Monday June 10-Monday June 17 MLB

[piratealew]

***6th Umpire Over is Brewers/Angels Over 8.5-125 With Jordan Baker who rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.27 slightly above Fairchild from earlier. He is 7-5 to the over this year in his games, on 9.8 runs and just over 63% called strikes with a below 3 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last seasons or 102 games, his games are 56% going over, on 9.4 runs, and a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio on 63% called strikes. Angels pitching has been atrocious esp lately, I expect the brewerrs will put up some runs, as last night they pushed the total at 8 and I expect this game should see a few more than the total tonight. The over has hit in 6 of the last 8 angels game and given the matchup and umpire this should be attainable.

 

[piratealew]

***6th Umpire Over is Brewers/Angels Over 8.5-125 With Jordan Baker who rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.27 slightly above Fairchild from earlier. He is 7-5 to the over this year in his games, on 9.8 runs and just over 63% called strikes with a below 3 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last seasons or 102 games, his games are 56% going over, on 9.4 runs, and a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio on 63% called strikes. Angels pitching has been atrocious esp lately, I expect the brewerrs will put up some runs, as last night they pushed the total at 8 and I expect this game should see a few more than the total tonight. The over has hit in 6 of the last 8 angels game and given the matchup and umpire this should be attainable.

 

[piratealew]

forgot my cubs bet earlier put a little more on them live tied 2-2

Cubs-118 (Live 6th inning) tied 2-2

 

[piratealew]

A good tuesday thanks to Phils and Brewers top 2 cashing. Will have Wed games up a bit later working on the rest now.

Had a good soccer day yesterday and a few wanted to know my picks today so If anyone is curious, For today's Euro I am on these so far:

Croatia-1+100, Croatia/Albania Over 2.5 goals
Germany-1-120, Germany/Hungary Over 3 goals,
Croatia+Germany ML Parlay
Switzerland ML-105, Swiss/Serbs Over 2.5 goals+105, BTTS+110

 

[piratealew]

also Croatia BTTS above:

For College World Series (2nd game rained out):
Kentucky-135

MLB overnights (will post rest in a bit with full order)
⭐️Phillies-150
⭐️Cards-1-135
Arizona-148

 

[piratealew]

840-731 YTD/ (435-366 Top plays) Umpire Overs=60-37 Umpire Under=1-1

College World Series=2-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yanks-1-110
⭐️Braves-120
⭐️Phils-150
⭐️Cardinals-1-130
⭐️Angels/Brewers Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️NY Mutts+102
⭐️Dodgers-1.5-120
⭐️Royals-1-130 (Full game)
⭐️Red Sox+118
⭐️SF Gigantes+110
⭐️Angels+0.5+105 (F5-First 5 innings)
Twins-1+100
Seattle+130
Arizona-148
Royals-0.5-115 (F5-first 5 innings)
Angels+150 (Full game)
Stl/Miami Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
Mutts/Rangers Over 8-130
Pittsburgh/Cincy Over 7.5-125
Boston/Toronto Over 7.5-120
Royals/A's Over 7-120
Atlanta/Detroit UNDER 7.5-120 (Umpire Under-see writeup)

***First Umpire Over--Angels/Brewers Over 8 with Mark Carlson, who is rated in the extremely friendly hitter category at 4.29 just below Todd Tichenor and Alfonso Marquez who are the more hitter friendly umps. Carlson's games he is 8-4-1 to the over in 2024, on 10 runs avg per game, 2.29 SO/BB Ratio, and just over 63% called strikes. His last 5 seasons or 139 games he is over 54% to the over on 9.5 runs and just over 63% called strikes. With gas can Peralta going, I expect the angels to be able to score more than the 3 last night they got late, and brewers should be able to hit later in the game on LAA's pen as they are ranked 30th in ERA this season. Anderson may go 6-7 innings tops, so I do expect more runs late. Carlson being behind the plate gives me a lot more confidence.

***2nd Umpire Over is STL/Miami Over 8- with CB Bucknor who is 7-6 to the over on 9.2 runs and 64% strikes on a 2.75 SO/BB Ratio. He's been rated a hitter friendly ump every year as he consistently is calling strikes at a low 63-64%, and a sub 3 SO/BB ratio. While it can be argued both offenses arent the best, esp the marlins, they did put up 9 last night and 6 the night before. these 2 teams have combined for 30 runs in 2 games. Miami home games have been high scoring this year and with the pitching going today and CB behind the dish I expect similar results.


*1st Umpire Under is ATL/DET Under 7.5 with Jeremy Riggs---he's a newer ump who hasn't worked many games this year so we have to look more at the past as in 5 games this year he's just over 9 runs per game on almost 65% called strikes but last 2 years tell the story of his favoritism towards pitchers and lower scoring games as last year his games were 9-15 to the over (15 unders), on under 8 runs a game and just over 63% strikes while 2022 his games averaged even less at 7.9, and his games were 11-17 to the over under (17 unders/11 overs). His SO/BB ratio usually is around 3 or above as in 2022 it was 3.3 and his total runs responsible for which most umps avg about 1 per game or a bit less, he is constantly below 1 and often less than .5 runs responsible for. The pitching matchup today needs little writeup as to why most expect a pitcher dual. Skubal against Lopez, 2 of the better pitchers in MLB going. and both teams have been struggling to score in this series as both games finished 2-1 and that was with pitching matchups not quite as strong as today. With Jeremy behind the dish I feel more confident he squeezes the hitters and runs will be more at a premium.

 

[piratealew]

for next 2 euro games, i also just did a German ML 1st half parlay with Over 0.5 goals 1st half Switzerland game. Hit on croatia over and btts, game drew on a 95th min goal so we lose the ML.

 

[piratealew]

adding:
Cubs/Giants Over 10.5-125

CWS Later game:
Tennessee-1.5-130

Kentucky must have forgot their 10 am game today, TN won't come in unfocused and their pitching is much better than the cats.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Rockies/Doyers Over 10-120 with Lance Barksdale. This over has many things in it's favor with the obvious being in mile high Denver where the ball flies. These 2 teams combined for 34 runs the past 2 games, and tonights pitching matchup gets progressively worse, as feltner just gave up 4 runs in 6 to Pitt and 8 to Cincy in a start prior while Miller was recently touched up for 5 in 1 IP to the cubs. Now with Lance Barksdale who consistently rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.28 just below the extreme category, his games this year are 8-7 to the over on 8.6 runs per game and a very low 2.05 SO/BB ratio and insanely low 61.8% strikes. If Lance keeps up his normal strike call % with the elevated walks. this game may hit 20 runs like last night. This one is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is⭐️Boston/Toronto Over 7.5 with Alfonso Marquez, who consistently rates as the most hitter friendly umpire in MLB even above Drekman, Moscoso and others, at 4.37 the top rating. This year he's had some odd games but over the over last 5 years he's about 55% to the over on 62.8% strikes, and a very low 2.21 SO/BB, resulting in a very high 9.7 runs per game in the last 151. Over his last 2 seasons or 73 games he's 54% over andd 9.2 runs per game due to his issuing more walks than avg, and less Strikeouts. With a hitter friendly ump and 2 pitchers struggling mightily I feel more confident in the over so it's now a top play. Gausman should be called gasman for how bad he can be at times, he's 3-2 with a 4.32 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP his last 7 games or 41IP, meanwhile Bello is 3-3 with a 6.44 ERA, 1.65 Whip in 36 innings. Boston has shelled Gasman in the past, last year in a start against the red sux he gave up a whopping 8 runs in 3 innings, his last start against BOS he gave up 2 in 5 IP. I think runs will be plenty tonight and with a umpire like Marquez we may get this early.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Arizona/Washington Over 9-125

 

[piratealew]

Later CWS Game:

Texas A&M-125

 

[piratealew]

Looks like I missed my astros bet earlier so hopping in Live

Astros-135 (Live, 34rrd inning 0-0)

 

[piratealew]

A great day Tuesday, followed by a bad night yesterday, 10-16 it looks like where nothing made sense, lot of late collapses, and lost every game that went to extra's. Some days it cuts the other way.

If anyone is playing Euro, here's who I have today/This morning

Serbia ML-125/ Serbia BTTS
England ML-135/ England Over 4.5 Corners
Spain ML/ Spain BTTS

Combo: Serbia/Slovenia Over 0.5 1st half goals+Spain/italy Over 0.5 1st half=100 nets about 210 at most books

Working on the MLB card for today.

 

[piratealew]

I like today's card more than yesterday for some reason. Hopefully today makes more sense with the results than Wednesday

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Twinks-122
⭐️Yankees-135 (Full game)
⭐️Cardinals-114
⭐️Royals-145
⭐️Brewers-108
⭐️Twins/Tampa Over 7.5-125 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5-First 5 innings)
⭐️Asstros-1-140
⭐️Cleveland+102
Diamondbacks+129
Astros-0.5-110 (F5-First 5 innings)
Yankees-0.5-115 (F5-First 5 Innings)
Dbacks/Nats Over 8.5-120
Cards/Gigantes Over 8.5-115 (Playing in Rickwood park, dimensions are small)
Dodgers/Rocks Over 11.5-115
Brewers/Chaplains Over 8-120
Cleveland/Mariners Over 7.5-120
Royals/A's Over 7.5-115

Umpire Overs=62-39 (2-2 Wed)

***First umpire Over Twins/Mariners Over 7.5---With Adam Hamari who is 8-6 to the over, on 9.7 runs per game, and just over 64% strikes, 2.64 SO/BB ratio and a high 4.8 ERA for his games. Adam is known for squeezing pitchers, esp road dog teams as he appears to be an ump who is more lenient on hitters but more particularly home hitters, at home teams are 10-5 (home faves are 9-4) under his watch this year, so I like the twins a lot as well and due to the matchup with the over.Minn should be able to touch up Littell who has struggled over the 3 starts in june hitting a 7.71 ERA, in his last 14 IP, and he has to try to slow down a twinks offense that is ranked 1st in OPS (.883) and BA (.31) in the last 2 weeks. Richardson is also hittable lately, giving up 1 earned run in his last 4 starts, logging a 4.58 ERA in his last 19 innings. Runs should be scored in this game and Adam should help by walking more hitters and calling less strikes. It is a top play along with Twinks ML

 

[piratealew]

^writeup should say Twins/Devil Rays OVER

 

[piratealew]

For Copa:

Argentina ML 1st half-130 and 1-115 (full game)

and argentina in ML parlay with Yankees, and one with Dodgers.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Arizona/Washington Over 8.5 with Paul Clemons who is 8-7 to the over on nearly 10 runs per game, and a 64% called strike. His games are avg nearly 3 homers per game, well above league avg. He's a more recent ump with spotty games in previous years but he finished 2020-2022 seasons above 10 runs per game each year, with 2 being over 11 runs and is always + on the Over/under like last year at 6-3. The pitching and hitting is also more favorable to the over as Gore as been wild this year and batters are hitting well against him while Dbacks Pitcher is seeing hitters hit .300+ when he pitches on the raod. Arizona does have one of the top offenses in the NL and is hitting more home runs, and with a home run friendly ump in hot and very humid DC, along with the Nats who hit better during the daytime, we should hopefully get to this number before the later innings.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is Cards/Gigantes Over 8.5-115 with Alan Porter who has been rated as a hitter friendly ump at 4.28, just below the extreme hitter friendly category. He is almost 58% to the over last 3 years or 103 games, on 9.5 runs per game, 63.8% strikes, and a low 2.57 SO/BB Ratio. This game is also being played at Rickwood park in AL, a small baseball field with easy home run dimensions as LF is only 321 while RF is 332. It wont take a lot to get them out in the heat and humidity and with the pitching matchup tonight. Giants Keaton winn has been awful this year with over a 6 ERA, While palente is slightly better with just under 5. There should be plenty of run scoring opps aided with a hitter friendly Porter behind the dish.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is Brewers/Padres Over 8 with Andy Fletcher, who is 11-2-1 to the over with a very high 12.4 runs per game. He has cashed many over tickets for me this year. His strke calls are an insanely low 61.6% (lowest in MLB this many gameS), and a 1.81 SO/BB Ratio. His last 4 games? 13, 10, 10, 14. And with 2 pitchers on the mound who have been touched up this year I feel more confident in this over now, and added confidence, Andy will be helping us here.