Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Nice regression spot here with both of the first games going under. The offenses should pick it up.

Padres v. Dbacks over 9.5 (+100)

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[Analytics Capper]

Washington is on a second night of a back to back and should feel some fatigued legs today. They've played well against some great competition recently, but I'm not sure they can sustain it. At -115, this is great value for the better and fresher team.

Bruins ML (-115) v. Capitals

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[Pimike]

Washington is on a second night of a back to back and should feel some fatigued legs today. They've played well against some great competition recently, but I'm not sure they can sustain it. At -115, this is great value for the better and fresher team.

Bruins ML (-115) v. Capitals

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This line is to low.

that concerns me

 

[Analytics Capper]

Both line ups are very good but I'm going to side with the home team here, coming off a loss last night to the Red Sox. I lean the over as well but just going to continue to stay selective in early part of the season.

Pick: Yankees ML (-115) v. Blue Jays

 

[Analytics Capper]

A must win game for Vegas tonight as they are sitting outside of the last wild card spot. The Canucks have been playing very well, winning their last 3 games, but I think that makes this price even better for VGK backers. It could easily be in the -160-170 range. Although Vegas is still missing Mark Stone, they should have enough offense to get it done tonight.

Pick: Golden Knights ML (-140) v. Canucks

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[Analytics Capper]

The Rangers and Flyers are both on the second night of back to back that involves travel. I'm going to side with the much more superior team coming off a loss. New York is also still playing for something as they are motivate to jockey up the standings in the Eastern Conference.

Rangers in Regulation (-130) v. Flyers

Find the best odds for tonight's game in BMR's Odds page.

 

[Analytics Capper]

Chicago has one of the worst defenses in the league and the Sharks are a surprisingly 11-6 when favored. I think San Jose will have enough defense to get this done tonight on the road.

Sharks ML (-115) v. Blackhawks

 

[Analytics Capper]

Florida at home is dominant. They have one of the best records in the league and their scoring takes a huge jump in their home arena. I think they take care of things tonight too but I rather lay less juice on their team total.

Panthers Team Total Over 3.5 (-140) v. Jets

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[Analytics Capper]

The series is tied 1-1 but I give the edge to Pittsburgh today as they face the Nationals at home. Rogers had a great start for Washington against the Braves in his first start and I don't think he can replicate it. Also with the Pirates coming off a 2-7 loss last night, there's value in them today.

Pirates ML (-115) v. Nationals

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[Wagerallsports]

Good call on Pittsburgh

 

[Analytics Capper]

Milwaukee is too good to get dominated like this by St. Louis. I think Ashby will have a solid outing for the Brewers today, but the key for them will be their bats. Only scoring 2 runs in the last 2 games, I'm going to play the regression here and look for Milwaukee's bats to wake up and score enough to get the win today.

Brewers ML (-130) v. Cardinals

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[Analytics Capper]

Both pitchers are good and I trust they will be able to get the necessary outs tonight. Kershaw is coming off a perfect game and looks to be in great rhythm. Let's hope it continues tonight!

Braves v. Dodgers F5 under 4.5 (-110)

 

[Analytics Capper]

Coming off a loss, I think the Phillies get it done on the road tonight. The Rockies have been surprising to start the year but I think they come back down to early a little bit in the next 5-10 games. Philadelphia should come out and dominate tonight in the hitters ballpark in Colorado.

Phillies ML (-130) v. Rockies

BMR's Sportsbook Rating Guide is my go-to guide to find the best books.

 

[Analytics Capper]

A good pitching matchup between Keuchel and Bieber this afternoon, and I give the edge to Bieber. The Keuchel road/home splits are a real thing and I think we see the same trend today. Remember they are playing a double header today, this is the first game. Guardians are coming off 3 straight losses, all at home, this is a great bounce back spot for them.

Guardians ML (-135) v. White Sox [Game 1]

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[Analytics Capper]

I was on Miami yesterday and they pitched just as well as St. Louis. Both teams only manufactured 5 hits each. The Cardinals were able to score 2 runs to win 2-0. I think Miami bounces back tonight and their bats will wake up. They only have a combined 1 run in the previous 2 games against St. Louis. It's a great regression spot, and the price isn't too expensive. Give me the home team to not get swept in this series.

Marlins ML (-130) v. Cardinals

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[Analytics Capper]

The Hawks are coming off two bad performances in Miami, but they get back to their friendly confines in Atlanta. Historically, they've been a much better home team than road team and this year was no different. 24-18 ATS at home and only 15-29 ATS on the road. I'm going to stay with this trend as I do see an uptick of shooting from their role players tonight. They are a -30 from beyond the arc after Games 1 and 2 (Miami with 32 3PT Made and Atlanta with 22 3PT Made). That is a significant discrepancy and I believe we see it even out tonight. On Thursday, every single road team won and covered. I think we see the home teams get back some revenge tonight.

Hawks +1.5 (-105) v. Heat

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[Analytics Capper]

The Reds are a bad team and are coming off a loss, but are still favored today. I think that's a big tell from oddsmakers today. I'm going to take the bet and jump on. Surprisingly, the pitching matchup does favor the Reds with Mahle. Hudson for Cardinals has been subpar so far in the young season with a 7.71 ERA.

Reds ML (-110) v. Cardinals

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[Bubbles]

The Reds are a bad team and are coming off a loss, but are still favored today. I think that's a big tell from oddsmakers today. I'm going to take the bet and jump on. Surprisingly, the pitching matchup does favor the Reds with Mahle. Hudson for Cardinals has been subpar so far in the young season with a 7.71 ERA.

Reds ML (-110) v. Cardinals

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that's also my question. why they are favored today? lol

 

[Analytics Capper]

Both above average offenses, with Pittsburgh really rounding into form for the playoffs. Great price here as this has been hit several times.

Penguins v. Flyers over 6.5 (-110)

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[Analytics Capper]

Angels ML (-120) v. Guardians

Bieber is on the mound for Cleveland and the Angels are still favored. Really big tip by books here. Los Angeles should be able to manufacture some runs tonight.