SE Louis is 6-2 ATS in last 8
  • E. Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in last 10. They are 2-6 ATS when a dog by 8 pts or less, the last 3 of which were at home and all losses ATS.
" Selective "

I like that. Its synonymous with Patience. I always admired JD and yourself for being able to apply it for periods of time. You look to be back in your old groove again. Keep it rolling

BOL
 

Franz555

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Franz555

Joined
Apr 10, 2018
Messages
7,024
1/20/25
Trying to be selective today since I usually start off the week in the hole.

SE Louisiana @ E. Texas A&M

SE Louisiana -5 -105

This game will probably very low on your card. Not a lot of great basketball to see here but, I like the edge with the Lions. IMO this line is off. I have it at -9 SE Louisiana. SELO is playing up to expectations, winning games vs higher ranked teams and losing vs lower ranked teams (in the last 11 games, they've lost 1 game to a team ranked higher). E. Texas A&M is horrible, having won only 2 games this season.
  • SE Louis is 6-2 ATS in last 8
  • E. Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in last 10. They are 2-6 ATS when a dog by 8 pts or less, the last 3 of which were at home and all losses ATS.
WINNER

Thank you sir
 

KVB

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KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,427
It was ugly. Like two high school teams playing.
SE Louis finally pulled ahead in last 5 minutes. Amen.

I was almost on East Texas A&M Lions +7.

And as I had it up, I seriously asked myself, "are the East Texas A&M Lions even in Texas"

So I passed.

That line dropped, I thought I missed a good margin, and I saw you went the other way when it got to 5.

Next thing you know it's back to 6/6.5.

They lost by 8.

I dodged a bullet, good hit Tanko.

cheers-dwight-the-general-manfredi.gif
 

Tanko

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Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,978
1/21/25
Wisconsin @ UCLA

Wisconsin +4-108 Heritage

This is about the Wisc offense (#11 Off-Eff) vs UCLA defense (#12 Def-Eff). I like Wisc since UCLA's defense has dropped off a little in the last 4 games with opponents scoring over 70 in each game. UCLA was on a 4 game skid until they beat Iowa at home on Friday but that win didn't suprise me. I don't think Iowa is that good. Wisconsin has won 7 in a row and are 8-2 ATS over the last 10. UCLA is 5-5 ATS.

Finally, I think this will be a tight game. The line seems to indicate that and in tight games, FT shooting is king. Wisconsin is #1 at the line 86%.
 

Tanko

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Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,978
Saint Josephs vs Davidson

Davidson ML +106

IMO the wrong team is favored tonight. Davidson lost its last two games which were on the road but don't let that trick you. They lost by 2 and 3 points respectively vs teams of similar caliber to Saint Josephs. At home Davidson is solid. They've covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. The lone outlier was only winning by 13 vs Bethune-Cookman with a spread of 14. The Wildcats win at home.

Saint Joseph meanwhile is on a 1-3 run and haven't beaten anyone as good as Davidson since Mid-November going 7-5 over that period losing to every team that has similar performance to Davidson. They are 1-2 on the road with the only win vs lowly Penn in November.
 

Tanko

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Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,978
Adding a couple Franz pointed out.

Miami OH -9.5 -108
They are covering consistently. 7 in a row and playing against a team that is in the bottom 30% in BOTH offense and defensive efficiency. Add to it that Miami OH is at home and the 9.5 looks low.

Texas Tech -1.5 -108
Texas Tech is #9 in off-eff, #27 in def-eff while Cincy is #133 in off-eff and #7 in def-eff.
Texas can shutdown Cincy's offense but can the opposite happen? Can Cincy shutdown the potent offense of the Red Raiders? I don't think they can. When Tech played two great defensive teams (Iowa State and Arizone in the last game) they still scored 70+ points in regulation. Cincy hasn't scored more than 68 points in the last 6 games. This game could be a 72-68 Texas Tech winner or higher.

I say potentially higher due to Tech FT shooting. Tech shooting 78% from the FT line (#22 in country). Cincy is shooting 65% (#345 in the country). Close games come down to the FT line and Texas Tech has a huge edge there.
 
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