Monday June 10-Monday June 17 MLB

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over--Cards/Pitts Over 7.5---with Dan Bellino a notorious hitter friendly umpire, while he's 7-5 to the over in 2024, the ERA for his games is 4.4 but averaging a whopping 10.8 runs, on a 2.34 SO/BB Ratio on 63% called strikes. His last game netted 19 runs in Kansas city. Over 78 of his last games, just last 2 years, he's 46-28 to the over, for 62.2% (very high), and 9.9 runs scored per game in that span also with a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. Working in our favor with Bellino to the over is the pitching today with Falter for Pitt who has been very hittable late, and a Pitt team scoring more runs of late. Both teams have better BA and scoring #'s at night. I am on the over thanks to the matchup and added confidence bellino helps us get over the hump. I had this game pegged just over 8 runs and with some help we might see this cash early.

***2nd Umpire Over is Yanks/Twinks Over 10---Carlos Torres is the ump today who's numbers this year may look skeweed as he's 5-7-1 to the over and 8,.7 runs per game but calls a very low 63.2% strikes. Torres has been rated consistently as the 7th most hitter friendly ump in the "extreme category" above Mark Carlson, and Adrian Johnson, at 4.31 out of 4.37. His last 148 games or 5 years tell the full story why, he's 82-63 to the over or 57%, and averaging a whopping 9.8 runs per game, on 2.4 SO/BB ratio and a low 63% strikes. The yanks cashed the over themselves yesterday and with the higher number, Torres should help in combi with the fact the yanks are now 7th in runs per game at 4.93 but even more during road games at 5.06, while royals are tied for 4th in runs per game at 4.94 in night games while it goes up to 5.56 in hme games. Royals going with a rookie then Lynch in Bulk for a bullpen day, I see no reason why the yanks cant put up tons of runs again, and with some umpire help we may get this total earlier.

Should be Yanks/Royals Over. Stupid phone and auto correct.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over-Seattle/Chicago over 7 (above)-With Ryan Additon. If you looked at his O/U # this year alone you might wonder why, however he is noted by many independent sources as a hitter friendly ump albeit at the bottom end but 1 above Angel Hernandez at 4.26 out of 4.37. Over his last 2 years or 70 games, his games are seeing an avg of 9.3 runs, with a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio on 63.8% strikes. His strike call metrics are mostly unchanged year to year, with some slight fluctation in the numbers. Aiding the scoring from Ryan should help in what appears to be a higher scoring affair since White sox are throwing Cannon who only has made 3 starts, and is 0-1, 7.24 ERA. Miller has struggled since end of May going 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA, and .225 BAA in 11 innings and 2 starts this month. Both bullpens are below avg as well as M's are 15th with a 3.75, while White sox are 29th with a 4.89. These 2 have already shown they can score with better pitchers, so i expect more runs tonight.

 

[piratealew]

Tigers/Nats Over 7.5-115

 

[piratealew]

**2nd Umpire Over--Angels/Dbacks Over 8-with Edwin Moscoso as the ump behind home plate, who has a 8-4 Over record this year on 9.46 runs, with a measly 62.9% called strikes. He's continuing his trend as last year he was 23-10 to the over on 10.12 runs per game. His games this year have gone 11, 13, 11, 12, 5, 9, 9, 5, 5, 9, 7, 17. These teams combined for 13 runs last night with evem with a shutdown ace like Gray on the mound. I have this game at 9 runs and with some help from Ed we might see the same like last night. He's rated the 2nd most hitter friendly ump in the MLB with a score of 4.34. Aiding the ability to score runs today are 2 teams that have been scoring more lately withe AZ scoring 5.2 runs in their last 5 games and angels near 4 runs in their past 4 games. Angels have nearly the worst bullpen at 29th with a 4.92 EA and Dbacks are not far off at 23rd with a 4.38 ERA. Runs could be scored early and often esp with Edwin squeezing the pitchers.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is Oakland/Minn Over 7.5 with Ramon DeJesus who again is another ump with a slightly skewed lower number this year but is rated as the 6th most hitter friendly umpire in the extreme category scoring 4.31 our of 4.37. This year He's averaging nearly 9 runs per game in `14 games but last year, his 31 games averaged 11.45 runs per game on 63% called strikes (same as this year) with a SO/BB ratio of 2.22. In 12 games of 2020 he averaged 14 runs. This guy has been hitter friendly his whole career. With the fact that the twinks are averaging 9.25 runs over their last 4 game shows they have the capability of getting the total themselves especially against Medina who has a 5,23 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 2 startsd. Medina currently walks righties at 8.8%, so expect some walks and some fireworks.

 

[piratealew]

Someone let me know my plays were missing. not sure what happened. posted on the other forum but here it is.

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-113

⭐️Cubs-110

⭐️Yankees-149

⭐️Bodymore Oreos-108

⭐️Pirates/Cards Over 8-125 (Umpire Over-See writeup-Phil Cuzzi)

⭐️Tigers-139

⭐️Dodgers-1-136

⭐️Marlins/Mets Over 8-115

⭐️Angels/Dbacks Over 8-125

Mets-1-130

Angels+1.5-130 (Sprinkle on the ML+165)

Twins-0.5-130 (F5-First 5 innings)

Dodgers-0.5-130 (F5-First 5 Innings)

Mariners-1-102

Tigers/Nationals Over 8.5-125

Yankees/Royals Over 10-115

Oakland/Minnesota Over 7.5-120

 

[piratealew]

Pitching change with Seattle so no -1 now.

Going with the new line now

Seattle-110

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Oakland/Minnesota Over 7.5-120 should be notated as a top play above

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is ⭐️Seattle/Chicago Over 6.5-120 with Brian Knight as the Umpire. who while being 6-6 to the over this year, is calling is nornal 63% strikes but a very low 1.95 SO/BB Ratio (Below 2 is really awful for pitching). On the hitter friendly scale of umps he is middle of the back rating at 4.28 out of 4.37 ties with Alan porter and Lance Barksdale. Over his last 5 years or 128 games, he is + on the over at 51% but a high 9.1 runs per game on just over 63% called strikes. With Hancock being called up from Triple A I expect opportunities from Chicago and Crochet is due for some regression. It is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

Dodgers/Rangers Over 8-125

 

[piratealew]

Crap Thursday, back to a full slate of Friday's games and new series at least. Good thing Dodgers picks got voided thanks to a pitcher change, not much else went right.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-145
⭐️Tigers+108
⭐️Padres-104
⭐️Orioles-120
⭐️Oakland/Minnesota Over 8-130 (Umpire Over-see writeup-Adrian Johnson)
Braves-1-140
Twins-1-112
⭐️Royals/Dodgers Over 8-120
Cardinals+107
Arizona-1-114
Giants-134
Dodgers-140
Brewers-127
Cleveland+126
Nationals-0.5-120 (F5-First 5 innings)
Texas+135
Pirates-104
Yanks/Red Sux Over 8.5-125
Reds/Brewers Over 7-130
Braves/Rays Over 8-115
Chicago/Arizona Over 8.5-125
Padres/Mets Over 7.5-130

2-2 Thurs on Umpire Overs (50-29 YTD)
***First Umpire over is Oak/Minn Over 8 with Adrian Johnson who falls into the exrteme hitter friendly umpire category. His games are 9-3-2 to the over this year averaging 10.9 runs, with a 2.0 SO/BB ratio and a low 62% called strikes. Over his last 3 years or 100 games he is 58-355-7 to the over for 62.4%, on 9.6 runs over that time. These 2 cashed the over last night with better pitching than tonight. The ERA for his games is a whopping 5.3, so there should be plenty of run scoring opporutnities tonight as both teams are hitting the long ball well now, and the pitching of both staffs is weak, with Oakland #19 in MLB with a .430 ERA in June, while Minnesota is 25th with a 5.07 ERA. Both teams are hitting the home run at a good pace, with the A's at 5th in MLB with 29.42 at bats between homers while Twins are 10th in MLB at 30.95 at bats. With a very favorable ump and both teams hitting the long ball well, the over is a good play today.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over--Yankees/Red Sux Over 8.5---This game has Tony Randazzo as umpire, a very hitter friendly umpire who is hitting 61.5% to the over this year or 8-5 in 13 games, on just over 63% called strikes and a 2.4 SO/BB ratio with almost 10 runs per game at 9.9. His last 4 games have all been double digits going 11, 11, 14, 14. Over his last 3 years, his games are avg 10 runs in 60 games and 56% over in those games. With both offenses hitting above season average with plenty of home runs, and with Bello allowing hits at a very high rate this year, I expect the Yanks to be able to score plenty of runs, Gil has a higher walk rate so that could translate to a few sox runs especially with Randazzo as ump.

 

[piratealew]

Nice of the cards to get the day started right.

***3rd Umpire Over is Marlns/Nats Over 8-120 with Alan Porter who rates as a hitter friendly ump in the medium category as he is fairly consistent at 63% called strikes ans a very low 2.13 SO/BB Ratio. While this year may be an abberation as he is avg 8.5 runs in '24, over the last 5 years his games have hit the over 56.2% of the time in 145 games while averaging a high 9.5 runs per game, on 63% called strikes. Interestingly, in the category of TotRI or total runs initiated where most umps are .5 for most games, Porter has hit 4-5 numbers on a few occassions meaning in that particular game he helped 4 runs score, etc. I had this game pegged to hit around the total of 8 but with Porter's generous hitter friendly strike zone, he might be the help we need to get the over.

 

[piratealew]

Rockies/Pirates UNDER 11.5-130....if I played unders more often this might qualify as an Umpire Under with Rob Drake. His games only avg 7.4 runs per game, on nearly 65 pct strike calls. Over his last 133 games or 5 years his games are going 61% under and avg only 8.5 runs per game and while the game tonight is in mile high colorado, The wind is actually blowing in and not out tonight, at 13 mph in. This may limit the normal jet stream of homer runs out to the OF. Mlodski and Ortiz in a bullpen game for the pirates should also. If it goes over, I'd rather it go over in the 3rd inning, get the pain over with and be done.

 

[piratealew]

Fantatastic Friday going 14-9, cashed #1 top play, 3-0 umpire overs, and 1-0 umpire under.

790-697 YTD/ (412-345 Top plays) Umpire Overs=53-29 Umpire Under=1-0

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Reds+120
⭐️Yankees-1-133
⭐️Orioles-1-115
⭐️Cleveland+115
⭐️Angels/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-See Writeup-Lance Barksdale)
⭐️Cubs-0.5-115 (F5-First 5 innings)
⭐️Dodgers-1-140 (Full game)
⭐️Arizona-140
⭐️Braves-129
⭐️Texas/Seattle Over 6.5-120
⭐️Houston-128
⭐️Padres/Mets Over 8-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)

Dodgers-0.5-125 (F5-First 5 innings)
Seattle-120
Yankees-0.5-115 (F5-First 5 innings)
Pittsburgh-0.5-115 (F5-First 5 innings)
Angels+130
Nats-117
Mets-112
Cubs-1-110 (Full game)
Reds/Brewers Over 8-130
Oakland/Minnesota Over 7.5-125
Toronto/Cleveland Over 8.5-120
Baltimore/Philly Over 8-130 (Umpire Over-see writeup)

***1st Umpire Over is LAA/SFO Over 7.5---with Lance Barksdale, who also has been rated as a consistent hitter-friendly ump close to middle of the pack at 4.28, on a 4.20 to 4.37 scale. Irrespective of the # of runs per game, he is consistently in the lowest % of strike called umpires in MLB of the past many years, this year he's at a very low 61.59%, on 8.3 walks per game this year, he's 8-6 to the over at nearly 9 runs per game. His SO/BB ratio is a very low below 2.0. With Lance helping and 2 gas cans on the mound this one should hit the over with ease like last game, as Sandoval is 1-3 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 40 innings and his last 7 games. While Keaton Winn is 3-4, 7.92 ERA and 1.43 Whip in 30 innings in that span. Both teams hit at league avg with angels at .692 OPS ranking 16th while gians are 15th at a .693. There should be a lot of run scoring opportunities in this game, and a favorable umpire to help.

***2nd umpire Over-Baltimore/Philly Over 8-With Laz Diaz, who is 7-6 to the over this year, with an average of 4.6 ERA, and almost 10 runs per game (9,6) over 13 games behind the plate, with a 2.3 K/SO ratio, on 64% called strikes. His games have seen only 5 go under today's total going like this 6,10, 8, 9, 6, 11, 23, 6, 9, 9, 7, 16, 5. He's not the most hitter friendly ump, but recently has been calling less strikes, more walks, resulting in more runs. The pitching situation is conducive to runs as well as both teams are in the top elite offensive units in MLB in multiple categories. Orioles are 2nd in BA and 1st in slug during day games. Philly is 6th in slug pct in away games, while scoring 5 or more in 3 of their last 5, while Orioles have scored 4 in 6 of their last 7. More and more signals indicate another double digit total possible with a hitter friendly ump.

***3rd Umpire Over--Padres/mets Over 8 with CB Bucknor, another well-known hitter friendly Umpire who is 7-5 to the over this year, on 9.4 runs per game, with a 2.7 SO/BB ratio, on 64% called strikes. His games have gone 7, 5, 9, 12, 2, 11, 6, 8, 16, 7, 17, 13. Already liked the over due to the pitching and situation but CB should help here, and may be responsible for adding another run or two to push us over the total. Both teams are throwing out below avg pitchers with Quintana who can be a gas can at times, an Mazur gave up 8 runs in 3 innings last appearance, and holds a 9 ERA. In a pitcher friendly park like Citfield, a little extra help from bad pitching a hitter friendly ump in Bucknor should aid getting to the over.

Lets have another big day! Good luck everyone

 

[piratealew]

FYI--Pitching change in Milwaukee. I am on Reds still. Very little change as Milwaukee is going with Koenig as an opener, and Wilson in bulk.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is Stl/Chicago Cubs Over 8-130 with Paul Clemons, a very hitter friendly umpire. His games are 8-6 to the over, on 9.8 runs per game and 64% called strikes. Last year his games went 6-3 to the over, while in 2022 and 2023 his games averaged over 11 runs per game over that span, hitting 7-1 to the over in 2021. With Imanaga going it may be surprising to play the over esp given these 2 offenses. However, umpire asside I have this game right at the total of 8 runs, with cubs getting 5 and cards 3. Add in the umpire component who routinely has games where his total runs inititiated is well over 1 run, and sometimes near 2 runs. His last game in Chicago was a 19 run game between the pirates and cubs. In that game it was much like today with a 10+ mph wind out to left (this is ideal direction at Wrigley for all the right handed bats and the jet stream carries well that way). Also pitching that day was Paul Skenes and Justin Steele, 2 ground ball and strike out pitchers, much like Imanaga. I feel more confident in the over with Paul behind the plate.


*5th Umpire Over is Chicago/Arizona Over 8-120 with Nick Mahrley who is 9-5 to the over, on 10.1 runs per game, and a 2.4 SO/BB ratio on just over 63% called strikes. Fedde struggles on the road posting a 4.98 ERA in those games. While Chicago's offense is the worst in MLB, they should be able to put up a few runs on Scott McGough a reliever making a spot start, who is 1-2 and a 5.85 ERA. I had this game pegged for the total at 9 and with some help from Nick this may cash earlier in the game.

 

[piratealew]

Nice of the cubbies to get the 1st 5...

***2nd Umpire UNDER-Pirates/Rockies Under 11-125 With DJ Reyburn who is 2-9 to the under with games averaging a measly 6.7 runs on over 64% called strikes. Evern over the last 2-5 years he is averaging 8.5 runs per game a few runs short of today's # and is 53.5% percent under in his games over that span. Yesterday we won in this series on the under easily and I see this possibly playing out the same way, with a similar pitcher friendly ump and Pit Pitcher Jones who shut the rockies down last time he faced them in a 1-0 Pirates win, where he pitched 7 innings. I expect he will give up a bit more in his 2nd game against them but I see this game as another game around 8 runs or less. Worth noting, the wind situation is about the same as yesterday, very light breeze 6 Mph to left so it's not the normal jet stream out. (Subject to change every few minutes).

 

[piratealew]

Luckily astros bet got voided. changed pitchers at last minute verlander to shitty argheetti, who gives up 7 runs
Seattle ML is also a top play now

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Pittsburgh-1-138 (Full game)