Stock Market Discussion..........

[homie1975]

Josher I always love to read your thoughts even though I challenge them from time to time.

I believe the downward selling will continue a bit due to tech behemoths like AAPL and MSFT in the S&P who got way ahead of themselves while the S&P "laggards" did not.

SPX still only down 3.67% the past month.

I am foreseeing at least a few more weeks of selling before we get into dreaded Sept and Oct though I believe this Sept could be the trend reversal and there will be more green days than red ones..

 

[guitarjosh]

Josher I always love to read your thoughts even though I challenge them from time to time.

I believe the downward selling will continue a bit due to tech behemoths like AAPL and MSFT in the S&P who got way ahead of themselves while the S&P "laggards" did not.

SPX still only down 3.67% the past month.

I am foreseeing at least a few more weeks of selling before we get into dreaded Sept and Oct though I believe this Sept could be the trend reversal and there will be more green days than red ones..

You could be right, the thing is that in terms of price momentum, less than 10% of the Nasdaq 100 signals are on buy signals. 10% precisely of the stocks in the S&P are on buy signals. 10% & under usually signals a washout.

 

[KVB]

If I recall, the 1 and 30 were inverted 12 months ago.

If we get a rise, we might on the first half of a head shoulders for something like the S&P. I know that's really thinking ahead, but I would imagine there needs to be some sideways at the very least for a while.

 

[guitarjosh]

If I recall, the 1 and 30 were inverted 12 months ago.

If we get a rise, we might on the first half of a head shoulders for something like the S&P. I know that's really thinking ahead, but I would imagine there needs to be some sideways at the very least for a while.

Yeah roughly a year ago. The 10/2 inverted July 5, 10/1 inverted July 12, 3mo/10 year inverged October 25. It takes about 16 months average from a consistent inversion of the 1-2/10 years to the onset of a recession, and about 13 months average from 3mo/10 year to a recession. If we're average, a recession would start in November. Obviously, we can go on longer than average.

 

[Leisure]

Nvidia just hit the ball out of the park !!!

 

[Tanko]

Nvidia just hit the ball out of the park !!!

They are all over AI chip manufacturing. Top of the line from what I heard and no one even close.
They will rule the world soon (maybe they already do).

 

[Leisure]

They are all over AI chip manufacturing. Top of the line from what I heard and no one even close.
They will rule the world soon (maybe they already do).

2nd quarter earnings were fukin great !

 

[JDS]

They are all over AI chip manufacturing. Top of the line from what I heard and no one even close.
They will rule the world soon (maybe they already do).

One day, Amazon will buy them.

 

[homie1975]

holy reversal !!!

 

[homie1975]

to quote the former poster who hopefully returns to SBR or starts posting here (RoyBacon):

"if you backtest it, when we hit new highs we tend to make newer highs".

lots and lots of people have FOMO right now.

the retail investors (30% of the market) and BEARS have joined in the euphoria.

that is driving us up up up

 

[homie1975]

to quote the former poster who hopefully returns to SBR or starts posting here (RoyBacon):

"if you backtest it, when we hit new highs we tend to make newer highs".

lots and lots of people have FOMO right now.

the retail investors (30% of the market) and BEARS have joined in the euphoria.

that is driving us up up up

go go go go !!!

 

[jjgold]

long term nobody loses its why real winners are in stock market
Its where so much wealth created
Short term EVERYONE LOSES

 

[KVB]

to quote the former poster who hopefully returns to SBR or starts posting here (RoyBacon):

"if you backtest it, when we hit new highs we tend to make newer highs".

Stocks that hit new highs go on to make newer highs.

That's not a Roy Bacon thing, lol, it's common knowledge that you can't credit to anyone.

lmao

 

[homie1975]

Stocks that hit new highs go on to make newer highs.

That's not a Roy Bacon thing, lol, it's common knowledge that you can't credit to anyone.

lmao

i know KVer

there are a lot of people worried when the market gets very frothy, and i used to be one of them.

what goes up must come down, right?

right, eventually, but betting against on a session by session basis is a fool's errand.

always love shooting the shit with you, KVer !!!

Good health to you and yours in 2024 !!!

 

[homie1975]

long term nobody loses its why real winners are in stock market
Its where so much wealth created
Short term EVERYONE LOSES

short term especially options players and daytraders, about 80% lose, 20% win.

long term, depending on how long (several years at least) it is difficult Not to win the stock market, especially when averaging down on cost basis.

 

[jjgold]

Homie maybe 10%........many studies on this

Best of luck and great work at BMR

 

[KVB]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633536085308366866

 

[homie1975]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633536085308366866

KVer, 4 samples in 150 years is actually notable. 4 for 4 = 100% which is a toughie to go against.

To the contrary, ~80% of the time the S&P 500 gains over 20% in one year, it stays in the positive the following year.

Also, let's not forget that inflation is coming down from 40 year historical highs and we are in an Election Year. My point is, there are macro and micro items which offset the sample size of 4 in the last 150 years.

 

[KVB]

KVer, 4 samples in 150 years is actually notable. 4 for 4 = 100% which is a toughie to go against.

To the contrary, ~80% of the time the S&P 500 gains over 20% in one year, it stays in the positive the following year.

Also, let's not forget that inflation is coming down from 40 year historical highs and we are in an Election Year. My point is, there are macro and micro items which offset the sample size of 4 in the last 150 years.

Nobody's making a prediction and don't get distracted by things like sample size.

M2 money supply contracted that is not just one "indicator" there are broad implications to that.

Or it's just the new volatile world we are in, which could also be bad.

When it comes to unemployment, AI could contribute to that in the near term.

 

[homie1975]

Nobody's making a prediction and don't get distracted by things like sample size.

M2 money supply contracted that is not just one "indicator" there are broad implications to that.

Or it's just the new volatile world we are in, which could also be bad.

When it comes to unemployment, AI could contribute to that in the near term.

i'm watching like a hawk, Brother. need to preserve as much capital as possible if we have a downturn..