Monday June 10-Monday June 17 MLB

[piratealew]

Hope everyone has a great Father's Day and gets to spend time with the family. My 3 older kids are a state away, while my daughter and 3 step kids are here at least.

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Nationals-112
⭐️Yankees-132
⭐️Cleveland+118
⭐️Orioles-125
⭐️Brewers-127
⭐️Angels/Giants Over 8-110 (Umpire Over-Mark Ripperger-See writeup)
⭐️Pirates-135
⭐️Padres-118
⭐️Royals+1.5+110 (sprinkle on +220 ML)
⭐️Texas/Seattle Over 7-120
⭐️Twins-1-115 (GAME 1)
Seattle-130
Giants-1-115
Twins-0.5-115 (F5) Game 1
Arizona-1-115
Twins-0.5-120 (F5) Game 2
Yanks/Boston Over 8.5-125 (Umpire Over--Dan Bellino-See writeup)
Philly/Baltimore Over 7-115
Reds/Brewers Over 9-120
Twins/A;s Over 8-130 (Game 1)
Twins/A's Over 8-125 (Game 2)
Marlin/Nats Over 7.5-120

Umpire Overs=54-31 Umpire Under=1-1

***First Umpire Over-Angels/Giants Over 8 with Mark Ripperger-Game 2 on sat just missed the total by a .5 with many chances. Today we have another very favorable ump towards hitter. While Mark is 8-5 to the over, his games avg 9.5 runs on 2.24 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 5 years, he's 74-63 to the over for 54% on a very high 9.7 runs per game, with a 2.61 SO/BB Ratio on 64% strikes. Aiding the over is that giants are in the top half of the league in hits, runs, RBI, K's, Walks, batting average, OBP, and OPS. With the angels mostly having a bullpen game today I think the giants will be able to score plenty themselves while the angels can hit harrison who has been inconsistent all year, as last start he was solid, previous 2 were not good. In a ballpark that can sometimes block the wind, today's wind angle looks more conducive to homers over left field. Hopefully all things together will help this game breeze past the 8.

***2nd Umpire Over-Yanks/Red Sux Over 8.5 with Dan Bellino who consistently ranks as a very hitter friendly umpire and while he is 7-6 to the over due to circumstance, his games are averaging 10.4 runs per game, on just over 63% called strikes and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. Only 5 of his games have gone under tonight's total going 6, 19, 4, 13, 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. His last 2 years further illuminate his love of runs as he is 61.3% over, in 79 games, and averages 9.9 runs per game, over his last 160 games or 5 years it's still at 9.4 runs per game. The yanks have the most potent and hottest offense in MLB right now and is the best road team in MLB, NYY is also 3rd in MLB in higtting with RISP with a .862, while boston is middle of the pack at 16th with a .734 OPS. These 2 combined for 12 last night and 9 in game 1. I see this game as another big yankee win with the scoring from last night flipped or reversed possibly.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Cards+116

 

[piratealew]

Tampa+117

 

[piratealew]

Astros-135

 

[piratealew]

Pirates changed pitchers. No longer Skenes. Removed them as a top play, put more on Astros for a top play.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over Sea/Tex Over 7--With Brian Walsh who is a new ump, just started in 2023, but is seeing games over 9 runs throughout his 2 years; this year he's avg 9.14 and is 8-5 to the over on a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. In 2023 for 15 games, it was 9.07 Runs and was 8-5 to the over. Both starting pitchers are giving up runs as Gibert is 0-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 42 innings while Dunning is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 31 innings. Both teams can hit for power and are good at hitting homers as Mariners are 8th in MLB with 78 while Rangers are 19th with 68 homers. Last night these 2 hit 12 runs and with Walsh, and it being a day game when the ball flies a bit better, I see this going over the total with greater ease.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Chicago/Arizona Over 8-130

 

[piratealew]

Monster afternoon of baseball.
Even the late games were great! 15-5
8-4 top plays today. Now yankees will make it even sweeter.

 

[piratealew]

17-6 Sun/8-5 Top plays/2-1 Umpire Overs
818-716 YTD/ (425-358 Top plays) Umpire Overs=56-33 Umpire Under=1-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-121
⭐️Philly-1-115
⭐️Giants+105
⭐️Cardinals-142
⭐️Braves-0.5-125 (F5)
⭐️Angels/Brewers Over 8-128
⭐️Red Sox+118
Angels+102
Pirates-1-128
Braves-1-145 (Full game)
Rockies+2-120
Red Sux/Blow Jays Over 7.5-115
Cards/Marlins Over 7-130

No Umpire Data as of yet. But as some fun plays if anyone is interested in Euro's and CWS (yes i "punt" or gamble on Soccer almost daily but not as serious as other sports as it's the toughest of all even for the best), here's how I played them this afternoon:

Belgium to win first half+110, Belgium-1 regular time, Belgium over 1.5 goals, Belgium BTTS, France ML, France First half goals over 0.5, and a parlay with both games over 0.5 goals 1st half with Florida Gators in the college world series. Also played Florda ML straight Over the NC Sux Wolfpeckers.

I know the NCSU program well growing up in Chapel Thrill, and being a rival against them at ECU, I've met their coach Avent a few times in Raleigh when I lived in Cary, and my neighbor here in VA is a former NCSU Pitching standout from Miami (Felix Roque). Chatted with him this morning on our walk and he confirmed my thinking, ncscu doesnt have the experience florida does and the depth esp in the lineup. He is on FLA to win this one as well. Felix also said something interesting, his high school AAU travel team in Miami was better than his NCSU team then and today. He played with Nick Castellanos, Kyle Tucker, Nasty Nestor Cortez to name a few. He called out that UF has 3x more Pro pospects on their roster.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is SD/Philly Over 9-115 with Bruce Dreckman who is the most hitter friendly of umps esp this year. He is 11-2 to the ovfer with an asrtonomical 12.4 runs per game with a 2.5 SO/BB ration and 64% called strikes. Only 2 of his 13 games have gone under tonight's total going 10, 6, 20, 9, 14, 11, 18, 6, 13,13, 12, 13, 16. Aiding the total is the matchup with Sanchez who was not sharp at all last start, so he easily might give up 3-4 himself going against a Padres pitcher who has been a gas can this year posting a near 5 ERA, 1.51. WHIP. The phillies are top 5 in OPS and avg 5 runs per game so I have this game pushing 10 runs and with Dreckman's help we might see it sooner than late innings.

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Mets/Rangers Over 7.5-130 with Andy Fletcher who is tied for most hitter friendly ump in MLB this year behind our other ump tonight (Dreckman). Andy is 11-2 to the over as well. His games also average 12.4 runs per game but on a measly 1.81 SO/BB Ratio, and a very low 61.6% strikes. Every one of his games this year have gone over the total tonight with the lowest being 8 and highest 26. Rangers hit their best at home this season and the mets offense has been hot this week, as Mets have improved their BA well above their season benchmarks. Peterson has struggled getting outs for the Mets this year. I had this game at 9 runs, and with Andy helping this may breeze past the total. This total is a top play

Also Added a play I forgot Angels-105 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

Update on Mets over-They changed Umpires. Now Jansen Visconti. He's a slightly hitter friendly ump but not near Andy Fletcher. Most years he's averaging right at 9 runs or just over and typically 63% called strikes w/ a mid 2.4 SO/BB ratio most years.Last year he was 15-12 to the over. While he wont be as generous as Fletch, he will offer some chances with a more hitter friendly lenient K zone.

 

[piratealew]

Good early win On Florida and France and 2 parlays, after Belgium had 2 goals taken away in the 12pm game.

I'm on Texas A&M for tonight's CWS

 

[piratealew]

Frustrating another pitcher change-this time to Plesac for Angels, virtually not much change in prices. Staying on Angels full game and the over.

Angels+115 (Full game)--Pitcher change
Angels+105 (F5)
Angels/Brewers Over 8

 

[piratealew]

angels over still a top play

 

[piratealew]

Fantastic day! Angels couldn't push 1 more over the total so pushed the last one....

Ended up 11-3 MLB Monday/5-2 top plays/2-0 Umpire overs and 2-0 College WS, and 3-1 NBA for 16-4 all sports on Monday and a great day. Be back later for Tuesday's Mlb and NHL.



Here's who I played for CWS and Euro if anyone is curious. Working on MLB so will have that later.

College world Series=2-0
Yes, I am somewhat a UNC homer growing up in Chapel hill, close to the UNC program, and attended briefly before transfer to ECU. Dad's neighbor is current UNC coach back in CH, and former UNC coach Mike Roberts was an instructor years ago--his son Brian Roberts was the longtime Oriole IF and a good friend and teammate through High school. For this game I was looking at FSU and normally might pick them if the situation wasn't different. This game looks to be decided by the bullpens and the wind is blowing in again about 25-30 mph. this favors UNC as they have the pitching and defense advantage while FSU is a power team and relies on the long ball. UNC's offense has been anemic recently but if they can play small ball and put up a few runs, they should win this in the late inning as Pence who is one of UNC's stud relievers should easily pitch more than his normal 1.5 innings today and hold FSU at bay.

UNC-105

For EURO today I played a parlay (won both yesterday) of Over 1st half goals of both games (Portugal and Turkey games). Turkey/Ga over 0.5+Portugal/Czech Over 0.5 both first half. This hit yesterday and in fact, EVERY game and every day. Parlays of these have cashed every day!
Also played Portugal ML (1st half) +110, Over 2.5 goals-120, BTTS (both teams to score)-110, along with Turkey ML-130 and BTTS +100, then a 2 teamer of Portugal ML and Turkey ML.

 

[piratealew]

Let's see how Tuesday works out. Hope the gambling gods are with us to continue this nice run last few days.

829-719 YTD/ (430-360 Top plays)
All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-138
⭐️Brewers-129
⭐️Nats-108
⭐️Royals-128
⭐️Cards-139
⭐️NY Mutts+100
⭐️Cincy Red Legs-118
⭐️Red Sox-104
⭐️Murdermore Orioles (Baltimore)+0.5-105 (F5-First 5 innings)
⭐️Tiger Kittens/Braves Over 8-130 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Twins-1-103
Cleveland-113
Braves-1-110
Dodgers-1.5-115
Houston Asstros-0.5-135 (F5-First 5 innings)
Baltimore+138 (Full game ML)
Nats/Dbacks Over 8.5-120
Red Sux/Blow Jays Over 7.5-112
Twins/Rays Over 8-115
Cards/Marlins Over 7.5-125
Mets/Rangers Over 8-120


As many know by now, I am a lifelong yankee fan but I dont let that skew my betting. Tonight you'll notice I played the orioles--great value on the dog with the better pitching matchup and O's best SP right now. Cortez has been shaky this year and has had rough outings against Baltimore. I like them F5 more as they tend to be aggressive early and try to get early leads on the road. They should hit Cortez and knock him out early.

2-0 Umpire Overs Mon/ Umpire Overs=58-33

***First Umpire Over Tigers/Braves Over 8 with Tony Randazzo who is 8-5-1 to the over this yr on 9.9 runs with a 63% called strike ratio and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. He's had 7 games out of his 14 go into the double digits with 2 reaching 14, and 1 getting to 17 runs. In a lot of his high scoring games he is only calling 60% strikes. Both pitchers in this game have been strugglign of late, while the lineup for ATL has been very hot lately. Tigers games are 40-28 to the over, best in the majors while ATL is 27-39, But with Mize going, and then determined in the bullpens, I expect the braves offense to light up the board tonight. In their last 5 games they are avg 10 runs per game, while Tigers 9.6. ATL also is heating up weather wise, with high humidity, this causes the ball to travel further and ATL is often called Coors Field South. With Tony helping in this game giving hitters a lenient strike zone and averaging 4.6 Pitcher ERA in his games, I expect runs to be plenty.

***2nd Umpire over is Mets/Rangers Over 8 with Mike Muchlinski who is 5-7 to the over but his games avg 10.5 runs per game, due to his lenient K zone,w ith 64% called strikes and a 2.8 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 103 games or 3 seasons, he is 53.6% to the over, and his games see an avg of 9.6 runs per game, well above league average. NY's offense has been red hot ranking 3rd in both OPS .850) and batting avg (.292) over the last 15 days. In their last 6 game winning streak they are scoring 7.5 runs per game meanwhile they have a bottom tier Bullpen ranking 26th in ERA (4.67) and 24th in Whip 1.35. Obviously the mets could get this total themselves as we saw last night but I have this game at close to 10 runs and with Mike's help this may cash earlier than usual.

 

[piratealew]

Later CWS GAME:

Kentucky Wildkittens-125

FLA's cinderella run ends tonight. Niman is a better and experienced pitcher gong against Coppola, who in 7 starts hold a 9.16 ERA. While Niman was hit hard by UF in May, I expect a different game plan, and the bullpen should be more than fresh with their closer O'Brien who only threw 28 pitches yesterday. Florida has the SEC's worst ERA at 6.16 as a staff and walks per game at 4.47. Edge to UK for pitching, defense and intagibles here.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over Phillies/Chaplains Over 8.5-115 with Edwin Moscoso, who enters tonight as one of the more hitter friendly umps of the last few years. He is 9-4 to the over this year on 9.64 Runs on a measly 62.8% called strikes, and a low 2.3 SO/BB Ratio, last year his games avg over 10 runs per game and 24-10 to the over, and the years prior are all similar. Last night the total hit 11 with another pitcher friendly ump. Phils have one of the better offenses in the game so they could easily get this tonight with the SD pitching of late. 7 of the last 7 games between SD/Philly in Philly have all gone over the total. Tonight with a little help from the ump we should see 8 and the 10-15 mph wind out to LF should help.

 

[piratealew]

apparently missed my write up here on #4.
***4th Umpire Over is Nats/Dabacks Over 8.5 with Chad Fairchild who has long been rated a hitter friendly ump at a 4.26 rating, just below Scott Barry and above the famous Angel Hernandez, as taken together, most of his years he finished with double digit run average or close. Hes consistently calling a low 62-63% strikes each year and also with a low 2.4 SO/BB ratio, resulting in more run scoring opportunities. His highest scoring year a few yrs ago ended with an 8-3 over and nearly 12 runs per game. He's avg just over 8 this year but it could be by happen-stance as his metrics continue to grade him a hitter friendly ump with a bigger strike zone.With the Dbacks on the road their scoring has gone down with more games going under, but I think the nats ability to score and help from fairchild in a somewhat hitter friendly park with an 11 mph wind out to left center, we should see this total cash.

***5th Umpire Over Asstros/White Sux Over 8.5-120 with Derek Thomas who is one my favorite young over umps having only umpired last 2 seasons. His games this year are 7-3 to the over on 10.3 runs, and a very low 61.9% called strike and an insanely low 1.96 SO/BB. In 20 games last season he had his games at 9.5 runs on a 63% ccalled strike %. Obviously his strike zone is a bit larger this year. I had this total at close to 9 but with Thomas as Ump I like it a bit more.

 

[piratealew]

astros over is a top play