Monday June 10-Monday June 17 MLB

[piratealew]

Awesome Sunday going 16-9, 9-5 Top plays hitting the top play, and 5-0 Umpire overs.

742-652 YTD/ (388-322 Top plays) Umpire Overs=45-20

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Baltimore-138
⭐️Yanks-120 (Soto prob back-Yanks best road team in MLB 24-11. Rodon 3-0 last 3 road starts, allowed 4 runs total, Lugo bombed last start)
⭐️Mariners/White Sox Over 6.5-125
⭐️Asstros-110
⭐️Toronto+103
Padres-1-140
Twins-0.5-128 (F5)
Astros/Giants Over 8-115
Rocks/Twinks Over 8-120

Only 1 umpire assignment so far and it's not a hitter friendly ump.

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over-Rockies/Twins Over 8--Features Alfonso Marquez, who has long rated a very hitter friendly ump and by some sources over the last 5 years, has been rated as the most extreme hitter friendly umpires at a 4.37 out of 4.3. This year his runs in his games have been a bit lower and it may just be bad circumstance, howeever he did work the tor/det game in detroit that hit for 25 runs. He worked a game btween these twins vs clev in clev that combined for 15 runs. His avg Strike call % has been steady over the years at 63%, and a low SO/BB Ratio of 2.4. Over the last 5 years or 149 games, he is 58.5% to the over, on 9.7 runs and a 2.37 SO/BB ratio. While this year his games have seen an avg of 8 runs, last year was more typical of his year with an avg of 9.94 runs per game and 18-12 to the over. I have this game hitting 9 runs and with marquez behind home, he may help us clear the total earlier. Aded a couple units to this to make it a top play as well,

 

[piratealew]

Yanks/Royals Over 8-125

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is also a top play above-Sea/Chicago Over 6.5 with Chris "Gucci" Guccione, who is 7-4-1 to the over this year on 9.7 runs per game, with a low 2.09 SO/BB ratio and a low 62.5% called strike %. Since the 2022 season his games have averaged around 10 runs and a low 62ish% called strike %. In a park that can be a pitchers friend at times in the Pacific NW, I take added comfort Gucci is behind the plate .

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire over is Oak/SD Over 7-120-With Lance Barksdale, who also has been rated as a consistent hitter-friendly ump close to middle of the pack at 4.28, on a 4.20 to 4.37 scale. Irrespective of the # of runs per game, he is consistently in the lowest % of strike called umpires in MLB of the past many years, this year he's at a very low 61.59%, on 8.3 walks per game this year, he's 8-5 to the over at nearly 9 runs per game. His SO/BB ratio is a very low 1.94 which is terrible for pitchers. With an inexperience pitcher going for Oakland, I believe the Padres hitters can feast. Cease also has been very hittable the last month, so I fully expct them to post at least 3-4 here as Barksdale squeezes both pitchers hopefully netting us more walks and runs.

 

[piratealew]

Looks like we're in some luck today as 3 of the 4 i already identified as overs and the ump is helping.

***4th Umpire Over---Also a play above Asstros/Giants Over 8-115---with James Hoye who rates 4.28 on hitter friendly scale placing him one point below extremely hitter friendly and Mark Carlson at 4.29 for frame of reference. He's 5-6 to the over this year but is averaging a very high 9.5 runs per game, on 63% called strikes, with a 2.3 SO/BB ratio, his last game between Oak/ATL netted 20 runs. Previously his last giants game in SF was the game before last in ATL and it netted 12 runs. The game before that he umped a game in Houston with the astros and Halos that netted 11 runs. His previous houston game was also in Houston against NYY which saw 9 runs. This guy is a very hitter friendly ump over many years. I have more cofidence he will help the hitters in this cavernous, windy and sometimes pitcher friendly park on a cold night by the bay.

 

[piratealew]

Looks like we're in some luck today as 3 of the 4 i already identified as overs and the ump is helping.

***4th Umpire Over---Also a play above Asstros/Giants Over 8-115---with James Hoye who rates 4.28 on hitter friendly scale placing him one point below extremely hitter friendly and Mark Carlson at 4.29 for frame of reference. He's 5-6 to the over this year but is averaging a very high 9.5 runs per game, on 63% called strikes, with a 2.3 SO/BB ratio, his last game between Oak/ATL netted 20 runs. Previously his last giants game in SF was the game before last in ATL and it netted 12 runs. The game before that he umped a game in Houston with the astros and Halos that netted 11 runs. His previous houston game was also in Houston against NYY which saw 9 runs. This guy is a very hitter friendly ump over many years. I have more cofidence he will help the hitters in this cavernous, windy and sometimes pitcher friendly park on a cold night by the bay.

The over above (Hous/Giants) is now a scratch for the umpire part of it. I still like the over based on the pitching and hitting but they switched to DJ Reyburn is a very pitcher friendly umpire. This is still an over play, just not expecting any help from the umpire here.

Instead replacing it is one of our favorite over umpires....

***4th umpire over is Toronto/Mil Over 8-130 With Adrian Johnson--here's why. He rates at a 4.29 in the extremely hitter friendly category just above Mark Carlson. Further, in the 2024 campaign across 11 games, he is 9-2 to the over, on a whopping 11.5 runs per game thanks to a very low 61.8% strike call ratio, on a measly 1.91 SO/BB ratio. Last 5 years he's 59.3% over acrross 144 games, good for 9.6 rpg last 5 years. Only 1 game has gone under tonight's 8 total, with3 pushes, going 12, 13, 8, 10, 12, 16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14. It's no secret this guy loves hitting and scoring and with the Blow Jays being 6-3-1 to the over last 10 while Brew crew is 4-1 in their last 5 against TO at home. I like the over to hit with added help from AJ.

 

[krg]

Best of luck tonight & the rest of the week pirate.

 

[piratealew]

Great day Monday cashed the top 3 plays. 1-2-1 umpire overs but cashed the big one on Seattle over. Stupid Asstros could have made it even better but lose in the 10th. Back in a bit with Tuesdays card.

 

[piratealew]

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.
⭐️Phillies-1-125
⭐️Mets-129
⭐️Cleveland-118
⭐️Bodymore Orioles+121
⭐️Oakland/Padres Over 7-120 (Umpire Over-See Writeup)
⭐️Toronto-111
⭐️Yankees-133
⭐️Seattle-0.5-125 (F5-First 5 innings)
⭐️Asstros/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Arizona-1-104
⭐️Tampa-129
Giants+101
Pirates-121
Padres-150
Rangers+150
Nationals+102
Chicago/Tampa Over 7.5-115
Rockies+0.5+110 (F5-First 5 Innings)
Mets/Marlin Over 7-130
Guadians/Red Legs Over 9-112
Pirates/Cards Over 7-130
Rocks/Twins Over 8-115

***First Umpire over is Oak/SD Over 7--which pushed the total last night. Tonight we have another often used umpire in Mark Ripperger who is 8-4 to the over this year, with an avg 4.3 ERA, resulting in nearly 10 runs per game, with a 2.31 SO/BB Ratio. Only 2 of his games this year have gone under tonights 7, with 1 push, going 15, 8, 8, 5, 8, 3, 9, 10, 7, 17, 17, 9, 10. His last 2 in San diego this yr netted a combined 18 runs---8 between rockies and SD (Gomber Vs King), and interestingly near his average at 10 runs with Giants/Padres between 2 shut down aces in Darvish and Webb first week of the season. Added to the umpire help we have some positive over trends, and pitching matchups--The SD Chaplains are 7-3 over last 10 against Oakland, and while A's games tend to go under this year, due to them not scoring as much, they will have more opportunities tonight with Randy Vasquez pitching for SD tonight who holds a 5.4 ERA in 7 starts. I see this game getting close to double digits again.

***2nd Umpire over is Astros/Giants Over 7.5---with John Libka, who has long been known a hitters friendly umpire, rating a .4.27 on a scale up to 4.37 so he's middle of the pack but well above Angel Hernandez. His #'s are slightly down this year at just over 8 runs but he's holding steady still at 63% called strikes and that has been consistent for years. Over a longer horizon just 2 years or 75 of his last games, he's a very high 60.3% to the over, averaging 10 runs per game last 2 years on 64% called strikes and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. He's had a few very high scoring games this year at 16, 19, and 11. Helping the total are the Astros who have one of the best Offenses in the AL, and they hit .258 against the NL and .255 on the road. I believe Houston can put up enough runs against Hicks who has struggled mightly recently, and gave up 4 runs in his only start against an AL team in NYY. Further, Blanco for the stros hasnt been the same since he was busted with the substance giving up 4 runs in his last 2 starts not making it past the 5th inning in both. This total is too low.

 

[piratealew]

A few MLB debuts tonight should be interesting. White sox starting a Thorpe kid from AA, he skipped AAA altogether. i am riding mariners. i doubt he'll be ready. For twins Varland got the call up, first start since April . Guy is a gas can and was when he was in the MLB before. All time he is 0-4, 10.26 ERA in 4 starts. In triple A St Paul in 8 Starts he is posting a 5.31 ERA. Another reason i am on the rocks F5. Angels are seeing Suarez make his first 2024 start. He is 20-24, 5.49 ERA lifetime. Another + for why I am on the snakes

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over--Chicago/Tampa Over 7.5--With CB Bucknor whom we've used before. He is 7-4 to the over this year on 9.6 runs per game, calling 64% strikes with a 2.76 SO/BB Ratio. Gus avg total Runs increase measure of nearly 2 runs per game is a testament to how he will help. With the total at 7.5, i had this pegged at 8-9, and with CB's help, we may see higher.

 

[piratealew]

***4th umpire Over-Mets/Marlins Over 7-With Laz Diaz, who is 7-5 to the over this year, with an average of 4.6 ERA, and almost 10 runs per game (9,9) over 12 games behind the plate, with a 2.2 K/SO ratio, on 64% called strikes. His games have seen only 3 go under today's total going like this 10, 8, 9, 6, 11, 23, 6, 9, 9, 7, 16, 5. He's not the most hitter friendly ump, but recently has been calling less strikes, more walks, resulting in more runs. The pitching situation is conducive to runs as well as Lazardo has been a gas can with a torch lit last 2 starts going 10.1 innings resulting in a 10.45 ERA. The mets are 4th in both team BA (.268) and OPS (.773) the last 2 weeks. Against Lazardo, they've slashed/hit for .245/.300/.35 so I expect the mets to find no trouble scoring here with a hitter friendly home cooked ump. Further both bullpens should give up runs as well as Marlins are 19th ERA (4.16) and 23rd in Whip (1.34) while Mets are 16th in ERA (3.85) and 22nd in Whip (1.34). I have this game just over 9 runs and with some help with Diaz we could easily see Double Digits again.

 

[piratealew]

Mariners changed their Pitcher so scratch the above F5 bet (⭐️Seattle-0.5-125 (F5-First 5 innings)

Instead:

⭐️Seattle-1-120

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire over-Tejas/LA Doyers Over 8.5-120-this game features Nick Mahrley behind the plate who sees an avg 4.9 ERA in his games resulting in nearly 10 runs per game, equaling out to a 8-5 record on the over. He calls 64.2% strikes, and has a 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Only 5 of his 13 have gone under today's total with 2 right at 7 going like this 3, 10, 9, 16, 16, 12, 4, 4, 10, 7, 9, 17, 7. Between having two of the better star laden lineups going tonight, I had this game pegged for 9 runs, now I have a bit more confidence to add this as a playw ith Mahrley helping matters.

 

[piratealew]

Fantatastic day, cashed #1 play again and 3 of top 4. 7-2 top plays, 13-8 overall. 1-3-1 Umpire overs as overs didnt hit as well. Great day over all. back a bit later.

 

[piratealew]

13-8 Tues/7-2 top plays
760-666 YTD/ (398-327 Top plays) / Umpire Overs=47-25

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Guardians+106
⭐️Yanks-144
⭐️Cubs+110
⭐️Cards/Pittsburgh Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup-Dan Bellino)
⭐️Baltimore-120
⭐️Brewers-103
⭐️Rangers/Dodgers Over 8-120
⭐️Asstros+105
⭐️Padres-1-130
⭐️Seattle-0.5-135 (F5-First 5 Innings)
⭐️Nationals+125
Cards-1-113
Dodgers-145
Mets-139
Arizona-135
Rockies+2-130
Yanks/Twinks Over 10-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup-Carlos Torres-extreme hitter friendly)
Cubs/Tampons Over 7.5-110
Rocks/Twinks Over 7.5-125
Boston/Balty Over 9-112
Arizona/LAA Over 8.5-120
Seattle/Chicago Over 7-130

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over--Cards/Pitts Over 7.5---with Dan Bellino a notorious hitter friendly umpire, while he's 7-5 to the over in 2024, the ERA for his games is 4.4 but averaging a whopping 10.8 runs, on a 2.34 SO/BB Ratio on 63% called strikes. His last game netted 19 runs in Kansas city. Over 78 of his last games, just last 2 years, he's 46-28 to the over, for 62.2% (very high), and 9.9 runs scored per game in that span also with a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. Working in our favor with Bellino to the over is the pitching today with Falter for Pitt who has been very hittable late, and a Pitt team scoring more runs of late. Both teams have better BA and scoring #'s at night. I am on the over thanks to the matchup and added confidence bellino helps us get over the hump. I had this game pegged just over 8 runs and with some help we might see this cash early.

***2nd Umpire Over is Yanks/Twinks Over 10---Carlos Torres is the ump today who's numbers this year may look skeweed as he's 5-7-1 to the over and 8,.7 runs per game but calls a very low 63.2% strikes. Torres has been rated consistently as the 7th most hitter friendly ump in the "extreme category" above Mark Carlson, and Adrian Johnson, at 4.31 out of 4.37. His last 148 games or 5 years tell the full story why, he's 82-63 to the over or 57%, and averaging a whopping 9.8 runs per game, on 2.4 SO/BB ratio and a low 63% strikes. The yanks cashed the over themselves yesterday and with the higher number, Torres should help in combi with the fact the yanks are now 7th in runs per game at 4.93 but even more during road games at 5.06, while royals are tied for 4th in runs per game at 4.94 in night games while it goes up to 5.56 in hme games. Royals going with a rookie then Lynch in Bulk for a bullpen day, I see no reason why the yanks cant put up tons of runs again, and with some umpire help we may get this total earlier.

 

[piratealew]

13-8 Tues/7-2 top plays
760-666 YTD/ (398-327 Top plays) / Umpire Overs=47-25

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Guardians+106
⭐️Yanks-144
⭐️Cubs+110
⭐️Cards/Pittsburgh Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup-Dan Bellino)
⭐️Baltimore-120
⭐️Brewers-103
⭐️Rangers/Dodgers Over 8-120
⭐️Asstros+105
⭐️Padres-1-130
⭐️Seattle-0.5-135 (F5-First 5 Innings)
⭐️Nationals+125
Cards-1-113
Dodgers-145
Mets-139
Arizona-135
Rockies+2-130
Yanks/Twinks Over 10-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup-Carlos Torres-extreme hitter friendly)
Cubs/Tampons Over 7.5-110
Rocks/Twinks Over 7.5-125
Boston/Balty Over 9-112
Arizona/LAA Over 8.5-120
Seattle/Chicago Over 7-130

Left this one off: ⭐️Phillies-113 which should be 3rd under yanks

 

[piratealew]

Total for baltimore should say:
Atlanta/Baltimore Over 9-112 (not boston)