Stooges of Degeneracy, Ep. 11 NSFW

[venditto]

bmr won't let me book your ideas or i'd make a milly off your ass STINKS

 

[Enikk]

Like with the puck line stuff

Buying points gonna pay out the same in the long run . More risk for higher rate of success, appropriately price given everything is juiced

It’s about finding value and beating movement

Your not betting every game like that though so you can't use the percentage equals out the same in the end

 

[Enikk]

You catch Hawks/Oilers breh?

Chi couldn't quite pull off the upset but at least they covered

So you got you butt cheeks clenched the last 3 minutes a team pulls their goalie hoping you don't shit your pants. Not only did you shit your pants but paid more juice as well when that empty netter goes in

 

[stormtrooper8]

bmr won't let me book your ideas or i'd make a milly off your ass STINKS

You talk like you listen to a lot of Drake or other soft shit lmao

Your not betting every game like that though so you can't use the percentage equals out the same in the end

If you bought a point 1,000 times and sold a point 1,000 times chances are you get same result

It's all just math breh. Doesnt feel that way in the moment but it is.

 

[venditto]

You talk like you listen to a lot of Drake or other soft shit lmao

If you bought a point 1,000 times and sold a point 1,000 times chances are you get same result

It's all just math breh. Doesnt feel that way in the moment but it is.

I talk like a guy who bets and wins more than you

 

[venditto]

You talk like you listen to a lot of Drake or other soft shit lmao

If you bought a point 1,000 times and sold a point 1,000 times chances are you get same result

It's all just math breh. Doesnt feel that way in the moment but it is.

Yeah if you really believe that you're braindead

 

[Enikk]

If you bought a point 1,000 times and sold a point 1,000 times chances are you get same result

It's all just math breh. Doesnt feel that way in the moment but it is.

But your model is for those consistently betting the same way with the same risk amount. Doesn't work that way for forumville posters. Most average Joe's are doing exactly what Venditto is warning posters not to do. They are buying "insurance" and it is a terrible idea eating up their bankroll. Venditto is giving a great public service announcement having posters backs.

With CK it is different. He has a system that works for him but others see him buying points and don't know his system or rational and think well he is rich and a professional doing this for a living that must be the right way to do it. It is fvcking not. It is a horrible decision for most

 

[stormtrooper8]

So you got you butt cheeks clenched the last 3 minutes a team pulls their goalie hoping you don't shit your pants. Not only did you shit your pants but paid more juice as well when that empty netter goes in

Yeah the empty net scenario is never fun

But you’re paying juice if you play Hawks ML as well

-130 +1.5 or +170 ML is same amount of juice for the books

 

[venditto]

Anyone who wants to bet +1.5s with me please do i'll drool and cum while you lose effortlessly

 

[stormtrooper8]

But your model is for those consistently betting the same way with the same risk amount. Doesn't work that way for forumville posters. Most average Joe's are doing exactly what Venditto is warning posters not to do. They are buying "insurance" and it is a terrible idea eating up their bankroll. Venditto is giving a great public service announcement having posters backs.

With CK it is different. He has a system that works for him but others see him buying points and don't know his system or rational and think well he is rich and a professional doing this for a living that must be the right way to do it. It is fvcking not. It is a horrible decision for most

That’s not how that works tho. It’s not insurance

It’s increasing your success rate and risk proportionally.

An underdog losing a game by a single goal is the single most common outcome in hockey. That is a fact. Acting like it’s rare is very misleading and irresponsible.

What happened with Hawks tonight isn’t rare in the slightest. Great winner for Queen Le

 

[venditto]

Enikk I gotta tell you im a big fan i'll join you fuks on the podcast eventually i'll make sure to f*** bobby up for you

 

[venditto]

That’s not how that works tho. It’s not insurance

It’s increasing your success rate and risk proportionally.

An underdog losing a game by a single goal is the single most common outcome in hockey. That is a fact. Acting like it’s rare is very misleading and irresponsible.

What happened with Hawks tonight isn’t rare in the slightest. Great winner for Queen Le

You're clinically retarded nothing can save you just lose your money and play for el rancho

 

[stormtrooper8]

But your model is for those consistently betting the same way with the same risk amount.

It’s an illustration of how each strategy has the same expected profit over the long haul.

AKA there’s no mathematical advantage to betting one way over the order in this case.

 

[stormtrooper8]

But your model is for those consistently betting the same way with the same risk amount. Doesn't work that way for forumville posters. Most average Joe's are doing exactly what Venditto is warning posters not to do. They are buying "insurance" and it is a terrible idea eating up their bankroll. Venditto is giving a great public service announcement having posters backs.

With CK it is different. He has a system that works for him but others see him buying points and don't know his system or rational and think well he is rich and a professional doing this for a living that must be the right way to do it. It is fvcking not. It is a horrible decision for most

it’s not insurance though. The amount of juice you pay doesn’t change if you are debating between ML and spread at the same time

+170 has the same amount of juice as -110. It just looks friendlier because of the plus value.

You’re always paying extra unless you’re consistently beating line movement and getting in at a price that pays out better than the true probability of the event happening

 

[venditto]

it’s not insurance though. The amount of juice you pay doesn’t change if you are debating between ML and spread at the same time

+170 has the same amount of juice as -110. It just looks friendlier because of the plus value.

You’re always paying extra unless you’re consistently beating line movement and getting in at a price that pays out better than the true probability of the event happening

The more you try the more you fail keep going

 

[stormtrooper8]

It’s also not my model. It’s probability, and It’s how markets work

If there is an inefficiency in a market, it gets identified and exploited by market activity, which corrects the inefficiency. The people who exploit it are the winners

Sports betting markets are efficient as hell

 

[stormtrooper8]

Yeah if you really believe that you're braindead

It’s a statistical fact . There’s nothing to believe or not believe

 

[venditto]

It’s a statistical fact . There’s nothing to believe or not believe

Show a sportsbook balance of over 5,000 and i'll be shocked

 

[Enikk]

If any of Bmr has free time as a hobby or wants to make coin than bet NBA quarters. These fvckers are so lazy. Set up a spreadsheet for each team and keep track of how much they score each quarter for every game. I haven't bothered doing it for years and was going to get back into but than Covid hit and fvcked up normal daily line-ups. You will find teams trends and hit a good percentage with quarter sides/totals.

If you want to win than quit betting pre-game full game shit and bet where you have an edge and take the rigg out of it. Books have the full game spread/total and is usually split in 4 with the 1st q having a little higher number on the fav. Certain teams kick ass certain Qs and play a slower game others. Follow the trends and gain the edge where you can. Biggest problem you will find is having a book offer all 4 qs and total for each Q. Over the years some dropped it to just 1st q. Limits are lower too.

Like I been saying. Think outside of the box. This isn't pre-2000s anymore where you called up your man and got a number. There is no reason to bet like that anymore.

 

[venditto]

I'll even bait you come kill me