Tanko - CFB Plays 2024

[Tanko]

I have been back and forth on that N. Carolina game I like this Pitt offense and their D has been better than anticipated but it just smells like too many pts.

I was torn as well. I pointed out it was my most questionable play this week. They are good but can Coach Brown turn them around. I'm thinking yes...... Of course the +5.5 at home helped convince me.

 

[800money]

Week 7 Plays
Adding the Vandy/Kent over.


La Tech -4.5 -110 (win)
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
San Jose St. +1.5 -108
Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

Good number on Eastern Mich. I'm on +3

 

[Tanko]

Good number on Eastern Mich. I'm on +3

I make picks on Sunday or Monday to try and beat the closing lines.
Doesn't always work but, I try.

GL

 

[Tanko]

Crushing defeat by North Carolina +5.5....



We were screwed for most of the game, then the comeback... Woohoo! We have a chance to win it outright with a TD with less than a minute to go.... but no. We settle for a FG with 40 seconds left to tie it. OK... We're going to OT.... We got this.

But, wait. G. Tech scores a TD in those 40 seconds and we lose the cover.

Unbelievable.


Tar Heels and Coach Brown are snake bit this season.

 

[Tanko]

Gambling gods wanted their money back this week.
-$474

 

[Tanko]

Fortunately, after that disaster of a weekend, still + money on the year!
YTD 39-31-1, (56%)
+$562 (5.6 Units ), ROI 7.4%

 

[BMR Genie]

Fortunately, after that disaster of a weekend, still + money on the year!
YTD 39-31-1, (56%)
+$562 (5.6 Units ), ROI 7.4%

View attachment 44205

Still a winner overall, Tank.

 

[Tanko]

YTD 39-31-1, (56%) +$562 (5.6 Units ), ROI 7.4%
Still + money. Lets see if we can build on it this week.

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112

 

[Tanko]

Thoughts I had on the New Mex game.

I agree with you CB... These are two bad teams but one is much worse than the other IMO.
Some of the things I saw that I liked about this game.

• Utah St. is last in the rankings for defense (134th out of 134).
• Utah St. average margin for games this year is -26 pts.
• New Mex can run (as you mentioned) 22nd in country.
• New Mex scores when they get in the red zone (93% - 23rd in country)
• New Mex is on a two game win streak. Utah St. hasn't won a FBS game.
• The two recent wins for New Mex were against teams ranked similarly to Utah St (New Mex St & Air Force) and won those games by 10 an 15 respectively.

I had this game estimated at New Mex -10. Only giving up 2.5, hell yeah. I'm in.

 

[Tanko]

YTD 39-31-1, (56%) +$562 (5.6 Units ), ROI 7.4%
Still + money. Lets see if we can build on it this week.

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112

KansasB - weakest play
I think Kansas is the weakest play on my card. I just don't understand why that team is not better this year. Well, check that. I do know. It's because Jalen Daniels has not played well.

I still take them under 7 vs a hapless Houston Cougars. Houston won their last game @ TCU. That was a complete shock but, I can't trust a team that was shutout for 8 quarters prior to that.

Plays I really like

• Iowa. They are looking good lately running the ball. I think they've doubled their offensive points output already this year vs last. Of course their Defense is where they win games. I have this game as Iowa -10 and +EV of 9.2%.
  
  
• Kansas St. I'm thinking Colorado thoguth they would beat KSU last week. This team is good. They run the ball well and their defense stops the run well. W. Virg bread and butter is running and KSU should put a good dent in that part of the Mountaineers game. If W.Virg can't run, they are done. Their QB is not good. Lots of INTs when he has to throw the ball. I think the've lost every game he's had to through more than 30 passes and has had at least 2 INTs in each of those games.
  
  Kansas has one loss this year (BYU - who appears to be pretty good). W. Virg has only beaten a couple of teams (Okla St. and Kansas) who've shown they aren't what the press built them up to be preseason.
  
  
• Texas Uhhhhmmmmm. Dayam. This team is good. I don't think Georgia will hang with them at Darrell K Royal stadium in Austin. They are winning games by an average of 36 points so far this year. Sure, but this is Georgia. But, Georgia lost to Bama and barely beat Kentucky. Georgia made the great comeback vs Bama but I don't see that happening against Texas.
  
  This will be a fun one to watch but Texas breaks away at some point and wins by a TD or more.

 

[Wagerallsports]

• Texas Uhhhhmmmmm. Dayam. This team is good. I don't think Georgia will hang with them at Darrell K Royal stadium in Austin. They are winning games by an average of 36 points so far this year. Sure, but this is Georgia. But, Georgia lost to Bama and barely beat Kentucky. Georgia made the great comeback vs Bama but I don't see that happening against Texas.
  
  This will be a fun one to watch but Texas breaks away at some point and wins by a TD or more.

Agreed before as I’ve been saying all season that Texas will beat Georgia

But I think I’ve changed my mind after that Bulldogs loss to Bama

That may have been what Georgia needed & they may be on a mission now

 

[BMR Genie]

YTD 39-31-1, (56%) +$562 (5.6 Units ), ROI 7.4%
Still + money. Lets see if we can build on it this week.

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112

A new set of weeks action! Let's go!

 

[Tanko]

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112


Adding
Ohio +3.5 -108
Overlooked this one yesteray. Lost a 0.5 pt on the line as a result. +EV ~5%.

 

[Tanko]

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112


Adding
Ohio +3.5 -108
Overlooked this one yesteray. Lost a 0.5 pt on the line as a result. +EV ~5%.

For those of you who are curious here is my estimated +EV% for these plays. You can see a couple are pretty low (KU and Tex).

I mentioned I'm not a real big fan of KU but I did bet it and believe they will cover this week at home. The Texas play is a momentum play. This team is just too good IMO to not cover vs Georgia.

The rest met my general criteria of > +3% EV.

Team	+EV%
W. Kent +3 -108	8.4
Buffalo +1 -105	10.1
Kansas St. -2.5 -108	4.1
New Mex -1 -108	5.9
NC State +10 -108	3.5
Kansas -6.5 -108	-0.1
Texas -3.5 -110	1.0
Iowa -5 -112	12.1
Ohio +3.5 -108	6.0

 

[Tanko]

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112
Ohio +3.5 -108

Adding
Colorado State -6.5 -113
This one is a little more iffy.... Tory Horton, Colorado State's best WR is out for the season as of yesterday. You can see the line adjusted from -7.5 to -6.5.

I have this at about +5% EV (might be slightly lower adjusting for Horton).
I think the line should be closer to 9.5 or 10 with the way AF has played. They are giving up 39 ppg in the last month and scoring 21 ppg. Colorado State is scoring 30 ppg and giving up 27 over the same period.

 

[Tanko]

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112
Ohio +3.5 -108
Colorado State -6.5 -113

My CFB week kicksoff tonight with W. Kentucky.
I really like this one. At +3 I'm seeing a 6-7% +EV. Frankly I see this as closer to a pk if not W. Kent being slightly favored on my calcs. SH St. runs the ball well so that will be the key for W. Kent.... Slow the Bearkats down on the ground while executing their own very good passing game. SH St is vulnerable to good passing teams so I think the Hilltoppers will abuse that passing-D of the Bearkats.

Sam Houston is rolling with 4 straight wins but only one of those has been against a team similar in strength to W. Kent. That was Texas St where SH St won by 1 and actually should have lost the the game if not for very stupid 4th down call by Texas State on their own 25.

GL all.

 

[BMR Genie]

Week 8 CFB
W. Kent +3 -108
Buffalo +1 -105
Kansas St. -2.5 -108
New Mex -1 -108
NC State +10 -108
Kansas -6.5 -108
Texas -3.5 -110
Iowa -5 -112
Ohio +3.5 -108
Colorado State -6.5 -113

My CFB week kicksoff tonight with W. Kentucky.
I really like this one. At +3 I'm seeing a 6-7% +EV. Frankly I see this as closer to a pk if not W. Kent being slightly favored on my calcs. SH St. runs the ball well so that will be the key for W. Kent.... Slow the Bearkats down on the ground while executing their own very good passing game. SH St is vulnerable to good passing teams so I think the Hilltoppers will abuse that passing-D of the Bearkats.

Sam Houston is rolling with 4 straight wins but only one of those has been against a team similar in strength to W. Kent. That was Texas St where SH St won by 1 and actually should have lost the the game if not for very stupid 4th down call by Texas State on their own 25.

GL all.

Great win on W. Kentucky, Tank.

I lost my SH and worst is.. loss in a blowout lol

 

[Wagerallsports]

Nice call tank

 

[Wagerallsports]

When younger I have played lots of pickup basketball games in and around Western Kentucky Univ in Bowling Green

They are usually very good in basketball & football is up & down

 

[Tanko]

My CFB week kicksoff tonight with W. Kentucky.
I really like this one. At +3 I'm seeing a 6-7% +EV. Frankly I see this as closer to a pk if not W. Kent being slightly favored on my calcs. SH St. runs the ball well so that will be the key for W. Kent.... Slow the Bearkats down on the ground while executing their own very good passing game. SH St is vulnerable to good passing teams so I think the Hilltoppers will abuse that passing-D of the Bearkats.

Sam Houston is rolling with 4 straight wins but only one of those has been against a team similar in strength to W. Kent. That was Texas St where SH St won by 1 and actually should have lost the the game if not for very stupid 4th down call by Texas State on their own 25.

GL all.

This game played out almost to script.

WKU was able to hold down the very good SH St. rushing game. They held them to 165 yards vs avg of 220 ypg. WKU's passing game also came around as expected with 281 yards and 3 TDs.

Turnovers played a small role with 2 for SHS and1 for WKU.