March Madness Betting 2025🏀

[KingKolzig]

Yale o139 is nice. They play way faster than ppl would guess. Spread 7.5 decent chance of late fouling

Refs pushed this to 151

Sweet

 

[Wagerallsports]

Lack of March Madness upsets maddening for NCAA Tournament bettors​

Todd Dewey

March Madness is synonymous with upsets.

But backing underdogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament was maddening for bettors.

Favorites won 25 of 32 games while going 19-13 against the spread, including 10-6 on Friday. There were seven outright upsets, but no true bracket busters.

New Mexico pulled off the biggest of the three upsets Friday in a 75-66 win over Marquette as a 4½-point underdog.

McNeese State (+7) had the biggest upset of the first round Thursday in a win over Clemson.

Bettors were on the other side of those upsets and lost big Friday on popular underdog Grand Canyon (+9½), which was crushed 81-49 by Maryland.

“That was definitely our best game of the day,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “A lot of very respected money was on Grand Canyon. That’s why we closed that game 9½. It was a very trendy pick.

“You just don’t see that really anywhere else on the sports betting calendar, but it happens every year in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. There’s always a few of these trendy underdog teams that are high seeds getting a decent amount of points, and the players line up to back them. This year, at least, they haven’t been rewarded for that.”

Unders went 12-4 on Friday and 21-11 in the first round.

Bettors won on Baylor (+1, beat Mississippi State 75-72) but lost big on Ole Miss, which blew most of a 22-point second-half lead over North Carolina before holding on for a 71-64 victory as a 2-point underdog. The Rebels were getting points despite being a 6-seed.

“The best game for bettors was probably Baylor,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “We had a couple good ones, but Mississippi over North Carolina was probably the best one.”

Two-time defending champion UConn won and covered its 13th consecutive game in the tourney, beating Oklahoma 67-59 as a 5½-point favorite. The Huskies helped favorites finish 4-0 ATS Friday night, along with Michigan State (-17½, beat Bryant 87-62), Oregon (-7, beat Liberty 81-52) and Illinois (-4½, beat Xavier 86-73).

Mountain best

The Lobos and Colorado State earned some redemption for the Mountain West after San Diego State lost by 27 to North Carolina in the First Four and Utah State was whipped by 25 by UCLA in the first round.

The Rams became the second 12th seed to win when they beat Memphis 78-70. But don’t call it an upset. Colorado State closed as a 1-point favorite and dealt a blow to bettors who faded Mountain West teams Friday.

Sweet 32

The lack of upsets in the first round has set up some stellar second-round matchups.

“I’ve been criticized for saying this before, but I don’t really want too many Cinderellas going too deep in the tournament,” Murray said. “Having all these favorites win leads to really appealing matchups.”

For starters, St. John’s is favored by 7 over Arkansas in a matchup of national title-winning coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari, and Houston is favored by 5 over Gonzaga.

Sharp bettors at the South Point took BYU +1½ over Wisconsin in another game, causing the line to dip to 1.

Upsets or not, Andrews said March Madness matchups are always attractive.

“I say this every year. It doesn’t matter. There’s always good action and always intriguing matchups,” he said. “If it’s underdogs, usually the public gets enamored with them. If it’s more favorites, it’s teams they recognize more. It’s good either way.”

‘Very old school’

Andrews and Murray were both very pleased with the amount of action and overflow crowds at their books.

“We’re real happy with the crowds, the handle and everything else,” Andrews said. “We just try to do everything right to bring in the crowds, whether it’s free parking or a free party with great food and drink prices, or buffets or 3-to-2 blackjack.

“Everything we try to do at the South Point is very old school to bring in the players.”

Murray was thrilled that the betting handle, or amount of money wagered, was higher on Thursday and Friday than it was on the same days last year.

“I’m really happy to see we’re going to beat the handle numbers for both Thursday and Friday. That’s a really good sign for us. I want to see the volumes going in the right direction,” he said. “Taking -109 juice on all the (college and pro basketball) sides is a big part of it. It’s also something as simple as we’ve got some really good VIP players that are in the building this weekend.”

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heritage

NCAA Tournament Winner 2025

Duke+290
Florida+360
Auburn+550
Houston+650
Alabama+2000
Tennessee+2200
Texas Tech+2500
St. John's+2500
Michigan State+3000
Iowa State+3000
Gonzaga+3000
Maryland+4500
Arizona+4500
Kentucky+5900
Wisconsin+5900
Purdue+7400
Illinois+7400
BYU+7900
Texas A&M+8900
UCLA+9900
Mcneese State+9900
Drake+9900
Colorado State+9900
Baylor+9900
Connecticut+9900
Creighton+9900
Arkansas+9900
St. Mary's+9900
Oregon+9900
Michigan+9900
New Mexico+9900
Ole Miss Rebels+9900

 

[Wagerallsports]

Betonline

NCAA Tournament Winner 2025

 

[Wagerallsports]

Justbet

NCAAB MENS CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER 2025

Alabama+1852
Arizona+4471
Arkansas+30030
Auburn+460
Baylor+21521
BYU+9008
Colorado State+35036
Connecticut+8508
Creighton+15515
Drake+38540
Duke+275
Florida+320
Gonzaga+2853
Houston+550
Illinois+6950
Iowa State+2834
Kentucky+7507
Maryland+5505
McNeese State+60061
Michigan+9008
Michigan State+2702
Mississippi+13513
New Mexico+40698
Oregon+18518
Purdue+8508
Saint Marys CA+13013
St. Johns+1902
Tennessee+2002
Texas A&M+10009
Texas Tech+1990
UCLA+11511
Wisconsin+7507

 

[Tanko]

Lack of March Madness upsets maddening for NCAA Tournament bettors​

Todd Dewey

March Madness is synonymous with upsets.

But backing underdogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament was maddening for bettors.

Favorites won 25 of 32 games while going 19-13 against the spread, including 10-6 on Friday. There were seven outright upsets, but no true bracket busters.

New Mexico pulled off the biggest of the three upsets Friday in a 75-66 win over Marquette as a 4½-point underdog.

McNeese State (+7) had the biggest upset of the first round Thursday in a win over Clemson.

Bettors were on the other side of those upsets and lost big Friday on popular underdog Grand Canyon (+9½), which was crushed 81-49 by Maryland.

“That was definitely our best game of the day,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “A lot of very respected money was on Grand Canyon. That’s why we closed that game 9½. It was a very trendy pick.

“You just don’t see that really anywhere else on the sports betting calendar, but it happens every year in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. There’s always a few of these trendy underdog teams that are high seeds getting a decent amount of points, and the players line up to back them. This year, at least, they haven’t been rewarded for that.”

Unders went 12-4 on Friday and 21-11 in the first round.

Bettors won on Baylor (+1, beat Mississippi State 75-72) but lost big on Ole Miss, which blew most of a 22-point second-half lead over North Carolina before holding on for a 71-64 victory as a 2-point underdog. The Rebels were getting points despite being a 6-seed.

“The best game for bettors was probably Baylor,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “We had a couple good ones, but Mississippi over North Carolina was probably the best one.”

Two-time defending champion UConn won and covered its 13th consecutive game in the tourney, beating Oklahoma 67-59 as a 5½-point favorite. The Huskies helped favorites finish 4-0 ATS Friday night, along with Michigan State (-17½, beat Bryant 87-62), Oregon (-7, beat Liberty 81-52) and Illinois (-4½, beat Xavier 86-73).

Mountain best

The Lobos and Colorado State earned some redemption for the Mountain West after San Diego State lost by 27 to North Carolina in the First Four and Utah State was whipped by 25 by UCLA in the first round.

The Rams became the second 12th seed to win when they beat Memphis 78-70. But don’t call it an upset. Colorado State closed as a 1-point favorite and dealt a blow to bettors who faded Mountain West teams Friday.

Sweet 32

The lack of upsets in the first round has set up some stellar second-round matchups.

“I’ve been criticized for saying this before, but I don’t really want too many Cinderellas going too deep in the tournament,” Murray said. “Having all these favorites win leads to really appealing matchups.”

For starters, St. John’s is favored by 7 over Arkansas in a matchup of national title-winning coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari, and Houston is favored by 5 over Gonzaga.

Sharp bettors at the South Point took BYU +1½ over Wisconsin in another game, causing the line to dip to 1.

Upsets or not, Andrews said March Madness matchups are always attractive.

“I say this every year. It doesn’t matter. There’s always good action and always intriguing matchups,” he said. “If it’s underdogs, usually the public gets enamored with them. If it’s more favorites, it’s teams they recognize more. It’s good either way.”

‘Very old school’

Andrews and Murray were both very pleased with the amount of action and overflow crowds at their books.

“We’re real happy with the crowds, the handle and everything else,” Andrews said. “We just try to do everything right to bring in the crowds, whether it’s free parking or a free party with great food and drink prices, or buffets or 3-to-2 blackjack.

“Everything we try to do at the South Point is very old school to bring in the players.”

Murray was thrilled that the betting handle, or amount of money wagered, was higher on Thursday and Friday than it was on the same days last year.

“I’m really happy to see we’re going to beat the handle numbers for both Thursday and Friday. That’s a really good sign for us. I want to see the volumes going in the right direction,” he said. “Taking -109 juice on all the (college and pro basketball) sides is a big part of it. It’s also something as simple as we’ve got some really good VIP players that are in the building this weekend.”

Its funny, some call the tournament boring because there are only a few major upsets. You can tell they are not real fans of the sport. There has been some great basketball played and its always fun to watch.

 

[Wagerallsports]

ATS Records For 2025 NCAA Tournament Teams​

Team	2025 ATS Record	Cover Percentage
Robert Morris	26-8	.765
UC San Diego	25-8	.758
Florida	26-9	.743
Michigan State	23-10-1	.697
Omaha	23-10	.697
St. John's	22-11-2	.667
Duke	23-12	.657
Mount St. Mary's	22-12-1	.647
Liberty	20-11-1	.647
Wisconsin	23-13	.639
UNC Wilmington	21-12	.636
Troy	21-12	.636
Colorado State	22-13	.629
BYU	21-13	.618
Yale	17-11-1	.607
UCLA	19-13-1	.594
VCU	20-14	.588
Iowa State	20-14	.588
Clemson	20-14	.588
Montana	17-12-3	.586
Norfolk State	18-13-1	.581
SIU Edwardsville	18-13-1	.581
St. Francis (PA)	18-13	.581
Vanderbilt	19-14	.576
Louisville	20-15	.571
Texas A&M	17-13-3	.567
Drake	18-14	.563
Alabama	19-15	.559
Xavier	19-15	.559
Maryland	18-15-1	.545
Arizona	19-16	.543
Houston	19-16	.543
American	17-15-1	.531
Missouri	18-16	.529
Purdue	18-16	.529
Oklahoma	18-16	.529
Auburn	17-16-1	.515
Ole Miss	17-16-1	.515
High Point	17-16	.515
Georgia	17-16	.515
Tennessee	18-17	.514
Kentucky	17-17	.500
Texas Tech	17-17	.500
Illinois	17-17	.500
Wofford	17-17	.500
Lipscomb	16-16-1	.500
Michigan	17-18	.486
Oregon	16-17-1	.485
McNeese	16-17	.485
Akron	16-17	.485
Utah State	16-17	.485
New Mexico	16-17	.485
Texas	16-18-1	.471
Alabama State	16-18-1	.471
Memphis	16-19	.457
Arkansas	15-18-1	.455
UConn	15-18-1	.455
Bryant	15-18	.455
North Carolina	16-20-1	.444
Kansas	15-19	.441
Gonzaga	15-19	.441
Mississippi State	15-19	.441
Marquette	14-19-1	.424
Saint Mary's	14-19	.424
Baylor	13-18-2	.419
San Diego State	12-18	.400
Grand Canyon	13-20	.394

 

[KingKolzig]

Duke -12 wow

Team so solid

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heritage

Duke+270
Florida+350
Auburn+450
Houston+450
Tennessee+1600
Alabama+2000
Texas Tech+2200
Michigan State+3000
Iowa State+3000
Maryland+4000
Arizona+4900
Purdue+5900
BYU+5900
Illinois+6900
Kentucky+7400
Michigan+7400
Connecticut+7900
Arkansas+8900
Colorado State+9900
Baylor+9900
St. Mary's+9900
Oregon+9900
New Mexico+9900
Ole Miss Rebels+9900

 

[Wagerallsports]

Justbet

NCAAB MENS CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER2025

Alabama+1951
Arizona+5003
Arkansas+10945
Auburn+475
Baylor+20013
BYU+6939
Colorado State+45030
Connecticut+8005
Duke+255
Florida+300
Houston+485
Illinois+6004
Iowa State+3000
Kentucky+7953
Maryland+4653
Michigan+8005
Michigan State+3152
Mississippi+13646
New Mexico+40027
Oregon+13508
Purdue+7004
Saint Marys CA+15010
Tennessee+1651
Texas Tech+1994

 

[Wagerallsports]

Have All 4 No. 1 Seeds Ever Made the Final Four?​

Chase Kiddy
3/23/25

The 2008 NCAA Tournament is the only year when all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four.

Those No. 1 seeds were North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, and Kansas. The Jayhawks beat Memphis in overtime during the championship game, 75-68.

It’s common for the national champion to be a high seed; seven of the last 10 national championships have been seeded No. 1 in one of the four regions.

However, as any seasoned March Madness bracketologist can tell you, it’s not all that common for every No. 1 seed to advance, which is why it’s often wise to forecast a few reasonable upsets when the NCAA Tournament comes around each year.

 

[Wagerallsports]

March Madness buzzer-beater deals ‘one of the worst beats’ ever​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The first three days of the NCAA Tournament were virtually devoid of drama, with no buzzer-beaters.

That changed Sunday, when Derik Queen banked in a fadeaway jumper as time expired to send Maryland to the Sweet 16 with a 72-71 win over Colorado State.

Jalen Lake drained a 3-pointer over Queen with six seconds left to put the No. 12 seed Rams up 71-70 and in position to pull off the biggest upset of March Madness as 8-point underdogs. But Queen emerged as the hero for the No. 4 seed Terrapins, much to the delight of bettors with money-line parlays on favorites and much to the chagrin of sportsbooks.

“It would’ve been great to have Colorado State win the game outright,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “We just really haven’t had a big money-line ’dog win. Having someone beat a top-four seed would’ve been good.

“The whole tournament has been chalky, not against the number, but the top seeds moving on.

There was another buzzer-beater Sunday that didn’t decide the game or the point spread. But Liam McNeeley’s 3-pointer for UConn as time expired in the Huskies’ 77-75 loss to Florida gave over bettors a miracle cover and dealt under bettors a bad beat for the ages.

“That under is one of the worst beats I think I’ve ever seen,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said.

The total ranged from 150 to 151½, and the marquee matchup was on a big under pace at halftime, when the game was tied at 31-all. Under bettors were probably counting their winnings at the half, while over bettors needed a whopping 90 points in the second half to cash their tickets.

The under was still looking good down the stretch before the teams exploded for 18 points in the final minute, including 12 points — seven on free throws — in the final 11 seconds.

Thomas Haugh made two free throws to give Florida a 77-72 lead with five seconds left before McNeeley beat the buzzer with his otherwise meaningless 3-pointer, sending the crowd at the South Point sportsbook into a frenzy.

“The room was very happy when it went over,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.

UConn still streaking

The two-time defending national champion Huskies saw their 13-game NCAA Tournament winning streak end in the loss. But they extended their tournament cover streak to 14 games, cashing as 9-point underdogs.

“We really needed Florida or Maryland or Michigan State to lose, and we just couldn’t get any of them,” Murray said. “We couldn’t get a game to go our way (Sunday). But we’re not in much of a position to complain. We had very good results Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The pendulum swings back and forth.”

Michigan State (-6½) covered in a 71-63 victory over New Mexico.

Favorite things

Favorites won 11 of 16 games in the second round while going 7-9 against the spread and won 36 of 48 games in the first two rounds while going 26-22 ATS.

Overs went 9-6-1 in the second round after unders went 21-11 in the first round.

The top four seeds went 16-0 straight-up in the first round. But several were eliminated in the second round, including No. 2 St. John’s (-7, lost 75-66 to Arkansas); No. 3 Wisconsin (-1, lost 91-89 to BYU); No. 3 Iowa State (-5½, lost 91-78 to Ole Miss) and No. 4 Texas A&M (-3, lost 91-79 to Michigan).

All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, with Duke (-13, beat Baylor 89-66) and Auburn (-9, beat Creighton 82-70) covering and Florida and Houston (-5½, beat Gonzaga 81-76) failing to cover.

Duke is the +220 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win it all, followed by Florida at +380 and Houston and Auburn at 5-1.

Sweet 16

The Sweet 16 matchups and lines on Thursday are BYU-Alabama (-5), Arkansas-Texas Tech (-5½), Maryland-Florida (-6) and Arizona-Duke (-9½). Friday’s games are Michigan-Auburn (-8), Ole Miss-Michigan State (-3½), Purdue-Houston (-7½) and Kentucky-Tennessee (-4½).

The Westgate will offer -108 on sides starting Thursday in a reduced juice promotion.

“There are some really intriguing matchups,” Esposito said. “BYU is just a senior-laden team and can give any team in the country a tough time. I think we’ll see some BYU play there.

“Maryland comes off that win now and has to play Florida. Houston just looks so good to me. And Kentucky and Tennessee are playing for the third time this year.”

Kentucky swept the regular-season series with Tennessee.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heritage

Duke+220
Florida+350
Auburn+450
Houston+450
Alabama+1600
Tennessee+1600
Texas Tech+1800
Michigan State+2200
Maryland+3300
Kentucky+4000
Arizona+4000
Ole Miss Rebels+5000
Purdue+6600
BYU+6600
Michigan+6600
Arkansas+10000

 

[Wagerallsports]

Justbet

NCAAB MENS CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER2025

Alabama+1762
Arizona+4785
Arkansas+11755
Auburn+557
BYU+6924
Duke+206
Florida+301
Houston+502
Kentucky+6114
Maryland+3593
Michigan+6675
Michigan State+2506
Mississippi+7969
Purdue+8477
Tennessee+1706
Texas Tech+1977

 

[Wagerallsports]

Betonline

 

[Wagerallsports]

Men's March Madness 2025: Picking every Sweet 16 game​

ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL

And, breathe. Despite seeing few upsets or down-to-the-wire wins, it was quite the first weekend of men's NCAA tournament games.

For the first time in three years, we don't have a Cinderella team dancing into the Sweet 16. We also won't have back-to-back national champion UConn.

Instead, we have seven teams from the SEC (half of the conference's tourney-record 14 bids), four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and a single program from the ACC. All four 1-seeds remain in the chase for the title too.

We've analyzed how they each booked a spot in the regional semifinals. We ranked all 16 teams. Now, it's time to look at the actual matchups.

ESPN's Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf and Joe Lunardi (mostly) agree on who will win each Sweet 16 game. But why? And who will be key in each? Let's find out.

(2) Michigan State Spartans vs. (6) Ole Miss Rebels

Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS, Atlanta

Borzello's prediction: Michigan State 72-69
Medcalf's prediction: Michigan State 75-70
Lunardi's prediction: Michigan State 70-65

Why Michigan State will win: Over its first two NCAA tournament games, Ole Miss made nearly half of its 3-point attempts. Michigan State, the top 3-point defensive team in America, will try to prevent Ole Miss from continuing that form. Besides that, Tom Izzo's squad dominates on the offensive glass, and Spartans guard Jase Richardson will be the best player on the court. It all adds up to a Michigan State win. -- Myron Medcalf

Player to watch: Tre Holloman. He will overperform for the Spartans in this one. Holloman has gotten into a rhythm late in the season, recording double figures in four of Michigan State's past five games. The Spartans went 4-1 in that stretch. -- Medcalf

---

(1) Florida Gators vs. (4) Maryland Terrapins

Why Florida will win: Florida is a tough matchup. It's difficult to corral Walter Clayton Jr. and the Gators' other playmakers. Opponents get caught in switches off screens, because they have to do that to defend a team ranked second in adjusted offensive efficiency, where Florida shines. The Gators can score in bunches. But they also have the size -- four players in the rotation are 6-foot-9 or taller -- to handle Maryland's big men -- Derik Queen and Julian Reese -- around the rim. -- Medcalf

Player to watch: Alijah Martin. Todd Golden recruited Martin, one of the heroes of Florida Atlantic's 2023 Final Four run, for his talent and experience. And Martin has delivered for the Gators, averaging 15.6 point per game since the start of the SEC tournament. Look for another major effort from Martin in a Florida win. -- Medcalf

---

(1) Auburn Tigers vs. (5) Michigan Wolverines

Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS, Atlanta

Borzello's prediction: Auburn 82-77
Medcalf's prediction: Auburn 76-72
Lunardi's prediction: Auburn 80-70

Why Auburn will win: Michigan has won with a pair of 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin captaining Dusty May's offense. But Auburn, which boasts a top-75 defense, has four players -- including National Player of the Year contender Johni Broome -- with the length to pressure the opposing team's most important players. Broome will lean into his versatility as an excellent passer and playmaker to put pressure on Michigan's big bodies. And while the Wolverines' recent foes have done the same, giving Michigan's guards more openings on the perimeter, the Tigers' Tahaad Pettiford and his fellow guards won't let that happen. -- Medcalf

Player to watch: Chad Baker-Mazara. With Baker-Mazara, you never know what will happen. He can be the most carefree player on the court or a headache who draws technical fouls that hurt his Auburn team. What we do know: Michigan will struggle to defend him, which could be the difference. -- Medcalf

---

(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (10) Arkansas Razorbacks

Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, San Francisco

Borzello's prediction: Texas Tech 76-70
Medcalf's prediction: Texas Tech 79-72
Lunardi's prediction: Texas Tech 75-65

Why Texas Tech will win: This is a strong defensive group -- ranked in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency -- that also boasts the kind of offensive firepower that Arkansas' last opponent, St. John's, lacked. Texas Tech forward JT Toppin is averaging 22.6 PPG over the past 13 games; he has registered 30 or more points in three games during that stretch. The Red Raiders also have made 37% of their 3-point attempts in that period. John Calipari's Arkansas squad has hit its stride late, leading to an improbably Sweet 16 run in his first season with the program. But Texas Tech won't allow the Razorbacks to dominate around the rim the way Kansas and St. John's did. -- Medcalf

Player to watch: Boogie Fland. Nearly two months after he reportedly suffered a season-ending hand injury, the Arkansas standout returned to action in the NCAA tournament. However, while he logged 20-plus minutes in both first-weekend games, he was just 4-for-15 from the field and didn't look like the five-star recruit and NBA prospect he was touted as before his injury. Don't expect a major impact from him in the Sweet 16, either. -- Medcalf

---

(2) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (6) BYU Cougars

Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS, Newark

Borzello's prediction: BYU 94-92
Medcalf's prediction: BYU 96-93
Lunardi's prediction: Alabama 85-80

Why BYU will win: It's all about momentum. The Cougars have been one of the four best teams in college basketball over the past five weeks, ranking fourth nationally in adjusted efficiency margin and second in offense. They've lost just once in 12 games -- on a neutral court against Houston. Kevin Young has this team playing at an incredibly high level, and forward Richie Saunders has developed into a bona fide go-to guy, averaging 19.3 points and shooting 43.5% from 3 in his previous 11 games. Saunders put up 25 points against Wisconsin, which had no answer for him. Alabama is a different test, one with much more length and athleticism, but the Crimson Tide also can be vulnerable defensively. BYU just might be able to outscore the Tide if their 3s aren't falling. -- Jeff Borzello

Why Alabama will win: It's not like Alabama staggered to the finish line of the regular season. The Crimson Tide have lost three times in the past five weeks, but two of those defeats were to Florida, and the other came by a bucket at Tennessee. Along the way, they won at Auburn and put up the highest point total that Saint Mary's has allowed in more than three years. This Alabama team is loaded on the perimeter and especially around the rim, and it is guided by fifth-year guard Mark Sears, who gets himself and his bigs to the basket seemingly at will. Alabama has more weapons and deep, recent tournament experience that is hard to match. I like the Tide in the Sweet 16's best matchup, which also will be no low-scoring affair. -- Joe Lunardi

Player to watch: Egor Demin. The best NBA prospect on the floor on Thursday, Demin needs to play like it for BYU to upset Alabama. His size and vision enable him to pick apart defenses, especially if opponents give him time and space to operate in ball screens. His eight assists and one turnover against Wisconsin are Exhibit A. But Demin can struggle when pressured, like he did against Houston and Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. It will be interesting to see whom Nate Oats picks to guard him. -- Borzello

---

(2) Tennessee Volunteers vs. (3) Kentucky Wildcats

Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, Indianapolis

Borzello's prediction: Tennessee 73-69
Medcalf's prediction: Tennessee 79-77
Lunardi's prediction: Tennessee 72-71

Why Tennessee will win: Kentucky already has beaten Tennessee twice this season. But the Volunteers saw fantastic performances from their guards in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, with Chaz Lanier totaling 49 points in two games while shooting 10-for-18 from 3-point range and Zakai Zeigler averaging 13.5 points and 9.0 assists. Tennessee also had its best defensive performance in weeks against UCLA, limiting the Bruins to 58 points and 0.93 points per possession. Kentucky looked great in its pair of tourney wins, especially with Lamont Butler healthy. But Kentucky also went 12-for-24 from 3 in each previous meeting with the Vols; that lofty shooting efficiency could be hard to replicate a third time. -- Borzello

Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, San Francisco

Borzello's prediction: Florida 80-75
Medcalf's prediction: Florida 84-77
Lunardi's prediction: Florida 85-75

Player to watch: Chaz Lanier. He wasn't at his best in either prior game against Kentucky. Lanier was 3-for-10 from 3 in the first meeting and 0-for-7 in the second, averaging 12.5 points. In Tennessee's wins this season, Lanier is averaging 19.4 points and shooting 43.8% from 3; in losses, he is at 12.6 points and 27.5% from 3. -- Borzello

---

(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (4) Arizona Wildcats

Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS, Newark

Borzello's prediction: Duke 84-76
Medcalf's prediction: Duke 78-71
Lunardi's prediction: Duke 90-75

Why Duke will win: In terms of personnel, this should be one of the better battles of the round of 16. Both teams have three versatile, physical guards on the perimeter who can make shots and defend. Both squads have an interior anchor who can block shots and rebound. Both have a freshman matchup problem up front. The problem for Arizona, however, is that Duke's matchup problem is Cooper Flagg, the best player in college basketball. Arizona can sometimes have lapses defensively or be loose with the ball, like we saw late against Oregon. Unlike the Ducks, Duke will punish those mistakes. And if Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor continues to shoot the way he has over the past three games, Duke's No. 1 offense goes up another level. Arizona will have to play its best game and limit mistakes -- and it still might not be enough. -- Borzello

Player to watch: Caleb Love. It has to be Love, right? The North Carolina transfer has a long history against Duke, highlighted by his game-winning shot during the 2022 Final Four in the last game of Mike Krzyzewski's career. Arizona needs Love to be great. He was terrific against Oregon on Sunday with 29 points, but he has to avoid a repeat of the Sweet 16 loss to Clemson from last year, when he shot 0-for-9 from 3. -- Borzello

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(1) Houston Cougars vs. (4) Purdue Boilermakers

Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, Indianapolis

Borzello's prediction: Houston 69-62
Medcalf's prediction: Houston 78-71
Lunardi's prediction: Houston 71-69


Why Houston will win: Although Houston's offense is better than in previous years under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars' success still lies in defense. Theirs is the best in the country, according to most metrics. The Cougars' ability to pressure the ball and take a team out of what it wants to do offensively is second to none. That could be a concern for Boilermakers guard Braden Smith, who is a first-team All-American yet coughs up the ball too much at times, as evidenced by his eight turnovers against McNeese. Moreover, Houston ranks in the top five nationally in 2-point defense and block percentage, which could pose problems for Trey Kaufman-Renn. If Smith and Kaufman-Renn are not at their best, it's hard to see Purdue beating Houston. -- Borzello

Player to watch: J'Wan Roberts. With Cougars forward Roberts looking fully healthy following an ankle injury in the Big 12 tournament -- his 18 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists against Gonzaga seem to confirm this -- he should be able to produce against Purdue. The Boilermakers have one of the worst paint defenses in the country and rank last in the Big Ten in 2-point defense and block percentage, which should allow Roberts to operate effectively. -- Borzello