Can anyone win longterm WITHOUT using numbers?

[rip007]

You have to Know Your Markets, that's for sure.

Yeah, also worth looking at books that 'seldom' move like William Hill, and Bodog, especially late,
Spread betting 1st half is a little easier in a tough sport, but the odds board is 'very active' with so many games

 

[pete0]

Yeah, also worth looking at books that 'seldom' move like William Hill, and Bodog, especially late,
Spread betting 1st half is a little easier in a tough sport, but the odds board is 'very active' with so many games

Knowing the markets, should be STICKIED in this forum

@KVB

 

[danielesp]

A couple of times I’ve read that only 1-2% of sports bettors win long term. Is it true that the only way to win long term is by using numbers such as models, systems, stats, etc?

Ultimately what I’m trying to find out is if anyone can win long term without using numbers? Is it realistic to say some sports bettors can win long term by having knowledge of sports, identifying mismatches, using their gut feeling, looking for specific spots, etc?

If you think it’s possible to win longterm without using numbers what percentage of winners are using numbers vs the ones that don’t use numbers?

Thanks in advance!

It's all about the numbers

 

[rip007]

Right, moneyline moves are worth noting as well, don't believe everything the odds screen says, many games play out opposite,
Just Sayin

 

[pete0]

A couple of times I’ve read that only 1-2% of sports bettors win long term. Is it true that the only way to win long term is by using numbers such as models, systems, stats, etc?

Ultimately what I’m trying to find out is if anyone can win long term without using numbers? Is it realistic to say some sports bettors can win long term by having knowledge of sports, identifying mismatches, using their gut feeling, looking for specific spots, etc?

If you think it’s possible to win longterm without using numbers what percentage of winners are using numbers vs the ones that don’t use numbers?

Thanks in advance!

1. Get behind the screen of a major book, not a rec. book

2. See the $ coming in both sides from open- close.

3. Check profiles of players coming in.

No research necessary.

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In short, information

 

[KVB]

A couple of times I’ve read that only 1-2% of sports bettors win long term. Is it true that the only way to win long term is by using numbers such as models, systems, stats, etc?

The only way to win long term is to continuously make bets that have a positive expected value. There a mulitiple ways to do this, you can go the quant like route and crunch it all for an edge.

But you can also derive it from the market by Knowing Your Markets. That might require a certain amount of efficiency in the market to attain, but if you blend the two methods and watch those screens you can identify inefficiencies, then bet them and manage the money well.

Patience and discipline are essential and there is no substitute for experience in these approaches. Margins can be very low and it's not a "get rich quick" scheme.