All things hockey in here (NHL, AHL, OHL, International, etc.)

[Wagerallsports]

Q I'm curious how you got so involved with NHL and international hockey

And at what age

 

[quantumleap]

Q I'm curious how you got so involved with NHL and international hockey

And at what age

I've always been a sports fan. When I moved to Southern California, my roommate and I were Kings fans so we went to the games there. That was back in the early 90s.

As far as International hockey, I followed carolinakid's Don Best Steam threads and found that minor league hockey had some sharp bettors so I just followed the steam. That was last season. This season I think the books wised up and don't move the line like they did last season so it's not predictive.

 

[Tanko]

I've always been a sports fan. When I moved to Southern California, my roommate and I were Kings fans so we went to the games there. That was back in the early 90s.

As far as International hockey, I followed carolinakid's Don Best Steam threads and found that minor league hockey had some sharp bettors so I just followed the steam. That was last season. This season I think the books wised up and don't move the line like they did last season so it's not predictive.

The books...... They do learn to adjust over time.

Perfect example, NCAABB. I jumped on KenPom statistics immediately when he came out with them in 2002. They weren't as refined as now but they were fantastic and I was printing money using them vs the books line for about 2-3 years. The books finally caught up and the paydays went south.

Now, it seems most lines are based on KenPom stats (or are at least close when you factor in injuries). No obvious edge anymore. Got to find new ones.

 

[lemartinsports]

W) Vegas

I hope you bit off a bite of this bet, Le!

youre the man!! for sure best nhl capper heh

i've got tampa -1.5 tonight against chicago. please tell me you agree lol

 

[quantumleap]

youre the man!! for sure best nhl capper heh

i've got tampa -1.5 tonight against chicago. please tell me you agree lol

Homer!





I'll take a look at it.

pimike has a pretty good NHL record this season too. He's asked me to be on one of your broadcasts like you mentioned. I'll see what he has to say.

 

[quantumleap]

The books...... They do learn to adjust over time.

Perfect example, NCAABB. I jumped on KenPom statistics immediately when he came out with them in 2002. They weren't as refined as now but they were fantastic and I was printing money using them vs the books line for about 2-3 years. The books finally caught up and the paydays went south.

Now, it seems most lines are based on KenPom stats (or are at least close when you factor in injuries). No obvious edge anymore. Got to find new ones.

Good stuff, Tanko. Now we just need to find out which KenPom stats are off and we can start printing money again.

 

[Tanko]

Good stuff, Tanko. Now we just need to find out which KenPom stats are off and we can start printing money again.

I've been working that angle for 15 years without success.

 

[lemartinsports]

Homer!





I'll take a look at it.

pimike has a pretty good NHL record this season too. He's asked me to be on one of your broadcasts like you mentioned. I'll see what he has to say.

having the both of you on a pod would be legendary....lets make it happen

 

[quantumleap]

I've been working that angle for 15 years without success.

Another case where steam had been an great indicator but no longer holds true is the FCS football games. I'm thinking in seasons previous to 2022, Pinnacle didn't have a line mover and the lines would simply get juiced. So if you saw a line line -5 -110 go to -5 -150, it was a pretty good indicator sharps were hitting the line and it was a great indicator.
All that seemed to stop this past season. Oh well. It was great while it lasted.

 

[Tanko]

having the both of you on a pod would be legendary....lets make it happen

Please make this happen. This would be fantastic.

 

[Tanko]

Another case where steam had been an great indicator but no longer holds true is the FCS football games. I'm thinking in seasons previous to 2022, Pinnacle didn't have a line mover and the lines would simply get juiced. So if you saw a line line -5 -110 go to -5 -150, it was a pretty good indicator sharps were hitting the line and it was a great indicator.
All that seemed to stop this past season. Oh well. It was great while it lasted.

We got to find "New" edges, new methods, systems for filtering the bad plays and finding the cream.
I wish I had PiMike's notes.

 

[lemartinsports]

Please make this happen. This would be fantastic.

i agree. i'll see what i can do

 

[carolinakid]

never play sharp moves until the 15 min before a game to see if it a true or false move

 

[quantumleap]

youre the man!! for sure best nhl capper heh

i've got tampa -1.5 tonight against chicago. please tell me you agree lol

Le, I would tread lightly with the -1.5 tonight. Yes, Chicago is a train wreck of a team right now but one factor I use is that many NHL teams are home/away teams and TB is one of those. The Lightning have an 8-7 road record. They really are a home team.

Add in the possibility that the Blackhawks may start Stalock instead of Mrazek and you have all sorts of additional uncertainty here. Just me personally, but I stay away from uncertainty when at all possible.

I see now looking at Mrazek's starts and in 9 out of his last 10 games, the Blackhawks haven't come within 2 points of their opponent. This would be a great indicator for future games that Mrazek starts. Let's keep an eye on it.

 

[quantumleap]

01-03-23

NHL

STL/TOR over 6
Binnington for STL has had some good games where he didn't give up many goals but those were against low-scoring teams. Samsonov for TOR has an 11-3 record but his last 3 games had him giving up at least 3 goals in each.

SEA +146
The Kraken are a good team on the road and have a better goalie in net in Jones. The Oilers have lost their last 4 home games. This is a good price for this matchup.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, here is my record of NHL games this season (excluding any LIVE picks). As you may see I hit a rough patch in the middle there but I've since gone 11-2 the last 13 after trying a new betting strategy (outlined on a previous page).

W) Bruins/Knights under 6
W) Bruins -159
L) NJ -109
L) Calgary/Montreal over 6 -108
L) NJ -157
W) CAR -165
W) WAS team total over 3 1/2
L) Dallas/Wash over 6
W) Coyotes +157
W) CLB/BOS under 6 1/2
L) MON PK +212
L) ARI +153
L) NYI/Vegas under 6
L) Bruins (-433) & Edmonton (-321) = -167
L) Panthers/Devils over 6 1/2
L) Coyotes/Vegas Knights under 6 -108
L) Blues/Knights under 6
W) BOS -120
W) BOS pk -113
W) BOS/NJ under 6 1/2
W) Coyotes -1/2 +247
W) Buff -168
L) MON +1 1/2 +127
W) Flyers/Sharks over 6 1/2
W) Edmonton -101
W) Carolina -174
W) Winnipeg +101
W) Carolina -112
L) BUF +115
W) Vegas +147

 

[quantumleap]

W) STL/TOR over 6
STL 6, TOR 5

W) SEA +146
SEA 5, EDM 2

Le, I hope I didn't talk you out of taking that TB -1 1/2 bet, but the score was tied in the 3rd before TB broke loose.

 

[lemartinsports]

W) STL/TOR over 6
STL 6, TOR 5

W) SEA +146
SEA 5, EDM 2

Le, I hope I didn't talk you out of taking that TB -1 1/2 bet, but the score was tied in the 3rd before TB broke loose.

hehe no you didn't, was very happy to see my team win and cover

appreciate your input on everything. best of luck today!!!

 

[Microphone]

W) STL/TOR over 6
STL 6, TOR 5

W) SEA +146
SEA 5, EDM 2

Le, I hope I didn't talk you out of taking that TB -1 1/2 bet, but the score was tied in the 3rd before TB broke loose.

Great job. Kraken still not getting respect in the lines.

 

[quantumleap]

Great job. Kraken still not getting respect in the lines.

Especially on the road where they have a 10-4-1 record.

That's why I pay attention to the home/away records in the NHL. You can get a team with a decent overall record but a .500 record at home playing a team with a good road record and the home team is getting -170 or so. That sets off bells to me.