Monday July 8th-Sunday July 14th MLB

[piratealew]

Keep cashing those tickets Pirate!!!

thank you! lets try to make it 4 good days in a row...GL!

Looks like a lot of overs again based on the situations, about half the games i have pegged as overs, totals have been real hot last few days, hopefully the trend continues.

1104-982 YTD/ (554-496 Top plays) Umpire Overs=107-75 Umpire Under=8-6

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-134
⭐️Cleveland-137
⭐️Cardinals-120 (Game 1)
⭐️Pirates/Brewers Over 8-135 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Royals+134 (Game 2)
⭐️Boston-1-130
⭐️Orioles-1-110
⭐️Mets-0.5-138 (F5)
⭐️Tampa-105
⭐️Dodgers+0.5-115 (F5 innings)
⭐️Braves-124
⭐️Twins-142 (Game 1)
⭐️Tampa/NYY Over 7.5-125 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Brewers-145
Padres/Mariners Over 7.5-110 (Umpire Over)
Mets-1-140 (Full Game)
Reds-1-112
Baltimore/Chicago Over 8-120 (Umpire Over)
Boston/Oakland Over 9-130
Astros-1.5-105
Texas/LAA Over 8.5-130
Dodgers/Phils Over 9-120
Giants-140
Mets/Nats Over 9-115
White Sox+1.5-105 (GAME 2)
Royals/Cards Over 7.5-125 (Game 2)
Twins/White Sox Over 7.5-112 (Game 2)

Almost hit all 4 of the umpire calls yesterday, giants game finished a run short. Hope you all have enjoyed the right ups, yesterday they were spot on, thanks to good data and some analysis.

Umpire Overs=3-1 Monday/107-75 YTD

***1st Umpire Over is Pirates/Brewers Over 8 with Clint Vondrak who is 12-6 over this year on 10.89 runs per game and 64% strikes and a 2.6 SO/BB Ratio. In the last 3 game series these 2 went 2-1 over and combined for 11 runs per game, last night continued the trend with 14 runs scored. Pitts offense while anemic is better on the road avg 4.23 runs while Milwaukee avg 5.15 runs per game at home. Perez has struggled badly on the road and he's 0-2 with an 8+ ERA in 3 games against the brewers, the over and brewers should be a good bet.

***2nd Umpire Over is Tampa/NYY Over 7.5 with Brian Walsh who is 11-7 over this yr on 9.47 runs per game and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. The yanks are 4-1 over against the rays and are 7-2-1 over last 10 games, and with stroman on the mound and his 6.19 ERA last 3 starts and the fact that he is 7 for 7 Over last 7 starts, i expect tampa to light up the board. Tampa's bullpen should also give a few up to the yanks with a collective 4.44 ERA


***3rd Umpire Over is Padres/Mariners Over 7.5 with Charlie Ramos who is 11-7 over and a high 10.26 runs per game on 63% strikes and a low 2.4 SO/BB ratio. The mariners are 4-1 over last 5 and 9-3 last 12 Miller starts, and 5 of San Dog's last 6 games have gone over and with today's matchup I have this at 8 runs before the umpiring news and added 1 for Ramos as his avg run impact is 1.5 per game.

***4th Umpire Over is Baltimore/Chicago Over 8 with Mark Carlson who is rated a moderate hitter friendly ump at 4.28 tied w/Porter, just below extreme hitter friendly category, this is bc like clockwork he has a low 63% strike call every year and a low 2.5 or less SO/BB ratio, this year he's avg almost 9 runs and is 9-8 Over, last year was more typical at almost 10 runs per game. Last nights game went over, and i expect this too as O's rank 3rd in MLB in runs score at home, and has gone over 3 of last 4 at home, while pitching staff has given up 7 runs or more in 2 of their previous 4 games, and the cubs have gone over or pushed the over in 3 of last 4 road games, scoring 5 or more 3 out of last 4 on road. Chicago pitching ranks in bottom half of mlb in Whip and ERA, so runs should be plenty with a hitter friendly ump.


Euro/Copa=4-0 Tuesday

Nethlands Team total over 1+110/To Qualify+110/Over 2.5 goals+145

Copa
Colombia Draw No Bet+100/Colombia BTTS+115/Colombia-105 To Qualify/Over 2.5+170

 

[piratealew]

Adding:
Texas-120 (F5)
Cleveland/Detroit Over 7-135 (Wind jetting out to LF/C at 15-20 mph)

***1st Umpire UNDER is Miami/Houston UNDER 8.5-125 with Chris Segal who is 10-8 UNDER on a high 65.14% strikes and near 3 SO/BB Ratio, which is working out to 8.2 runs per game. Last year was similar 17-12 Under on just over 8 runs and over 64% strikes. Segal's avg run impact is minimal at 1.1 (lowest is 0.8), meaning he's responsible for adding less runs than the avg umpire. Tonight the game features the Marlins who has scored the 2nd fewest amount of runs in MLB and the least amount of Homers in MLB. The under is 10-5 when Valdez pitches. I could see a 5-2 type game for a Home team win.

 

[piratealew]

Someone reminded me i forgot my Padres play. It is a top play

⭐️Padres-132

 

[piratealew]

On them thank you. Who reminded you?

a friend in my telegram group.

Left off one over, not the best umpire for this game but both pitchers, esp Cessioni have been awful. The over is 11-3 last 14 for dbacks, think they make it 12 tonight.

⭐️Atlanta/Arizona Over 8.5-125

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Giants/Blow Jays over 7-115

 

[fredo0130]

Damn that first five Dodgers game hurt me. Phillies scored 2 in bottom of 5th.

 

[fredo0130]

I sounded all your overs. We need runs!

 

[fredo0130]

Pounded*

 

[piratealew]

Damn that first five Dodgers game hurt me. Phillies scored 2 in bottom of 5th.

stupid error on SS. Ball was a routine out for 3rd out and he tried to get cute. cost them a run. Right call, wrong result.

 

[piratealew]

a friend in my telegram group.

Left off one over, not the best umpire for this game but both pitchers, esp Cessioni have been awful. The over is 11-3 last 14 for dbacks, think they make it 12 tonight.

⭐️Atlanta/Arizona Over 8.5-125

that one was easy and the giants over. runs were hard to come by in many games tonight.

I sounded all your overs. We need runs!

Hope you loaded up on the late overs and brewers over top over play.

We'll get 'em back tomorrow.

 

[piratealew]

I am thinking of betting Detroit Tigers for $6500 to try and get even. I really need to get even. Those surgery bills can be expensive, you of all people should know about hospital bills.

We already know you're doc/jvegas and the clowns across the street with nothing better to do than troll. Funny you show up after one night but not the previous 3 great nights and many before. You have nothing better to do than troll on your parents computer? Get a life and stop joking about Cancer, karma's a $#$#, maybe you'll get cancer soon and STFU

Wild day for baseball, faves went 6-11 and lot of unexpected results. Looks like a lot of people dealt with the same. 1 bad day and the trolls come out, which is funny bc they are dead silent the majority of the days as we've been killing it, and do in all sports and it makes them upset and jealous. How pathetic of a person does one have to be to create multiple aliases to troll and harrass, then spread lies and participate in a circle jerk on a dying website? Everyone can see these fools for who they are. Low life scum that live in their parents basement. Just check the nonsense of my thread here, across the street where they spread lies and rumors and on reddit. They must really have terrible, boring lives to be so obsessed with Pirate on the interwebs.
Lets see how they spin everything else in my posts, and I bet they will be back here with more aliases like the crackhead above and his "trans surgery" nonsense. Funny how quiet they were just the day before or the 3 days before that.

1115-1002 YTD/ (559-506 Top plays) Umpire Overs=108-78 Umpire Under=8-7

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-135
⭐️Mets-130
⭐️Rays/Yanks Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Tigers-123
⭐️Toronto+110
⭐️Baltimore-129
⭐️Reds-1-129
⭐️Atlanta/Arizona Over 8-112
⭐️Yankees-113
⭐️Seattle-1-124
⭐️Houston/Miami Over 8-135
Pirates-126 (F5)
Mets/Nats Over 8-125 (Umpire Over)
Diamondbacks+124
Pirates/Brewers Over 7.5-125
Phillies-0.5-105 (F5)
Seattle-0.5-115 (F5)
Houston-1-138
Reds/Rocks Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over)
Phillies/LAD Over 9-115
Oakland+2-128
Houston-0.5-125 (F5)
Chicago/Balt UNDER 9-120 (Umpire UNDER)
Toronto/SF Over 7.5-110

Will do Umpire writeups in a bit. Tied up with a few other things right now (you know, the medical crap these trolls yap about, let's see how they spin this one).

 

[piratealew]

^Pirates/Brewers Over is a top play, and umpire over call.

***1st Umpire Over is Rays/Yanks Over 7.5 with Edwin Moscoso who is 11-7 Over on over 9 runs per game and a 63% strike call, with 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. Most years he is around 9-10 runs per game and is a consistent hitter friendly ump rated at 4.34 by EVA in the extreme hitter category. Both pitching staffs have had troubles in July with NY being 15th with a 4.57 ERA over games while Tampa sits 21st with a 5.03 ERA in 7 games. The offenses have doing better lately with Arozarena and Diaz each having 800+ OPS while Judge and Soto each have 800+ OPS in the last 30 days. Nasty nestor is capable of good games and blow ups (my buddy Felix Roque who pitched at NC State grew up with Nestor in Miami and played with him-says he's just as tempermental as you see on the mound).

***2nd Umpire Over is Mets/Nats Over 8 with chad fairchild who is 8-8 Over on over 8 runs but a 63% strike call and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio, while in 2023 and most years he's at 9 runs, sometimes over 11 runs and he is rated by EV Analytics as a moderately hitter friendly ump at 4.26 with Derek Thomas and one of our fave over umps Andy Fletcher. Interstingly, the over is 7-1 last 8 starts for Gore while 4-1 over for mets last 5 Peterson starts. I had this game just over 8 and with Fairchild's 1.5 run impact per game, i could see 9-10+

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Pirates/Brewers Over 7.5 with Jordan Baker, who is 10-7 over on 9.5 runs and a 63% strike call with a 2.6 SO/BB Ratio, while last year he was 18-8 Over and 10.75 runs. He is also rated 4.26 as a moderately hitter friendly ump with Chad Fairchild. The pirates last 3 have gone over the total and 6 of the last 9, while 25 out of 42 Brewers home games have gone over, and also their last 3 games. Civale gave up 4 runs in 5 IP in his first start for Milwaukee, and is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA against Pitt so expect the bats to light up.It is a top play.

***4th Umpire Over is Colorado/Cincy Over 8.5 with Lance Barksdale rated at 4.29 in the EXTREME hitter friendly category due to his low strike call and more walks, as this year he is 11-9 over, almost 9 runs but a paltry 2.03 SO/BB Ratio and only 62% strikes. Last year very similar in strikes and walks but avg over 9 runs. Most years see his avg 9-10 runs+ and + on the over. These 2 have now gone 3-2 over with a combined 12.8 runs per game, with the reds scoring 12 or more 3 times against the Rocks. Rockies have scored at least 3 in 9 of last 12, so i do believe they can get their 3-4 runs while Reds supply the majority for the over on gas can Gomber who has a 4.78 ERA in 4 games against reds.

***5th Umpire Over is ⭐️Houston/Miami Over 8 with Larry Vanover, also rated as extreme at 4.3 right behind Wegner and Tichenor, due to his low strike call and more walks. This year as most years hes around 64% strike call and a 2.4 so/bb ration with his year avg almost 9 runs a game, last yr was more typical of his calls at 11.6 runs, 61.5% strikes and an insanely low 1.9 SO/BB Ratio. The astros are 6-4 over last 10 while marlins 6-3-1, and with 2 rookie pitchers going today, i expect runs on both sides. Bloss is making only his 2nd career start while Munos goes against one of the top offenses. Over should hit like last night but bc of both teams.

Yes, I hate unders but they've been ok to me this year overall and will play them when the situation is right..last night missed the astros under thanks to a big houston inning who won 9-1. Game was more a 6-1 type game, but thanks to a few mistakes the astros got the over but we move on to today's under.

***1 Umpire UNDER is Baltimore/Chicago UNDER 9 with John Bacon who is 5-3 under this year on a high almost 65% strikes, 2.8 SO/BB Ration and 8.5 runs per game. With both pitchers throwing their best of late, and Steele and Suarez limiting walks, while Baltimore's hitters are impatient and dont wait for walks, I see a pitchers dual with the help of an umpire's larger K zone for the 2 starter's. Chicago sits in the bottom 10 of strikeout rates and has struggled this season getting runners home. I see this as a 4-2 type Orioles Win.

 

[inzane]

Good luck Pirate and thanks for your posts...

 

[piratealew]

Good luck Pirate and thanks for your posts...

thank you buddy, lets make some $

 

[piratealew]

One team total that really stood out, as Mets should pound Gore, who has a 4 ERA against the Mets, and has a 7 ERA last 4 games. The mets have score 6 or more last 2 games and 5+ in 3 of last 5 games.

Mets Team Total Over 4-115

 

[piratealew]

Reddit & here are the only places that let you lie. Anywhere else you don't post because they keep a record of your units. You're a well known documented big time loser. That's as fast as God himself. Enjoy your fantasy.

Wrong. I am a documented WINNER and that's why your clown ass showed up over here on your 1 of many 1000 aliases you keep creating. Keep the hate coming, it means I am winning.
And you just created the account today. You trolls are so fuckin stupid.

Not getting any attention from your mom and dad today?

 

[piratealew]

^Pretty easy to see the above trolling comments from the idiot DocHoliday across the street, he's now yapping about cancer and all kinds of BS in a thread about gman and me. Too funny that this low life has 24 hours a day to stalk Pirate and be obsessed with my posts and comments.
It's ok Doc, we all know you're a loser who can't cap games. I heard you were in Gamblers Annon and have to attend meetings between creating 500 aliases to troll? Maybe that's why you're so miserable and the fact you're obviously single, no woman (or your boyfriend with the trans surgery) would ever want to associate with loser trolls like you.
Keep on yapping and lying, we all can see the BS, i get many msgs daily now about your nonsense, all calling you a sick loser. Just like we all know DOC Aka Johnnyvegas and all the other aliases here and across the street.
Enjoy your countless hours posting a dead forum that is about to crash

 

[piratealew]

Doc continues to spew LIES all over at the dying site across the street. Now it's about Dabo Sweeney. I never said I knew Dabo. I said over and over i am friends with several alabama former football players, Matt McMullin, TJ Davidson, Trent Davidson, all from the Shula, Price, Franchionne days. Matt connected me with Barry Krause (1979 MVP of Sugar bowl, see picture--he painted that SI cover himself years later after his Dolphins career), whom I've golfed with and gotten tickets to bama games from. These guys were saying Dabo wanted to go back to Bama, as he played there. Matt is the good friends Dabo's family as his dad Coach McMullin was Dabo's High school coach in Montgomery and his mom babysat Dabo and his brothers for a time. Good grief so many lies these fools tell.
And yes, I grew up in Chapel Thrill, graduated from East Chapel Hill High. I knew Dean Smith well as his as daughters were classmates and friends through High school, I went to all his camps and he knew me (like everyone he met) by their name and their family. My dad bought out first house in Carrboro NC (Connected with CH) from DAVE LOHSE the Sports Info Director at UNC. He always gifted us tickets and sometimes in the press area with him when i was a kid.
No big deal when you grow up in a college town. Yes, Grady Little former durham bulls manager was a friend before he moved up in the minors and eventually red sox and dodgers.
Apparently, I've lived a life 1000 times more interesting just in a few events than these idiots have lived in a lifetime. Now let's see how they spin these truths again....just like these clowns said I was 5'3 (I'm 6 foot 1), and now say I'm 6'5.
And joking about Cancer and medical bills too is your thing. Karma is a bitch. I never said I had anything to do with Cancer appts today anywhere, I just said MEDICAL (my ACL). But you spun that too into another lie.
Get a life Doc, and go stalk some other of your male crushes. I dont swing your way but I appreciate your obsession with me, now get over it and stop sending me PM's on all the sites too.

 

[piratealew]

and Since Doc wants to continue with the lies on that dying site, no Doc, I dont owe you jack squat, I dont owe you pictures of me so you can spank off too. Yes, I did walk on at ECU, i never once said i was a star or even played any meaningful game action, i was scout team, that's all I ever said and you go spinning bs that i was a 5 star recruit. I was recruited by D3 and D2 schools, Elon and a few others, They dont recruit 3/4/5 stars, i dont think i had any stars. I was invited to walk on at ECU/UNC and a few local schools.
Look at how ridiculous you are over there spewing nonsense Doc, All from a mental midget who's probably 5 foot nothing in his parents basement. You keep up all your slander and lies though it obviously keeps you entertained, but if you're ever man enough, come to VA, I'll give you my address to my humble 6 Bedroom, 3,000 sq ft home in Midlothian, which is 100X times the trailer you own. If you really have a problem with me, bring it like a man or SHUT UP and stop yapping on your parent's computer. It would not end well for you, but we all know you're too chicken to get to say anything to a man to his face.

Now let's see some pics of you in your little league uniform (see how stupid that is)? Because I doubt you even played a day of T-ball. And we all know you cant handicap, that's why you spend hours on your various aliases and many sites stalking and trolling. You did it to @G-Man! for YEARS, and were BANNED for life by HOTROCKS whom i talk to frequently. I was only banned on that one trash site, no where else and that was after you and your troll friends tore my threads for days, they banned L2K and me bc of his nonsense with BMM who has been banned on every site he's been on. Another lie you tell, while also lying about your lifetime ban at RX and your other aliases. That other site is going downhill thats why BMR and this forum is being promoted.

Now back to Baseball....

adding:
Baltimore-110 (F5)

 

[grngbln1771]

Best yet, they're now accusing that @grngbln1771 that asked me a question about players wear and tear, trying to say that alias is me asking myself a question. Too funny, from the same clown over there with 500 aliases talking to himself. I'm sure gmbln1771 will find that funny. everything they say is full of $hit.

I am not his alias. Obsession and mental illness are sad. I asked PA this question, as a "shot in the dark" and he gave a very thoughtful reply.

So many forums turning into cesspools. There's probably some drama these trolls can find in the men's shower, instead of bringing it here. These trolls with multi-aliases, probably betting their SNAP benefits and mad because it's Friday and they lost all their Meatloaf night at Cheddars money on a 26-team parlay.