Tanko - CFB Plays 2024

[enkhbat]

Reasons why you like Florida +3 ? I ask you this because I have a big bet on the other side but for the ML.

It's more of a lean, I am not betting anything week 1. I am leaning Florida because it is a home game and they usually have a strong new freshman recruits coming in. So, I feel like they can keep it close.

 

[Tanko]

It's more of a lean, I am not betting anything week 1. I am leaning Florida because it is a home game and they usually have a strong new freshman recruits coming in. So, I feel like they can keep it close.

One thing I like is they returned 74% of their offense (well above avg for CFB teams) and 55% of their defense (about average).

Miami returned about avg on each side of the ball (55% off, 45% def).

Sure they weren't exactly stellar last year, but on opening day, I like an experienced team at home.

 

[JDS]

One thing I like is they returned 74% of their offense (well above avg for CFB teams) and 55% of their defense (about average).

Miami returned about avg on each side of the ball (55% off, 45% def).

Sure they weren't exactly stellar last year, but on opening day, I like an experienced team at home.

Miami has a shitload of stud transfers which will be the difference in that game to my estimation.

 

[Tanko]

Miami has a shitload of stud transfers which will be the difference in that game to my estimation.

I think I saw all those transfers partying last night at the Midnight Underground Club in Gainsville.


GL Buddy

 

[Tanko]

Reasons why you like Florida +3 ? I ask you this because I have a big bet on the other side but for the ML.

I saw this game on my spreads as a pick'em so the +3 was enticing.

Why:

• FLA at home.
• Returning Offense: FLA 73%, MIA 55%
• Returning Defense: FLA 55%, MIA 45%
• Overall Transfer ratings: FLA 63.4, MIA 57.9

Sure Florida had a "bad" year last year with a 5-7 record and lost their last 5 games but, look at who they played and how they played vs those teams.

• #1 Georgia L43-20 (Lost to best team in the country)
• Arkansas L39-36 OT (the worst loss of the bunch - let down after Georgia loss?).
• @#19 LSU L52-35 They were down by 3 with 9 min left in the game. Could have won this one.
• @#9 Missouri L33-31 Damn near knocked off Missouri at home. Lost on last second FG
• #5 Florida State L24-15. Leading into 4Q and lost.

This is a good Florida team based on how they finished the season IMO.

 

[JDS]

I saw this game on my spreads as a pick'em so the +3 was enticing.

Why:

• FLA at home.
• Returning Offense: FLA 73%, MIA 55%
• Returning Defense: FLA 55%, MIA 45%
• Overall Transfer ratings: FLA 63.4, MIA 57.9

Sure Florida had a "bad" year last year with a 5-7 record and lost their last 5 games but, look at who they played and how they played vs those teams.

• #1 Georgia L43-20 (Lost to best team in the country)
• Arkansas Arkansas L39-36 OT (the worst loss of the bunch - let down after Georgia loss?).
• @#19 LSU L52-35 They were down by 3 with 9 min left in the game. Could have won this one.
• @#9 Missouri L33-31 Damn near knocked off Missouri at home. Lost on last second FG
• #5 Florida State L24-15. Leading into 4Q and lost.

This is a good Florida team based on how they finished the season IMO.

Nice write up and good information on why you like Florida. What I completely disagree with is the transfer portal rating is higher for Florida than for Miami. Miami got transfers at key positions that will lead to points right away.

Miami’s D line will stop the run and have to make Mertz be the hero don’t like that scenario for him. I’m pretty sure their star running back is not gonna play, and if he does he will not be 100% Montreal Johnson Jr.

 

[Tanko]

Eastern Mich +1.5 -108
James Madison -6.5 -110
Florida +3 -110
Sam Houston St. +10.5 -108
Notre Dame +3 -108
S. Alabama -4.5 -108

Adding:
Troy -8.5 -108
People are reading way too much into Nevada's performance last Saturday vs SMU.

 

[JDS]

Eastern Mich +1.5 -108
James Madison -6.5 -110
Florida +3 -110
Sam Houston St. +10.5 -108
Notre Dame +3 -108
S. Alabama -4.5 -108

Adding:
Troy -8.5 -108
People are reading way too much into Nevada's performance last Saturday vs SMU.

Love the Troy play myself, but I’ve met my budget on my risk amount with Miami can’t bet that game lol.

 

[phillyflyers]

That PSU/WEST VIRGINIA line just will not come down, Tanko.

Holding at -8.5

 

[enkhbat]

What is your best play today Tanko?

 

[Tanko]

What is your best play today Tanko?

Not on anything tonight but I kind of like Coastal Carolina +3.
Line opend at +4 so we've lost some ground.

I had this estimated at Coastal -1.5 so +3 feels nice.

 

[Franz555]

Any thoughts on tonight's Colorado / N.Dak St game ?

Its televised here and every pundit I watched on talk shows seems to love the Over ( especially @ 60 2 days ago ). The line has dropped to 56.5. Weather looks ideal for Boulder this time of year.

Appreciate it

 

[Tanko]

Any thoughts on tonight's Colorado / N.Dak St game ?

Its televised here and every pundit I watched on talk shows seems to love the Over ( especially @ 60 2 days ago ). The line has dropped to 56.5. Weather looks ideal for Boulder this time of year.

Appreciate it

I have the total at 62 so with the massive drop in the line from 60 to 55 over the lasts 24 hours, I'm looking hard at the over.

Need to check if there are any injuries or weather drivers causing the line change.
ND St has a good D but not as good as it once was.

 

[Franz555]

I have the total at 62 so with the massive drop in the line from 60 to 55 over the lasts 24 hours, I'm looking hard at the over.

Need to check if there are any injuries or weather drivers causing the line change.
ND St has a good D but not as good as it once was.

Apparently , Colorado exchanged 43 players from last years squad. Much emphasis went into protecting the Golden Goose @ QB. I have no doubt that N.Dakota can score on Colorado's revamped D , just surprised at the significant drop on the O/U.

Appreciate it

 

[Tanko]

Apparently , Colorado exchanged 43 players from last years squad. Much emphasis went into protecting the Golden Goose @ QB. I have no doubt that N.Dakota can score on Colorado's revamped D , just surprised at the significant drop on the O/U.

Appreciate it

They needed to turnover some people. They ended up 2023 season with a power rating of -2 (range 30 to -30).

Returning Players for Colorado:

• Offense 27%
• Defense 55%

But, they had a transfer portal rating 60 (Range is 0-75 so they did well on the transfers).

Bottom line:
Looks like they the turned over the O-line and key players with the tranfer portal they are probably looking good for scoring now. Their D is still probably suspect since they only had 45% turnover on that side of the ball. We should see some scoring tonight.

GL.

 

[Franz555]

They needed to turnover some people. They ended up 2023 season with a power rating of -2 (range 30 to -30).

Returning Players for Colorado:

• Offense 27%
• Defense 55%

But, they had a transfer portal rating 60 (Range is 0-75 so they did well on the transfers).

Bottom line:
Looks like they the turned over the O-line and key players with the tranfer portal they are probably looking good for scoring now. Their D is still probably suspect since they only had 45% turnover on that side of the ball. We should see some scoring tonight.

GL.

Solid info

Thank you

 

[Franz555]

They needed to turnover some people. They ended up 2023 season with a power rating of -2 (range 30 to -30).

Returning Players for Colorado:

• Offense 27%
• Defense 55%

But, they had a transfer portal rating 60 (Range is 0-75 so they did well on the transfers).

Bottom line:
Looks like they the turned over the O-line and key players with the tranfer portal they are probably looking good for scoring now. Their D is still probably suspect since they only had 45% turnover on that side of the ball. We should see some scoring tonight.

GL.

Nailed it

Again , great info Tank

Appreciate it

 

[Tanko]

Adding to week 1 plays:
Wisconsin U57 -108 (they play W. Mich)

• The last two years Wisc has played a couple of "easy" games near the start of the season. All teams do. In those 4 games over the last two years, they've only covered 57 pts 1 time. That was a game vs New Mex St. agruably the worst team in Div 1 in 2022. The other 3 games that were under 57 total, were vs poor Div 1 schools (G. Southern, Buffalo) or decent Championship Subdivision team (Ill St.).
  
  
• Western Michigan plays a couple of "Power 5" schools at the start of each season and in the last two years, all 4 games have not gone over 57 pts (Syr, Iowa, Mich St, Pitt). Three of their 4 opponents were ranked at the time.

W. Mich is not a good team but not as bad as the prior year's teams. They are returning 64% of their defense.

GL

 

[Tanko]

Adding to week 1 plays:
Wisconsin U57 -108 (they play W. Mich)

• The last two years Wisc has played a couple of "easy" games near the start of the season. All teams do. In those 4 games over the last two years, they've only covered 57 pts 1 time. That was a game vs New Mex St. agruably the worst team in Div 1 in 2022. The other 3 games that were under 57 total, were vs poor Div 1 schools (G. Southern, Buffalo) or decent Championship Subdivision team (Ill St.).
  
  
• Western Michigan plays a couple of "Power 5" schools at the start of each season and in the last two years, all 4 games have not gone over 57 pts (Syr, Iowa, Mich St, Pitt). Three of their 4 opponents were ranked at the time.

W. Mich is not a good team but not as bad as the prior year's teams. They are returning 64% of their defense.

GL

Looking good so far. Start of 4Q 13-7 score.
Hopefully, we start off the year right.

Plays for manana are below.

Eastern Mich +1.5 -108
James Madison -6.5 -110
Florida +3 -110
Sam Houston St. +10.5 -108
Notre Dame +3 -108
S. Alabama -4.5 -108

Adding:
Troy -8.5 -108
People are reading way too much into Nevada's performance last Saturday vs SMU.

 

[leafyon62]

Betting about 160 games and commin out on top is itself a feat.