NCAA Tournament best bets: Sides, totals that stand out in Final Four
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Alex White won Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing college football contest in 2022 and hit 64 percent of her plays last season in the Review-Journal College Challenge, finishing 44-25-1 against the spread.
It turns out she’s pretty good at picking college basketball winners, too. White, a South Point studio host who helped sportsbook director Chris Andrews make the opening lines for the NCAA Tournament, went 12-5 ATS, including 5-0 in the Sweet 16, and hit both of her best bets to win the RJ March Madness Challenge.
White, whose father, Kenny White, aka the “Wizard of Odds,” used to run Las Vegas Sports Consultants, learned from her dad how to create power ratings for teams.
“My betting strategy is 75 percent power ratings and 25 percent research,” said Alex White (@alexwhitee), 36, a former UNLV cheerleader and current on-field emcee for the Aviators. “Each team begins the season with a power rating, based on individual player power ratings. I use these power ratings to make my own betting line and look for differences of three to five points from the books’ number to mine. If my numbers are the same or close to the books’, I just pass.
“The other (25 percent) is the motivation, coaching edge, scheduling, look-aheads, letdowns, revenge, et cetera. I use this part of the equation to support a potential bet based off my power ratings and/or to keep me off a bet. The power ratings are constantly adjusted throughout the season based off performance and outcome.”
White’s best bet in Saturday’s Final Four is on the Houston-Duke under 136.
“The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country and they slow games down to a crawl. They are consistent and great at it,” she said. “Duke is the top offense in the country but also fantastic on the defensive end.”
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone, who went 10-7 in the RJ Challenge, also made the Houston-Duke under his best bet.
Houston ranks 360th in adjusted tempo on KenPom and No. 1 in defensive efficiency. The Cougars also lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 58.3 points per game. Duke is seventh, giving up 62.6 points per game.
“One could argue that Houston’s Kelvin Sampson is the best coach in college basketball today,” said Stone (@Paulstonesports). “I’m sure he realizes the Cougars’ best path to victory is slowing the pace and shortening the game. They need to drag the Blue Devils into the mud, so to speak.
“I don’t think either team gets out of the 60s in this one.”
Florida-Auburn
We have conflicting best bets on the Florida-Auburn national semifinal.
Pro handicappers Bruce Marshall and Doug Fitz, who tied for second in the RJ Challenge, made Florida their best bet. Veteran Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons likes Auburn.
Marshall took the Gators -2½, while Fitz likes them on the money line (-150) after they erased a late nine-point deficit to Texas Tech in their Elite Eight matchup.
“I picked Florida pre-tournament to win it all and I’m certainly not changing now,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “This shapes up to be a very close game that could be decided by a point or two, so I’ll lay the money line on Florida rather than laying the points.”
Said Marshall: “I became sold on the Gators when they won handily at Auburn in February. No fluke. They controlled that game when Auburn was flying at its absolute highest this season.”
Value bet
Salmons said bettors are getting a bargain on Auburn because it was favored by 10½ over Florida on Feb. 8 in a 90-81 home loss.
“From being a 10½-point favorite in that game and now they’re playing on a neutral court and they’re getting 2½, and perhaps even a 3 come Saturday, I think Auburn offers a ton of value,” Salmons said. “I really like Auburn in that game. I think they have a lot to prove. This Florida team’s trying to lose. They should’ve lost to (Texas) Tech. UConn had a reasonable chance to beat them. And I think Auburn’s going to put them out of their misery.
“Sports betting is all about betting things that you perceive are off from reality. The reality is the public loves Florida. They know which way the people want to bet and that’s why the line is situated this way. I think you’re going to get a very motivated, hungry Auburn team that’s played really well in the tournament and, for whatever reason, they don’t get any credit for it.”
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