apparently if you faded my top plays yest, you'd go 4-10, but 3-9 the night before. Funny how that works and the talks of fading, long term fading winners doesn't work. We always bounce back, let's get them today before the ASB. Lost several 1 run games and a handful of totals by a run, just didnt cut our way like the day before. First games of series, Fridays/Mondays can be a bit wacky, easier to figure out middle end of series, maybe that holds true again this Saturday.
1150-1029 YTD/ (572-519 Top plays) Umpire Overs=114-84 Umpire Under=10-7
All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.
️Pirates-139
️Twins-106
️Braves+117
️Reds-146
️Mets/Rockies Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
️Dodgers-115
️Royals+122
️Phils-1-132
️Seattle-136
️Cubs+116 (Game 1)
️Houston+106
️Mets-0.5-125 (F5)
️Cubs/Cards Over 8.5-120 (Game 1)--(Umpire Over)
️Toronto+112 (F5)--Tor worst pen in Majors, Berrios solid and has gone 5IP every gm since May)
Reds/Marlins Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over)
Cleveland+103
Brewers-124
Cubs TT Over -110 (Game 1)
Dodgers/Tigers Over 9-110 (Umpire Over)
Cardinals-126 (Game 2)
Bodymore Orioles-120 (F5)
Reds-135 (F5)
Seattle-0.5-105 (F5)
Twins/Giants Over 8-115
Houston/Texas Over 8-115
Mets-1.5-103 (Full game)
Toronto+125 (Full game)
Pirates/White Sox Over 8.5-115
Brewers/Nats UNDER 9-110 (Umpire UNDER)
***First Umpire Over is Mets/Rocks Over 8 with Bruce Drekman who has a whopping 12.24 run avg, and an incredible 14-3 Over record, on 2.4 SO/BB Walks and 64% strikes. 3 of the last 4 games btw these 2 hit the over, with both teams avg 10 runs btw the 2 per game and their opposition. I would expect both starters to give up a few runs each and the mets and rockies pens are ranked 23rd and 27th in BP ERA respectively.
***2nd Umpire OVER is Cubs/Cards Over 8.5 with Mike Muchlinski who is avg a whopping 11.18 runs, on a 64% strike call and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio, and is 9-8 over, while last year he was avg 10 runs, and had a 18-13 over. Lance Lynn has allowed 7 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts vs. CHC, and gave up 10 runs in his last start. I had this game just over 9 and with Mike behind the dish squeezing the gas can Lynn, I could see plenty of runs being coughed up.
***3rd Umpire Over is Reds/Marlins Over 8.5 with Derek Thomas who this and last year are avg 9.5 runs with a 10-6 Over this year, on a low 2.09 SO/BB Ratio and 62% strikes.
***4th Umpire Over is Dodgers/Tigers OVER 9 with Marvin Hudson who is avg over 9 runs, 10-5 OVER, on 64% strikes. Last 4 years have all hit just about 9 runs on 63-64% strikes and a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. I had this game between 9-10 runs, and with Hudson's near 1.5 run impact, I could see this going over as over last 2 weeks, LA is ranks 10th wRC+ (112) and 9th in wOBA (.3250 while Tigers are 9th (112), and 8th (.328). It will be near 90 and sticky/humid, with 2 rookie hurlers with LA's pitcher boasting an over 7 ERA and Montero over 4. Runs should be scored this game.
***1st Umpire UNDER is Brewers/Nats UNDER 9 with Ben May who avg just 7,9 runs on 64.5% strikes and a near 3 SO/BB Ratio. His games are 12-6 UNDER. His avg run impact is a paltry 0.9 (most umps are over 1-1.2). Dallas can be a gas can but he did pitch 6 scoreless gaainst the nats last time. 3 of the last 4 have gone under btw these 2 and only 25 runs were scored in 3 games last year in Milwaukee btw the 2. Nats only bat .190 and a .307 slug in 5 previous games in Milw, while Parker has pitched well at times this year with a 3.44 era, and allowed only 1 over 6 IP last start.
