Monday July 8th-Sunday July 14th MLB

[piratealew]

I guess it does get tricky near the All-Star break good point

mentally a lot of guys are on vacation already, esp the guys who didnt make the ASG. Never know who's going to be focused this week or not. Most of the Orioles team sure looks like it. glad they did last night me at least after burning me in the cubs series.

 

[piratealew]

apparently if you faded my top plays yest, you'd go 4-10, but 3-9 the night before. Funny how that works and the talks of fading, long term fading winners doesn't work. We always bounce back, let's get them today before the ASB. Lost several 1 run games and a handful of totals by a run, just didnt cut our way like the day before. First games of series, Fridays/Mondays can be a bit wacky, easier to figure out middle end of series, maybe that holds true again this Saturday.

1150-1029 YTD/ (572-519 Top plays) Umpire Overs=114-84 Umpire Under=10-7

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Pirates-139
⭐️Twins-106
⭐️Braves+117
⭐️Reds-146
⭐️Mets/Rockies Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Dodgers-115
⭐️Royals+122
⭐️Phils-1-132
⭐️Seattle-136
⭐️Cubs+116 (Game 1)
⭐️Houston+106
⭐️Mets-0.5-125 (F5)
⭐️Cubs/Cards Over 8.5-120 (Game 1)--(Umpire Over)
⭐️Toronto+112 (F5)--Tor worst pen in Majors, Berrios solid and has gone 5IP every gm since May)
Reds/Marlins Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over)
Cleveland+103
Brewers-124
Cubs TT Over -110 (Game 1)
Dodgers/Tigers Over 9-110 (Umpire Over)
Cardinals-126 (Game 2)
Bodymore Orioles-120 (F5)
Reds-135 (F5)
Seattle-0.5-105 (F5)
Twins/Giants Over 8-115
Houston/Texas Over 8-115
Mets-1.5-103 (Full game)
Toronto+125 (Full game)
Pirates/White Sox Over 8.5-115
Brewers/Nats UNDER 9-110 (Umpire UNDER)


***First Umpire Over is Mets/Rocks Over 8 with Bruce Drekman who has a whopping 12.24 run avg, and an incredible 14-3 Over record, on 2.4 SO/BB Walks and 64% strikes. 3 of the last 4 games btw these 2 hit the over, with both teams avg 10 runs btw the 2 per game and their opposition. I would expect both starters to give up a few runs each and the mets and rockies pens are ranked 23rd and 27th in BP ERA respectively.

***2nd Umpire OVER is Cubs/Cards Over 8.5 with Mike Muchlinski who is avg a whopping 11.18 runs, on a 64% strike call and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio, and is 9-8 over, while last year he was avg 10 runs, and had a 18-13 over. Lance Lynn has allowed 7 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts vs. CHC, and gave up 10 runs in his last start. I had this game just over 9 and with Mike behind the dish squeezing the gas can Lynn, I could see plenty of runs being coughed up.

***3rd Umpire Over is Reds/Marlins Over 8.5 with Derek Thomas who this and last year are avg 9.5 runs with a 10-6 Over this year, on a low 2.09 SO/BB Ratio and 62% strikes.

***4th Umpire Over is Dodgers/Tigers OVER 9 with Marvin Hudson who is avg over 9 runs, 10-5 OVER, on 64% strikes. Last 4 years have all hit just about 9 runs on 63-64% strikes and a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. I had this game between 9-10 runs, and with Hudson's near 1.5 run impact, I could see this going over as over last 2 weeks, LA is ranks 10th wRC+ (112) and 9th in wOBA (.3250 while Tigers are 9th (112), and 8th (.328). It will be near 90 and sticky/humid, with 2 rookie hurlers with LA's pitcher boasting an over 7 ERA and Montero over 4. Runs should be scored this game.


***1st Umpire UNDER is Brewers/Nats UNDER 9 with Ben May who avg just 7,9 runs on 64.5% strikes and a near 3 SO/BB Ratio. His games are 12-6 UNDER. His avg run impact is a paltry 0.9 (most umps are over 1-1.2). Dallas can be a gas can but he did pitch 6 scoreless gaainst the nats last time. 3 of the last 4 have gone under btw these 2 and only 25 runs were scored in 3 games last year in Milwaukee btw the 2. Nats only bat .190 and a .307 slug in 5 previous games in Milw, while Parker has pitched well at times this year with a 3.44 era, and allowed only 1 over 6 IP last start.

 

[piratealew]

apparently if you faded my top plays yest, you'd go 4-10, but 3-9 the night before. Funny how that works and the talks of fading, long term fading winners doesn't work. We always bounce back, let's get them today before the ASB. Lost several 1 run games and a handful of totals by a run, just didnt cut our way like the day before. First games of series, Fridays/Mondays can be a bit wacky, easier to figure out middle end of series, maybe that holds true again this Saturday.

1150-1029 YTD/ (572-519 Top plays) Umpire Overs=114-84 Umpire Under=10-7

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Pirates-139
⭐️Twins-106
⭐️Braves+117
⭐️Reds-146
⭐️Mets/Rockies Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Dodgers-115
⭐️Royals+122
⭐️Phils-1-132
⭐️Seattle-136
⭐️Cubs+116 (Game 1)
⭐️Houston+106
⭐️Mets-0.5-125 (F5)
⭐️Cubs/Cards Over 8.5-120 (Game 1)--(Umpire Over)
⭐️Toronto+112 (F5)--Tor worst pen in Majors, Berrios solid and has gone 5IP every gm since May)
Reds/Marlins Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over)
Cleveland+103
Brewers-124
Cubs TT Over -110 (Game 1)
Dodgers/Tigers Over 9-110 (Umpire Over)
Cardinals-126 (Game 2)
Bodymore Orioles-120 (F5)
Reds-135 (F5)
Seattle-0.5-105 (F5)
Twins/Giants Over 8-115
Houston/Texas Over 8-115
Mets-1.5-103 (Full game)
Toronto+125 (Full game)
Pirates/White Sox Over 8.5-115
Brewers/Nats UNDER 9-110 (Umpire UNDER)


***First Umpire Over is Mets/Rocks Over 8 with Bruce Drekman who has a whopping 12.24 run avg, and an incredible 14-3 Over record, on 2.4 SO/BB Walks and 64% strikes. 3 of the last 4 games btw these 2 hit the over, with both teams avg 10 runs btw the 2 per game and their opposition. I would expect both starters to give up a few runs each and the mets and rockies pens are ranked 23rd and 27th in BP ERA respectively.

***2nd Umpire OVER is Cubs/Cards Over 8.5 with Mike Muchlinski who is avg a whopping 11.18 runs, on a 64% strike call and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio, and is 9-8 over, while last year he was avg 10 runs, and had a 18-13 over. Lance Lynn has allowed 7 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts vs. CHC, and gave up 10 runs in his last start. I had this game just over 9 and with Mike behind the dish squeezing the gas can Lynn, I could see plenty of runs being coughed up.

***3rd Umpire Over is Reds/Marlins Over 8.5 with Derek Thomas who this and last year are avg 9.5 runs with a 10-6 Over this year, on a low 2.09 SO/BB Ratio and 62% strikes.

***4th Umpire Over is Dodgers/Tigers OVER 9 with Marvin Hudson who is avg over 9 runs, 10-5 OVER, on 64% strikes. Last 4 years have all hit just about 9 runs on 63-64% strikes and a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. I had this game between 9-10 runs, and with Hudson's near 1.5 run impact, I could see this going over as over last 2 weeks, LA is ranks 10th wRC+ (112) and 9th in wOBA (.3250 while Tigers are 9th (112), and 8th (.328). It will be near 90 and sticky/humid, with 2 rookie hurlers with LA's pitcher boasting an over 7 ERA and Montero over 4. Runs should be scored this game.


***1st Umpire UNDER is Brewers/Nats UNDER 9 with Ben May who avg just 7,9 runs on 64.5% strikes and a near 3 SO/BB Ratio. His games are 12-6 UNDER. His avg run impact is a paltry 0.9 (most umps are over 1-1.2). Dallas can be a gas can but he did pitch 6 scoreless gaainst the nats last time. 3 of the last 4 have gone under btw these 2 and only 25 runs were scored in 3 games last year in Milwaukee btw the 2. Nats only bat .190 and a .307 slug in 5 previous games in Milw, while Parker has pitched well at times this year with a 3.44 era, and allowed only 1 over 6 IP last start.

made 2 typos, pirates are -134. Twins +103

 

[piratealew]

Copa/Euro=3-3/4-0/6-2=20-9 YTD

Uruguay+110 (First Half)/Uruguay-1+150 (Full TIme)/Under 2.5 goals+125

 

[inzane]

Good luck today Pirate!

 

[piratealew]

Good luck today Pirate!

thank you! you too

Cubs team total should be Cubs TT Over 4-110 (Game 1)

up too early this morning thanks to a tree falling in my neighbor's backyard at 3AM during a bad T-storm. Luckily didnt hit any structures, some leaves another neighbor had piled up caught fire briefly from lightning, so of course fire trucks, EMS, police all were showing up on our block, woke the baby and kids, so no luck getting them back to bed after all that.

 

[jjgold]

Let’s see how everything plays out today. Best of luck.

 

[piratealew]

thank you, you too!

added:
Toronto/Arizona Over 8.5-120

***2nd Umpire UNDER is Seattle/LAA UNDER 8-120 with Rob Drake who is 11-6 under, on a low 7.5 runs per game, due to a 65% strike call and near 3 SO/BB Ratio. Because of these numbers most years he is rated 4.19 in the pitcher friendly cat. w/ Rackley, Tosi, Diaz. This game features 2 of the lowest scoring teams with the Mariners rated 27th at 3.9 runs per, and Angels at 25th at 4, while pitching has been the strong point as Seattle is 2ND in MLB with a 2.41 ERA in 9 July games while is LA is 25th with a 5.3 ERA in 10 games in July. With RISP Mariners and angels aren't good, as M's are 21st with a .727 OPS in those scenarios while Angels are 23rd posting a .701 OPS.

 

[inzane]

Fukkin' Dodgers sukk...

 

[piratealew]

Fukkin' Dodgers sukk...

i was watching it, and after first guy got 3 on, i knew Tigers were coming back. They bring in the 2nd guy to close it out with 2 outs, 9-7 but he had terrible reverse splits. Lefty bangs a homer to tie it. saw that coming. That was ugly.

The 2nd umpire under-⭐️Seattle/LAA UNDER 8-120 should be a top play.

 

[JDS]

Fukkin' Dodgers sukk...

Absolutely horrendous beat, but I’ve seen them do the same exact thing in the 9th inning down five runs and win. This team is very erotic. When postseason arrives they will not win shit, because they have no real consistency, regardless if they’re hot going into the postseason, don’t be fooled.

 

[piratealew]

Absolutely horrendous beat, but I’ve seen them do the same exact thing in the 9th inning down five runs and win. This team is very erotic. When postseason arrives they will not win shit, because they have no real consistency, regardless if they’re hot going into the postseason, don’t be fooled.

they said it was the first time dodgers had given up 5 runs in the 9th inning since 2009! And this team is a bunch of prima-donna's, Hollywood has gotten to some of them. I doubt they win either, paper champ that's all.

 

[JDS]

Absolutely horrendous beat, but I’ve seen them do the same exact thing in the 9th inning down five runs and win. This team is very erratic. When postseason arrives they will not win shit, because they have no real consistency, regardless if they’re hot going into the postseason, don’t be fooled.

Not erotic lol good luck the rest of the way Pirate.

 

[piratealew]

Not erotic lol good luck the rest of the way Pirate.

I figured it was an auto correct or you were at one of the fine gentleman lunch parlors on Dale Mabry in Tampa HA!

At least the Pirates didnt make it erotic in the 9th....good to cash that one, now lets get some more

 

[piratealew]

3-0 Umpire Overs today, just need Mets over to nail all today.

 

[piratealew]

Braves+132 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

Cubs/Cards Over 8-125 (Game 2)

 

[piratealew]

Cash mets Over, 4-0 Umpire overs.

Nats had to hit a 2 out 9th run homer to blow the under call. what a day.

 

[piratealew]

Another real good day, hit 4-0 Umpire overs, 4 out of top 5 cashed, 9-7 on top plays overall. Will try to get Sunday's card out a bit later, tied up with family and kids most of the day.

 

[piratealew]

Another real good day, hit 4-0 Umpire overs, 4 out of top 5 cashed, 9-7 on top plays overall. Will try to get Sunday's card out a bit later, tied up with family and kids most of the day.

Great day yesterday, hope to have another + day heading into the ASB. Not as much time for writeups today, dealt with a minor health emergency earlier this morning now taking the kids to the pool and baseball fields later, so just hitting the highlights.

1166-1044 YTD/ (581-526 Top plays) Umpire Overs=118-84 Umpire Under=11-8

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Braves-1-131
⭐️Seattle-1-140
⭐️Baltimore-110 (Full game)---(Die Hard Yanks fan but today we fade Rodon/Yanks/Sweep)
⭐️Asstros-128 (The daily Fade pick according to some dude on a board, but #4 won last 2 days)
⭐️Mets/Rockies Over 8.5-112
⭐️Cubs+119
⭐️Twinks+117
⭐️Dodgers-1-120
⭐️Dbags-140
⭐️Reds-1-120
⭐️Brewers-139
⭐️Royals+123
⭐️Baltimore/NYY Over 9-125 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Cubs/Cards Over 8-125 (Umpire Over)
Mets-1-144
Phillies-1.5-130
Twins/Giants Over 7.5-120
Royals/Sox Over 9-125 (Umpire Over)
Guardians/Rays Over 7.5-112 (Umpire Over)
Dodgers/Tigers Over 9-120
Guardians+116
Dbags-0.5-105 (F5)
Pirates-1.5-125
Braves-0.5-121 (F5)
Baltimore-108 (F5)
Seattle-0.5-115 (F5)
Blow Jays/Dbags Over 8-115
Reds-0.5-125
Astros/Rangers Over 7.5-125
Seattle/LAA Over 8-120

Umpire Overs=4-0 Sat/118-84 YTD

***Balty/NYY Over 9 with Emil Jiminez who is 10-8 over but avg 9.4 runs on a low 2.4 SO/BB Ratio and 64% strikes. 2 of the leagues best offenses showcased in this one with O's most HR and yankes scored most runs. Kremer has a bad 6.58 ERA at home and Rodon is a gas can these days boasting a 10.64 ERA against AL EAST. This should breeze past with the help of Emil

***2nd Umpire Over is STL/Chicago Over 8 with James Hoye who is 10-7 Over but avg 9.2 RPG on 63% strikes, and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. He's also rated 4.29 putting him in extreme HF terrirtory. Mikolas has a home ERA of 6.18 (also a gas can at times), while JT has a 3.67 against div foes. Yesterday both gams went over and I see a double digit game again this time with a cubs win hopefully. (in my Harray Caray voice-GO CUBS GO!)

***3rd Umpire Over is KC/Bos Over 9 with Brian Walsh who has 9.15 RP, a 2.5 SO/BB Ration resulting in 11-8 over. Last year also saw over 9 runs per game. His avg RI or run impact is 1.5, i had this game right at 9 without Walsh being named, i added his avg per game to get 10.5. The
over 7-4 last 11 Singer Starts and 7-3 last 10 for Bello Starts.

**4th Umpire Over is Clev/Tampa Over 7.5 with Mark Carlson, who like Hoye is also rated a HF ump but just fown the list at 4.28 with Jordan Baker. He's 9--9 Over on 8.5 rpg with a low 64% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio. Last yr was more typical for him-10 rpg, 63% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio with him coupled with the over is 4-1 last 5 starts for clev when Lively pitchers and rays are 7-3 last 10 Pepiot starts, the last game of this series should see more runs than the last 2.

EURO/COPA=20-12

Euro=Spain to lift trophy-135/Spain ML+155/Over 2.5 goals+155

Copa=Argentina ML+120/Over 2.5+170