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Wagerallsports

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What are the worst bad beats in NCAA Tournament betting history?​

Todd Dewey

Bad beats are as much a part of March Madness as buzzer-beaters and bracket busters.

In 2023, Gonzaga bettors were dealt a brutal bad beat in the final game of the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Gonzaga, a 4½-point favorite over TCU, led 82-75 when Rondel Walker hit a 3-pointer with five seconds left to cut the Horned Frogs’ deficit to 82-78. For a moment, it appeared Bulldogs bettors were bailed out when Gonzaga’s Hunter Sallis was fouled with 0.7 seconds to go and hit both free throws for an 84-78 lead and apparent cover.

But it wasn’t over.

TCU rolled the inbounds pass up the court, and Damion Baugh waited for the ball to cross midcourt before he picked it up and drained a 3 at the buzzer to deal a bad beat for the ages to Zags backers in their 84-81 win — and a miraculous cover to Horned Frogs bettors.

The crowd at the game in Denver, where sports betting is legal, erupted, and so did the crowds at Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Here are five more of the worst bad beats in NCAA Tournament history:

5. Kansas 75, Memphis 68 (OT, national championship, 2008)

Memphis, a 2-point favorite, blew a 9-point lead with less than two minutes left in regulation as Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts missed four of five free throws down the stretch, giving Mario Chalmers a chance to hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 2.1 seconds left to force overtime.

4. N.C. State 80, Arkansas-Little Rock 66 (2OT, round of 32, 1986)

The No. 14-seeded Trojans knocked off No. 3 seed Notre Dame in the opening round and were on the verge of pulling off another upset in the second round as 8½-point underdogs to N.C. State. Little Rock led by five in overtime before the Wolfpack rallied to force a second overtime, where they reeled off a 14-0 run to not only extinguish any hopes of an outright upset, but to torch all tickets on the underdogs.

3. Boston College 88, Pacific 76, 2OT (first round, 2006)

Pacific, an 8-point underdog, tied the game on a 3-pointer in the final seconds of regulation to send the game to overtime, where it blew a 6-point lead. The Eagles then outscored the Tigers 14-2 in the second overtime to cover.

2. Duke 63, Utah 57 (Sweet 16, 2015)

Duke backers will recall this as a miracle cover, but it was a brutal bad beat for Utes bettors, who were looking at either a win at +5½ or a push at +5 when the scoreboard showed a 62-57 final and the players started walking off the court. But officials then ruled a foul had occurred with 0.7 seconds left when Utah’s Brandon Taylor inexplicably fouled Quinn Cook as he tried to dribble out the clock after grabbing a rebound. Cook missed the first free throw, then made the second to cash all Blue Devils tickets.

1. UConn 79, Duke 78 (Final Four, 2004)

In arguably the most infamous bad beat in March Madness history, Duke’s Chris Duhon banked in an otherwise meaningless running 38-foot 3-pointer at the buzzer to crush bettors who backed UConn as a favorite of between 1½ and 2½ points.

The Huskies went on a late 11-0 run to go ahead 78-75 with 3.2 seconds left and UConn center Emeka Okafor at the line with a chance to seal the cover. He missed the first free throw and hit the second to ensure the win but not the cover.

Duhon then took the inbounds pass and raced across half-court before driving a dagger through the hearts of UConn bettors.

CBS announcer Jim Nantz said after Duhon’s shot that “it doesn’t matter.” He could not have been more wrong.
 

Wagerallsports

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Justbet

NCAAB MENS CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER2025

Akron+150889
Alabama+1605
Alabama State+452799
American+352013
Arizona+5485
Arkansas+38717
Auburn+510
Baylor+23126
Bryant+165985
BYU+10054
Clemson+6730
Colorado State+30167
Connecticut+8543
Creighton+18098
Drake+45254
Duke+290
Florida+316
Georgia+34189
Gonzaga+4014
Grand Canyon+70402
High Point+150889
Houston+641
Illinois+6332
Iowa State+3166
Kansas+8474
Kentucky+6030
Liberty+125749
Lipscomb+201148
Louisville+12064
Marquette+17596
Maryland+4796
McNeese State+115387
Memphis+18601
Michigan+10027
Michigan State+2492
Mississippi+13071
Mississippi State+22625
Missouri+8541
Montana+251536
Mt. St. Mary's+503425
NC Wilmington+251536
Nebraska Omaha+276678
New Mexico+30167
Norfolk State+352013
North Carolina+26382
Oklahoma+67886
Oregon+17093
Purdue+11018
Robert Morris+301832
Saint Marys CA+13006
San Diego State+65204
SIU Edwardsville+301832
St. Francis PA+654350
St. Johns+1896
Tennessee+2176
Texas+60341
Texas A&M+8546
Texas Tech+2851
Troy+251536
UC San Diego+45219
UCLA+12984
Utah State+55314
VA Commonwealth+30167
Vanderbilt+35196
Wisconsin+5328
Wofford+165985
Xavier+43441
Yale+120702
 

Wagerallsports

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March Madness best bets: Handicappers try to pick 70% winners again​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

Pro handicappers Paul Stone and Bruce Marshall each went 12-5 against the spread (70.6 percent) and hit both of their best bets last season in the Review-Journal March Madness

Stone won the NCAA Tournament contest on a national champion tiebreaker after correctly predicting UConn would win it all. Stone and Marshall are picking Florida to cut down the nets April 7 in San Antonio.

The Virginia Commonwealth-BYU under 147 is Stone’s best bet in the contest, but he’s equally high on Oregon (-7) over Liberty.

For many March Madness bettors, taking a No. 12 seed over a 5 is one of the opening round’s most popular wagers. But Stone likes the No. 5 Ducks to douse the No. 12 Flames by double digits in Friday’s late game in Seattle.

The game is scheduled to begin at 7:10 p.m. Pacific. In Lynchburg, Virginia, where Liberty is located, the game will start after 10 p.m. Eastern.

“I think it’s problematic for Liberty that the game is scheduled to tip off at 10:10 p.m. Eastern,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “It’s a difficult body clock game for the Flames.

“Plus I think Liberty will have difficulty matching up with Oregon’s 7-foot senior center Nate Bittle. They don’t face many guys with Bittle’s size and skill set in Conference USA.”

Marshall, a CBS Sportsline handicapper who won the RJ’s College Football Challenge last season (44-24-2 ATS, 64.7 percent), made Creighton (+2½) over Louisville his best bet in the contest. But he also likes Gonzaga (-6) over Georgia.

The Zags, who beat Saint Mary’s 58-51 in the West Coast Conference tournament title game, feature five players who average more than 10 points per game: Graham Ike (17.1), Khalif Battle (13.2), Nolan Hickman (11.0), Braden Huff (10.8) and Ryan Nembhard (10.8).

“Gonzaga is seeded too low at 8. Their win over Saint Mary’s in the WCC was a great-coached game by Mark Few, even though nobody hit 3s,” Marshall said. “Moving (the 6-foot-10-inch) Huff into the lineup alongside (6-9) Ike gives the Zags real size and will be a real problem for some teams.

“Khalif Battle has come on in the past month. Hickman and Battle make more plays than Nembhard, and Few now realizes that. They can beat Georgia and could be a very scary matchup for Houston in the second round.”

Systemplays.com handicapper Doug Fitz likes SIU Edwardsville (+29½) to cover the biggest number on the board against Houston.

“This game has the lowest total on the NCAA first-round board (at 126½), which should indicate an expected low-scoring game, giving the big ’dog a decent chance to cover,” Fitz said. “Houston can name the score, but they should have no concern on covering this huge number.”

UConn still streaking

Two-time defending national champion UConn has won and covered 12 straight games in the tournament. Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw is banking on the Huskies to extend that streak to 13.

Whitelaw placed 11 bets on the first round, including UConn (-4½) over Oklahoma, Grand Canyon (+10½) over Maryland and Montana (+17½) over Wisconsin.

“I like Grand Canyon a lot, I like Connecticut a lot — that’s my only favorite — and I like Montana a lot,” he said. “It just boils down to making the numbers different. The way I make the numbers, they tend to favor underdogs, and I like to favor some of these smaller schools a lot of people don’t know about.

“You’ll see a lot of these smaller schools are pretty good.”

Here are Whitelaw’s other eight plays: Utah State (+5½), Drake (+6½), Yale (+7½), Bryant (+17½), Vanderbilt (+4½), Robert Morris (+23½), Liberty (+7½) and Akron (+14½).

Not under until it’s over

South Point studio host Alex White, who won Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing college football contest in 2022, made the Vanderbilt-Saint Mary’s under 136½ her best bet in the RJ Challenge.

“Saint Mary’s is a top-10 defense in the country, and they can shut down just about anyone. They play at the sixth-slowest pace, just behind Houston,” White (@alexwhitee) said. “Vanderbilt’s pace slowed down in conference play. (Commodores coach) Mark Byington is a great teacher of defense, and his team improved throughout the year against the best conference in the country.

“Neither team is turnover-prone, leading to fewer fast breaks for either side.”
 

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Gators, once 80-1, would take bite out of books with NCAA title win​

Todd Dewey

Florida was an 80-1 long shot at the Westgate SuperBook in late November to win the NCAA Tournament.

The Gators dipped to 60-1 in December and were still available at 40-1 in early February before becoming one of the favorites to win it all during a hot streak that has seen them win and cover 12 of their past 13 games, including their last six.

Florida is now the +350 co-favorite with Duke and one of the biggest liabilities at Las Vegas sportsbooks to cut down the nets April 7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

“It’s just crazy how fast this stuff moves,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Right now, most people, when they do a bracket on TV, they would pick Florida to win. With Cooper Flagg being hurt, there are some question marks about Duke.”

A BetMGM bettor wagered $100,000 to win $900,000 on Florida to win the national championship at 9-1 odds.

Duke, which opened at 11-1 at BetMGM to win its first national title since 2015, also is one of the biggest liabilities at books.

“At the very top of the market, we don’t do well to (coach) Jon Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils,” Caesars Sportsbook college basketball lead Rich Zanco said.

Flagg, a freshman phenom considered one of college basketball’s best players, missed the past two games for the Blue Devils after suffering an ankle injury in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. Scheyer said the goal is for Flagg to play in Duke’s first-round game Friday against the winner of the First Four matchup between American and Mount Saint Mary’s.

“Cooper Flagg’s health is a question mark, but we expect action to pour in on Duke if Flagg can play,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “Along with Duke, Florida and Michigan State are teams we don’t want to cut down the nets.”

The Spartans, who were as high as 60-1, are now tied with Saint John’s as the 25-1 seventh choice to win it all.

St. John’s odds slashed

A BetMGM bettor wagered $2,000 to win $100,000 on St. John’s at 50-1 after it opened at 80-1.

The Red Storm, coached by Rick Pitino, are one of the biggest liabilities at the South Point and a loser for the Westgate, which took a $1,000 wager to win $50,000 (50-1) and two $600 bets to win $36,000 each (60-1) in October on St. John’s.

But Salmons isn’t too concerned.

“I don’t believe they’re good enough to beat the really good teams,” he said. “It was one of the worst years the Big East has had in a long time.”

Georgia is a six-figure loser at the Westgate, where it’s 500-1, and one of the largest liabilities at Caesars, which took a $1,000 wager to win $750,000 on March 4 on the Bulldogs at 750-1.

UC San Diego, a 2½-point underdog to Michigan in the first round, is one of the biggest liabilities at the Westgate, which took a $100 wager to win $500,000 on the Tritons in February at 5,000-1. Caesars took a $300 bet to win $300,000 on UC San Diego on Jan. 31 in Nevada at 1,000-1.

Top-heavy tournament’

Notable bets at Caesars on favorites include a $10,000 wager to win $220,000 on Houston that was placed in June at 22-1. The Cougars are now the 7-1 fourth choice at the book.

Caesars also took a $30,000 wager to win $105,000 on Auburn on March 3 in Nevada at +350. The Tigers, who opened at 30-1 at BetMGM, are now the +450 third pick at Caesars.

Salmons expects one of the top-seeded teams to win the title.

“It’s probably the most top-heavy tournament I’ve seen in a long time,” he said. “The 1s and 2s are really good.”
 

Wagerallsports

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March Madness Public Betting & Money Percentages Today​

Nick Hennion Mar 19, 2025


  • Public bettors predict Duke (+360) wins the National Championship.
  • Florida (+350) owns the largest gap between bets and money percentage.
  • Bettors predict Mount St. Mary's and Xavier cover the spread on Wednesday night.
Below, college basketball bettors can find NCAAB public betting data and money percentages for Wednesday’s games and the national championship futures market.

The title odds suggest a four-horse race for the championship. Florida (+350) leads the way on the board and is closely followed by Duke (+360). After that pair, Auburn (+400) and Houston (+600) round out the short shots.

Only two other teams — Alabama (+1600) and Tennessee (+1800) — sit at +2000 or shorter to win the 2025 national title.

With that established, let’s dive into the report based on college basketball odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

NCAAB Public Betting​

First Four: Wednesday, March 19​

Based on public betting data for Wednesday, Mount St. Mary’s (+2.5) and Xavier (-3.5) are predicted to cover the spread.
The matchup featuring Mount St. Mary’s and American produced some interesting betting splits.

Mount St. Mary’s opened as a 1.5-point underdog in the matchup. As of Wednesday morning, they’ve accumulated 52% of bets placed and 53% of money wagered to cover the spread.

The dogs have simultaneously garnered 69% of all moneyline wagers. Despite those percentages, they’ve moved from +1.5 to +2.5 and from +110 to +118 on the moneyline.

Potentially contributing to that movement is the fact American has received 67% of all money wagered to win outright on Wednesday.

In Xavier vs. Texas, bettors are backing the Musketeers to cover the spread and Texas on the moneyline.
From an ATS standpoint, Xavier amassed 55% of bets placed and 76% of money wagered to cover the spread. Accordingly, they’ve moved from -1.5 at market open to -3.5.

Moneyline wagers favor the Longhorns, though. Texas has received 74% of bets placed and 61% of money wagered to win outright.

MatchupBets% (ATS)Money% (ATS)
American (-2.5) vs. Mount St. Mary'sMount St. Mary's 52%Mount St. Mary's 53%
Xavier (-3.5) vs. TexasXavier 55%Xavier 76%

Round of 64: Thursday, March 20​

GameBets% (ATS)Money% (ATS)
Louisville (-2.5) vs. CreightonLouisville 62%Louisville 78%
Purdue (-7.5) vs. High PointHigh Point 82%High Point 88%
Wisconsin (-17.5) vs. MontanaMontana 64%Montana 62%
Houston (-29.5) vs. SIU EdwardsvilleHouston 51%Houston 61%
Auburn (-31.5) vs. Alabama StateAlabama State 66%Auburn 61%
Clemson (-7.5) vs. McNeeseMcNeese 62%McNeese 61%
BYU (-2.5) vs. VCUVCU 65%VCU 66%
Gonzaga (-6.5) vs. GeorgiaGonzaga 62%Gonzaga 78%
Tennessee (-18.5) vs. WoffordTennessee 67%Tennessee 77%
Kansas (-4.5) vs. ArkansasArkansas 82%Arkansas 75%
Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. YaleYale 82%Yale 76%
Missouri (-6.5) vs. DrakeDrake 85%Drake 79%
UCLA (-5.5) vs. Utah StateUtah State 71%Utah State 70%
St. John's (-18.5) vs. OmahaSt. John's 69%St. John's 95%
Michigan (-2.5) vs. UCSDMichigan 65%Michigan 66%
Texas Tech (-15.5) vs. UNC WilmingtonUNC Wilmington 56%UNC Wilmington 64%

National Championship Winner​

Based on public betting data from BetMGM, Duke (+360) is predicted to win this year’s national championship.

The Blue Devils opened at +1100 to win the title and secured a number one seed on Selection Sunday. As of Monday, March 17, Duke attracted 13.5% of bets placed and 23% of money wagered to win the title.
Both figures lead the field. Additionally, the Blue Devils are the only team receiving at least 10% of bets placed.

But Duke doesn’t qualify as the only team receiving a high money wagered percentage. That also applies to Florida (+350), which has received 15.4% of money wagered on only 6.4% of bets placed.
That comes after the Gators opened at +4000 to win the national title.

The two other short shots — Auburn (+400) and Houston (+600) — received smaller levels of betting interest.

Auburn captured 7% of bets placed and 8.2% of money wagered to win the NCAA Tournament while Houston garnered 6% of bets and 8.1% of money.

Below, bettors can find the 10 most bet teams to win the title by bet percentage:
  • Duke (+360): 13.5% of bets placed
  • Auburn (+400): 7% of bets placed
  • Michigan State (+2200): 6.9% of bets placed
  • Florida (+350): 6.4% of bets placed
  • Houston (+600): 6% of bets placed
  • Alabama (+1600): 5.7% of bets placed
  • St. John’s (+2200): 5% of bets placed
  • Tennessee (+1800): 4.4% of bets placed
  • Kansas (+6000): 4% of bets placed
  • Iowa State (+3000): 3.4% of bets placed
 
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