Stooges of Degeneracy, Ep. 11 NSFW

[venditto]

Shutout to my man enikk for speaking wisdom at the end he has gotten fucked 900 times buying points he knows the deal we all have gone through it to figure it out

 

[stormtrooper8]

Your football threads are impressive & you pick a shit ton of games. I’m more from the old school & spot bet my best bets per week. This method has always worked better for me & it allows me to bet a higher % of my bankroll.

Takes a lot of discipline to keep it short

I don't do this for a living. I love sports, numbers, and playing the game. So this is a nice hobby for me.

I will admit my strategy as far my threads go isn't optimizing profit, but I do enjoy the challenge of trying to pick the right side of a line, total, etc. and throwing some cash you're willing to lose behind it. It's just fun man

Love dicking around on places like this too with all these interesting characters

 

[JDS]

Takes a lot of discipline to keep it short

I don't do this for a living. I love sports, numbers, and playing the game. So this is a nice hobby for me.

I will admit my strategy as far my threads go isn't optimizing profit, but I do enjoy the challenge of trying to pick the right side of a line, total, etc. and throwing some cash you're willing to lose behind it. It's just fun man

Love dicking around on places like this too with all these interesting characters

Yeah shooting the shit, that’s what it’s all about on these boards. Your sports betting knowledge doesn’t go unnoticed & most posters appreciate what you bring to the forumville table.

 

[teacher10]

Well done!!

 

[vitterd]

Shutout to my man enikk for speaking wisdom at the end he has gotten fucked 900 times buying points he knows the deal we all have gone through it to figure it out

I can tell you what I’ve done in the past. If I pick out 3 teams on a football Saturday. I will play a dime parlay and if line is +2.5 I will buy to 3.5 or 6.5 to 7.5. Im talking in big parlays only. Straight bets is a no buy. And I’m not buying for a push. I can’t figure why people buy from 2.5 to 3. Might as well buy for the win.

 

[venditto]

Buying points is for suckers

I can tell you what I’ve done in the past. If I pick out 3 teams on a football Saturday. I will play a dime parlay and if line is +2.5 I will buy to 3.5 or 6.5 to 7.5. Im talking in big parlays only. Straight bets is a no buy. And I’m not buying for a push. I can’t figure why people buy from 2.5 to 3. Might as well buy for the win.

 

[vitterd]

Buying points is for suckers

I would agree on straight bets you are laying out way too much juice…..for parlays….you just get paid less. Parlays are difficult and sucker bets as well though. But if you’re doing parlays and you can manipulate key numbers for a smaller payback, I don’t see the harm. It’s not something to be done consistently

 

[JDS]

Buying points is for suckers

I’ll sell a half point back to the bookmaker always before buying one.

 

[venditto]

Selling points always makes more sense than buying them

 

[stormtrooper8]

I would agree on straight bets you are laying out way too much juice…..for parlays….you just get paid less. Parlays are difficult and sucker bets as well though. But if you’re doing parlays and you can manipulate key numbers for a smaller payback, I don’t see the harm. It’s not something to be done consistently

Like with the puck line stuff

Buying points gonna pay out the same in the long run . More risk for higher rate of success, appropriately price given everything is juiced

It’s about finding value and beating movement

 

[venditto]

Like with the puck line stuff

Buying points gonna pay out the same in the long run . More risk for higher rate of success, appropriately price given everything is juiced

It’s about finding value and beating movement

Don't need to beat line moves to win this is a fallacy

 

[stormtrooper8]

Don't need to beat line moves to win this is a fallacy

 

[venditto]

Live in fantasy land with your $70 bets I don't care

 

[stormtrooper8]

Live in fantasy land with your $70 bets I don't care

You catch Hawks/Oilers breh?

Chi couldn't quite pull off the upset but at least they covered

 

[venditto]

You catch Hawks/Oilers breh?

Chi couldn't quite pull off the upset but at least they covered

Bet on +1.5s consistently i'll see you at the bread line and be drunk as fuk and giggling sucker born every minute its not your fault its your parents fault

 

[Enikk]

I assume you mean football

In case of hockey, most frequent outcome is the favorite beating the underdog by exactly 1 goal. Obviously there are a very wide range of outcomes, but that is the #1 most frequent outcome.

An event with a 38% chance of happening is gonna hit about 38% of the time, just like an event with a 70% chance of happening is going to hit about 70% of the time over the long haul. The question is if you can consistently get a price that pays out better than the true probability of something happening.

Like if an event's price is +190, but the true price is more like +175 based on the actual probability of the event, that's when you're in business . Obviously identifying those opportunities is the hard part

People are gonna play a +170 ML over a -130 +1.5 because hitting the former is more fun, pays out bigger, but reality is if you flat bet each of those 1000 times you're coming away with about the same result in terms of profitability

Lot of nuances in sports

I always like hearing people's thoughts on this stuff

I come from a quant/stats/data heavy background so I naturally like looking at things from that angle. When it comes to probability, I will argue to the death.

Yet I got better at this when I allowed sports knowledge, intuition, etc to become a bigger factor in picking games.

It take a good combo IMO

Lets also be honest here as well. None of this shit really matters as not only do we have to pick winners (to me that is the easy part. Anyone can win games) but the most important factor is money management and will power. Well over 95% of us in forumville don't have that and that is why the book will always come out ahead. Greed is a bitch and our fvcking refusal to accept losing is always our downfall. These books aren't giving out 100% bonuses for a whole month for nothing.

I have said it before. If we were to load our account, get that 100% bonus and have no access to it instead having a friend/spouse put in our plays. Almost all of us would do a hell of a lot better and actually come out ahead. Come January, I will start a forum group book account with 5-7 cappers invest what you want. 1 play a day. It is a winner every time I have run it during NCAA hoops season once conference play kicks in.

 

[venditto]

You catch Hawks/Oilers breh?

Chi couldn't quite pull off the upset but at least they covered

sucker born every minute homie smarten up

 

[stormtrooper8]

Bet on +1.5s consistently i'll see you at the bread line and be drunk as fuk and giggling sucker born every minute its not your fault its your parents fault

 

[Enikk]

I can tell you what I’ve done in the past. If I pick out 3 teams on a football Saturday. I will play a dime parlay and if line is +2.5 I will buy to 3.5 or 6.5 to 7.5. Im talking in big parlays only. Straight bets is a no buy. And I’m not buying for a push. I can’t figure why people buy from 2.5 to 3. Might as well buy for the win.

If it is a FP or an all in Parlay. Whatever you have to do to stay in the game brother

 

[stormtrooper8]

Come January, I will start a forum group book account with 5-7 cappers invest what you want. 1 play a day. It is a winner every time I have run it during NCAA hoops season once conference play kicks in.

That's awesome