Can anyone win longterm WITHOUT using numbers?

[613tunit]

A couple of times I’ve read that only 1-2% of sports bettors win long term. Is it true that the only way to win long term is by using numbers such as models, systems, stats, etc?

Ultimately what I’m trying to find out is if anyone can win long term without using numbers? Is it realistic to say some sports bettors can win long term by having knowledge of sports, identifying mismatches, using their gut feeling, looking for specific spots, etc?

If you think it’s possible to win longterm without using numbers what percentage of winners are using numbers vs the ones that don’t use numbers?

Thanks in advance!

 

[stormtrooper8]

I think all of those non-number factors can be helpful, but you have to pair it was analyzing numbers.

You can have a great read on a specific team, game, etc but the betting decision ultimately requires you to compare your “gut” to what’s offered on the market

But to reiterate — I think having qualitative knowledge about teams, the game, etc is helpful

 

[baz]

Absolutely you can. They want you thinking it's all about numbers so you start capping the numbers instead of the games. That said, yes, you need to always be doing what you can to get the best number/price but that's not everything. Brad Powers (professional sports bettor) had a stat at the end of last football season that plays that got steamed up more than 3 points were hitting well over 60% taking the bad number the last 4 years. Obviously that was not the case for many years.

 

[jjgold]

Almost every successful better just bets numbers they never look at a statistic nor do they know one player in any league and they bet any sport possible

They only look for mathematical edges. They have no time to look at silly stats.

 

[baz]

Almost every successful better just bets numbers they never look at a statistic nor do they know one player in any league and they bet any sport possible

They only look for mathematical edges. They have no time to look at silly stats.

You have to be aware of a team's power rating to know what numbers are accurate. Period. You have to be familiar with the talent pool for the teams. Nobody is still looking at stats. I think last time I factored in individual statistics was prob late 2008.

 

[jjgold]

If you know how to read a line screen that’s all you need but takes lots of cash spread at many books

most people don’t have the resources, nor the money to pull this off

 

[baz]

If you know how to read a line screen that’s all you need but takes lots of cash spread at many books

most people don’t have the resources, nor the money to pull this off

That's a myth bro. You could go into any sportsbook in America and randomly pull in 10 guys, give them a million dollars and access to screens and they would still lose and prob do even worse.

 

[jjgold]

Sportsbooks have every piece of data in the world. That’s why looking at statistics is very, very silly.

these books are hiring analytics guys that have the same skill set as the smart gambler

it’s very very difficult too many obstacles to overcome

 

[613tunit]

JJ you’ve been saying that it’s impossible to win long term at sports betting for years if not decades. Why do you bet if it’s impossible to win?

 

[baz]

JJ you’ve been saying that it’s impossible to win long term at sports betting for years if not decades. Why do you bet if it’s impossible to win?

Bro he is razor sharp. He's been winning for years. Do not believe his facade.

 

[613tunit]

Really??? I know it’s a virtual character he plays but I’m still shocked. Can I ask how you know he’s sharp / long term winner? Thanks!

 

[baz]

Really??? I know it’s a virtual character he plays but I’m still shocked. Can I ask how you know he’s sharp / long term winner? Thanks!

I can read people like a book and my Dad was an East Coast guy similar to JJ, it's just in my DNA. I've never met JJ in person but I prob know his whole life story.

 

[613tunit]

Awesome lolol

 

[easy_street]

What does using numbers mean? I personally don't model anything nor math it up but of course I bet numbers....I mean odds are numbers and if I see something off with what I think might happen, I take note of it.

Then again i don't consider myself a winner so, maybe you're right , winners use numbers.

 

[JDS]

I can read people like a book and my Dad was an East Coast guy similar to JJ, it's just in my DNA. I've never met JJ in person but I prob know his whole life story.

I sometimes say I can read people like a 10 page book on here funny you should say that lol.

 

[baz]

What does using numbers mean? I personally don't model anything nor math it up but of course I bet numbers....I mean odds are numbers and if I see something off with what I think might happen, I take note of it.

Then again i don't consider myself a winner so, maybe you're right , winners use numbers.

He is talking like, say a team is -3 on the betting board for whatever reason and their power rating says they are closer to -1 Then you would see a lot of sharp money come in on the +3 until the line is -1 and there is no value. Just a very small example. I always say though If you don't know the person or group responsible for a move then you are assuming it's either a head fake to change the odds or if they are attacking that particular line until the value is gone.

 

[jjgold]

Nobodies outsmarting a book with stats

 

[baz]

Nobodies outsmarting a book with stats

It's not so much about outsmarting the books. It's outsmarting the other players too. Often times the book hangs a line knowing it's off and a bunch of hamburgers are going to hammer the wrong side, so at that point you are siding with the book.

 

[easy_street]

He is talking like, say a team is -3 on the betting board for whatever reason and their power rating says they are closer to -1 Then you would see a lot of sharp money come in on the +3 until the line is -1 and there is no value. Just a very small example. I always say though If you don't know the person or group responsible for a move then you are assuming it's either a head fake to change the odds or if they are attacking that particular line until the value is gone.

then i do that all the time. i compare what books show me to what i think, to what other books think all the time...

I thought he meant making my own numbers and comparing that to the books'

 

[carolinakid]

it like many things you get out of what effort you put into it