JR's Plays of the Day thread

[Jrgum3]

Tough pill to swallow going 1-3 but thems the breaks sometimes. All three losses looked good for a while there but in the end they all lost with Stanford being my only winner of the night and an easy one at that. I think that Miami is an auto fade now that coach Larranaga stepped down. It seems they may have quit but I think the books are going to start tempting us to bet them by giving them more than just 10 points when they go on the road. On to Thursday where we have more NBA and college plays to dive into.

Overall record: 329-344-11 -40.86u
MLB: 109-95-4 +9.69u
WNBA: 17-28-2 -13.25u
NHL23-24: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 43-42-1 -2.13u
NFL: 47-70-1 -28.38u
NHL24-25: 11-5-1 +7.41u
NBA24-25: 61-59 -7.80u
NCAAB24-25: 44-42-3 -2.11u
NFL Playoffs: 7-4-1 +2.73u

 

[BMR Genie]

You will get it today, Jr.

 

[Jrgum3]

1/23/24

NCAAB
Wichita State +13 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Illinois -7.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u

NBA
Denver Nuggets -8.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Boston/LA Lakers o218.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u

 

[Jrgum3]

2-2 night Thursday as I go 1-1 in both college hoops and NBA. Memphis continues to struggle as double digit favorites under Penny Hardaway who wins these games but rarely covers for whatever reason. Illinois was terrible tonight but I don't think it's indicative of how good they are like I said in another thread.

In the NBA the Denver line was sharp as they beat Sacramento by 9 to cover by the hook. In hindsight I probably shouldn't have played the Boston/LA game because it turned out to be a blowout since I think Boston was content to split their LA road trip after beating the Clippers on Wednesday night in overtime which probably took a lot out of them.

Overall record: 331-346-11 -41.04u
MLB: 109-95-4 +9.69u
WNBA: 17-28-2 -13.25u
NHL23-24: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 43-42-1 -2.13u
NFL: 47-70-1 -28.38u
NHL24-25: 11-5-1 +7.41u
NBA24-25: 62-60 -7.90u
NCAAB24-25: 45-43-3 -2.19u
NFL Playoffs: 7-4-1 +2.73u

 

[Wagerallsports]

Friday night get the weekend rolling jr

 

[Jrgum3]

Friday night get the weekend rolling jr

Not too much to choose from today but I'll try to find some winners. Definitely going to have more plays tomorrow including probably my NFL plays which I'll lock in tomorrow probably with analysis to come so stay tuned.

 

[Jrgum3]

1/24/25

NCAAB
Villanova +9.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Purdue -3.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u

NBA
Portland/Charlotte u221.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Cleveland -10.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u

Very light card tonight but I have several plays that I I like. First up in college hoops tonight I like Villanova to stay within the number against Marquette. Marquette is clearly the more talented team but I think Villanova will keep this close even on the road because they are able to take care of the ball and I think they match up well with Marquette inside so I think they'll be able to score enough to keep this close.

My second college hoops play is on Purdue to cover the short number tonight against Michigan. Purdue is coming off a tough loss to Ohio State so I think they're going to bounce back at home tonight. Michigan is good but they still have a big problem with turning over the ball and I think Purdue will make them pay for that and end up winning this game because they very rarely lose two in a row at home under Matt Painter.

In the NBA tonight it's a very ugly card but I took the under in the Portland game because Portland is on the second night of a back to back on the road so I think they'll be a little tired and Charlotte is going through the motions these days so I think this will be a very ugly defensive slugfest where the under makes the most sense betting wise.

My last play is laying is with Cleveland tonight despite the fact they're laying doubles on the road against Philly. Philly is really tanking at this point to me since they continue to be without Joel Embiid and even if they had him tonight I still think they'd get boat raced by Cleveland who continues to be a wagon this year in the East. I think Cleveland names their score here so I'm laying double digits tonight with the best team in the East.

 

[Tanko]

My second college hoops play is on Purdue to cover the short number tonight against Michigan. Purdue is coming off a tough loss to Ohio State so I think they're going to bounce back at home tonight. Michigan is good but they still have a big problem with turning over the ball and I think Purdue will make them pay for that and end up winning this game because they very rarely lose two in a row at home under Matt Painter.

The last part is the key.

The last time they lost two at home in succession was in 2020 when they had a 4 game losing streak. The losses sandwiched around two road losses (see below). Prior to that, you have to go back to 2014.

Penn St. L, 88-76 Home
Ohio St. L, 68-52 Away
Wisconsin L, 69-65 Away
Michigan L, 71-63 Home

 

[Jrgum3]

The last part is the key.

The last time they lost two at home in succession was in 2020 when they had a 4 game losing streak. The losses sandwiched around two road losses (see below). Prior to that, you have to go back to 2014.

Penn St. L, 88-76 Home
Ohio St. L, 68-52 Away
Wisconsin L, 69-65 Away
Michigan L, 71-63 Home

Yeah I can't see them dropping this game tonight just because they know they should have won that last game and they didn't so I see them coming out with a better effort tonight which is my primary reason for laying the points although you're right its notable that they haven't lost two in a row at home in five years.

 

[Jrgum3]

Another 2-2 night last night as Purdue blew out Michigan and Portland/Charlotte didn't even come close to going over. Unfortunately Cleveland lost outright and Villanova couldn't quite cover the spread so I have to settle for finishing a little down on the day despite going .500 for the day.

Overall record: 333-348-11 -41.20u
MLB: 109-95-4 +9.69u
WNBA: 17-28-2 -13.25u
NHL23-24: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 43-42-1 -2.13u
NFL: 47-70-1 -28.38u
NHL24-25: 11-5-1 +7.41u
NBA24-25: 63-61 -7.98u
NCAAB24-25: 46-44-3 -2.27u
NFL Playoffs: 7-4-1 +2.73u

 

[Tanko]

You really pegged that Purdue game correctly.

 

[Jrgum3]

1/25/25

NCAAB
Kansas +1 -114 1.14u to win 1u

Just this play for now but i might be back later with more on this huge Saturday card. I like Kansas at home to get the job done against a good Houston team that really hasn't been tested and now must go on the road and play a team that rarely loses at home. Give me Kansas here to pull off the upset.

 

[Jrgum3]

1/25/25

NCAAB
Auburn -6.5 -108 1.08u to win 1u

NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers -4 -108 1.08u to win 1u

Ok so I'm rounding out my card with one more NCAAB play and a single play in the NBA on a gigantic 14 game slate in the association today. First up I like Auburn to win tonight against Tennessee and also cover the number. The big question is whether Johni Broome plays tonight or not but I don't think it matters because Auburn is a very deep team and they've been playing well without their star. Tennessee sometimes struggles on the road in conference play with their offense especially from the perimeter so I think Auburn will be able to shut them down and get points on the other end enough to cover here.

In the NBA I like Cleveland tonight to end their mini losing streak. They haven't lost three in a row all year long plus this matchup is against Houston who beat them a couple games ago in Houston so Cleveland will be motivated to bounce back here and get the win at home. It's a short number so I'm laying it here with the Cavs who arguably are the best team in the NBA.

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL tonight jr

 

[Jrgum3]

1/26/25

NFL Conference Championship Picks:
2 team 6 pt teaser: Washington +12, Buffalo +8 -120 1.2u to win 1u
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown +110 1u to win 1.10u
Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown +130 1u to win 1.30u
Jalen Hurts o31.5 rushing yards -121 1.21u to win 1u
Terry McLaurin o64.5 receiving yards -114 1.14u to win 1u
Travis Kelce o6.5 receptions -108 1.08u to win 1u
James Cook o57.5 rushing yards -124 1.24u to win 1u

All right we have two good games tomorrow and I have a bunch of plays on my card for these two conference championship games. First I just simply put Washington and Buffalo into a 6 point two team teaser because honestly I think these games are close and getting both underdogs over a touchdown seems like the way to play it to me because I don't see two blowouts by the favorites.

In the KC/Buffalo game I'm once again playing Travis Kelce to score a touchdown and since I put my bets in today the best I could get was +110. That's fine with me because I'm getting plus money to back a guy who just scores in the playoffs and I feel like will score again tomorrow. I also like him to go over 6.5 receptions because he's Mahomes guy and Mahomes will feed his security blanket especially on third down so I think Kelce goes over his receptions prop tomorrow.

The one Bill I like in this game is James Cook because I think Buffalo will look to establish the running game against the Chiefs to keep Mahomes and Kelce parked on the sideline where they can't beat you. So I believe Cook will eclipse 57 rushing yards tomorrow especially since the Chiefs will be worried about stopping Josh Allen.

In the first game between Washington and Philly I'm backing Terry McLaurin to have a huge game for Washington. I think he finds the end zone and since I'm getting +130 I took that because I think in this game he's going to have to be huge for Washington to be able to stay with Philly. That's also why I think he goes over his receiving yardage prop because Jayden Daniels knows he's going to have to find him in order to pull off this upset so McLaurin should be heard from early and often tomorrow.

As for the Eagles I think Jalen Hurts will run the ball tomorrow. I know he's banged up and you would think he'd looking to protect himself but I believe he will run because the Super Bowl is on the line and he adds another dimension to the Philly attack which is tough to slow down because of Saquon Barkley. With Washington keying in on Barkley I think there will be enough room for Hurts to rush for more than 31 yards tomorrow.

 

[Tanko]

Thanks for the plays and tremendous write up JRgum.

 

[Jrgum3]

0-3 yesterday with tough losses in college hoops and the NBA just completely not going my way. I'll try to bounce back with my NFL card but we'll see since I have a lot of plays today. I will take a day off from betting NBA and College hoops so hopefully NFL goes well for me today.

Overall record: 333-351-11 -44.50u
MLB: 109-95-4 +9.69u
WNBA: 17-28-2 -13.25u
NHL23-24: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 43-42-1 -2.13u
NFL: 47-70-1 -28.38u
NHL24-25: 11-5-1 +7.41u
NBA24-25: 63-62 -9.06u
NCAAB24-25: 46-46-3 -4.49u
NFL Playoffs: 7-4-1 +2.73u

 

[Jrgum3]

Thanks for the plays and tremendous write up JRgum.

No worries I enjoy doing it now hopefully we find some winners for NFL Sunday.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Finish this week off with some winners jr

 

[Jrgum3]

Well those were two good games but the only winners for me today was McLaurin Anytime Touchdown at +130 and James Cook o57.5 rushing yards. I thought I had the right angle with the teaser but Washington couldn't hang with Philly so that was a loser. Travis Kelce was actually quiet in the Chiefs victory which was surprising because Buffalo's defense against the Tight End isn't the greatest but it was the other receivers plus Patty Mahomes with his legs that beat the Bills defense.

We'll see what happens in the Super Bowl but I think KC is rightfully favored over Philadelphia in a coin flip game. Hopefully the props go my way in that game because I think I'm going to attack the prop market again plus I will have a play on either the side or the total that I'll decide on closer to game time.

Overall record: 335-356-11 -47.83u
MLB: 109-95-4 +9.69u
WNBA: 17-28-2 -13.25u
NHL23-24: 1-2 -1.42u
UFC: 5-7 -0.50u
OLYMBB: 4-7 -3.76u
NCAAF: 43-42-1 -2.13u
NFL: 49-75-1 -31.71u
NHL24-25: 11-5-1 +7.41u
NBA24-25: 63-62 -9.06u
NCAAB24-25: 46-46-3 -4.49u
NFL Playoffs: 9-9-1 -0.60u