Tanko - CFB Plays 2024

[Franz555]

Alright off to a good start with La Tech winner last night.
Hope it leads to a decent Saturday.

I thank you for the Louisiana Tech play. Tailed you on 2 parlays yesterday and won both easily ( with Brazil @ 1.60 and San Fran -3.5 )

Keep it Rolling buddy

On Fire

I know you play sides , just curious how you feel about Nthwestern / Mryld O45.5 ?

 

[Tanko]

Sometimes line moves make you wonder WTH?

San Jose St. opened at -2 and dropped to -1 over 3-4 days. Then yesterday the line jumped from -1 to +1.5. Clearly some later money coming in on Colorado St. after the line had been open for 4 days and limits were gradually increasing. No new injuries reported.

I'm not sure I understand the move. I estimate the spread at SJ St. -5.5 with one method and -7 on another. The edge I calc for this game was 7% EV and is now 13% EV.

• San Jose passes the ball very well (8th in country in ypg). Colorado St pass-D is horrible (112th in the country) and thier pass rush is just as bad (104th in the country w/ 1.3 sacks/gm). Weather will be clear and 80 F for the game.
• San Jose has beat similarly ranked teams already. Last week they beat Nevada by 4 and Air Force earlier in the year by 10. Colorado has lost to similarly ranked teams (Colorado -19 margin, Oregon St -8 margin).
• San Jose also compares very closely to Colorado in passing ypg, again which Colorado St. lost by 19.

I'm adding another unit on this game.
Maybe I'm missing something but it seems clear to me.

San Jose St. +1.5 -108.

 

[Tanko]

Week 7 Plays
Adding another unit on San Jose St w/ the line move.

La Tech -4.5 -110
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
San Jose St. +1.5 -108

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL this weekend tank

 

[Tanko]

I thank you for the Louisiana Tech play. Tailed you on 2 parlays yesterday and won both easily ( with Brazil @ 1.60 and San Fran -3.5 )

Keep it Rolling buddy

On Fire

I know you play sides , just curious how you feel about Nthwestern / Mryld O45.5 ?

I have it at 44.5 on my estimates. I would lean over.

I would lean over and count on Maryland passing game (12th in the country) racking up some points vs NW bad pass-D game (110th in the country).

The only concern you have is if NW will come through with the points. They don't pass well (112th) and they don't run well (101st). Also NW Redzone TD efficiency is only 50%. They settle for FGs too much.

Foryunately, Maryland pass-D is bad too (121st) so NW may be able to get a few scores.

This has some legs based on comparable ranked games for each team.
Maryland @ Virg 27-13 (short)
Maryland vs Mich St. 27-24
Northwestern vs Duke 20-26

 

[renegade]

Watching northwestern on offense is like getting a root canal without novocaine

 

[renegade]

Every first down is a run
Play clock running down on every snap
Every pass route is 10 yds or under
Zero creativity/scheming to make big plays

 

[Tanko]

Vandy/Kentucky Over 44.5 popped up on my screen today.
Opened at 46 and has been bought down to 44.5. I think that is a little too low.

I'm seeing a 30+ game from Kentucky and maybe a 20+ game from Vandy.

• Vandy is giving up an avg of 31 pts vs power 5 schools.
• Kentucky defense is amazing though so there is some risk on getting the points necessary out of Vandy.
• Kentucky held Georgia to 13 and Ole Miss to 17 so.....
• But, Vandy did well against good Bama D and Missouri D so we're leaning in that direction.

Adding Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

 

[Tanko]

Week 7 Plays
Adding the Vandy/Kent over.


La Tech -4.5 -110 (win)
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
San Jose St. +1.5 -108
Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

 

[RRsilver]

Vandy/Kentucky Over 44.5 popped up on my screen today.
Opened at 46 and has been bought down to 44.5. I think that is a little too low.

I'm seeing a 30+ game from Kentucky and maybe a 20+ game from Vandy.

• Vandy is giving up an avg of 31 pts vs power 5 schools.
• Kentucky defense is amazing though so there is some risk on getting the points necessary out of Vandy.
• Kentucky held Georgia to 13 and Ole Miss to 17 so.....
• But, Vandy did well against good Bama D and Missouri D so we're leaning in that direction.

Adding Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

You talked me into it. GL this week Tanko!!

 

[BMR Genie]

Week 7 Plays
Adding the Vandy/Kent over.


La Tech -4.5 -110 (win)
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
San Jose St. +1.5 -108
Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

Good luck, Tank!

 

[Tanko]

You talked me into it. GL this week Tanko!!

 

[Franz555]

I have it at 44.5 on my estimates. I would lean over.

I would lean over and count on Maryland passing game (12th in the country) racking up some points vs NW bad pass-D game (110th in the country).

The only concern you have is if NW will come through with the points. They don't pass well (112th) and they don't run well (101st). Also NW Redzone TD efficiency is only 50%. They settle for FGs too much.

Foryunately, Maryland pass-D is bad too (121st) so NW may be able to get a few scores.

This has some legs based on comparable ranked games for each team.
Maryland @ Virg 27-13 (short)
Maryland vs Mich St. 27-24
Northwestern vs Duke 20-26

Thanks Tanko , appreciate the insight

I really see Maryland putting up 28+ on Northwesterns secondary. Can I get 17
from Nthwestern ?

 

[Tanko]

I have it at 44.5 on my estimates. I would lean over.

I would lean over and count on Maryland passing game (12th in the country) racking up some points vs NW bad pass-D game (110th in the country).

The only concern you have is if NW will come through with the points. They don't pass well (112th) and they don't run well (101st). Also NW Redzone TD efficiency is only 50%. They settle for FGs too much.

Foryunately, Maryland pass-D is bad too (121st) so NW may be able to get a few scores.

This has some legs based on comparable ranked games for each team.
Maryland @ Virg 27-13 (short)
Maryland vs Mich St. 27-24
Northwestern vs Duke 20-26

Wow did I read that completely wrong. It went over but NW was the scoring machine and Maryland laid and egg. I didn't watch but need to look over the stat line to see why Maryland passing game didn't score some points.

 

[renegade]

Maryland was awful last night. Game was misleading. Nwest had about 300 yds of offense and most of that came on 2 plays. They scored 17 pts off turnovers also.

 

[Tanko]

Maryland was awful last night. Game was misleading. Nwest had about 300 yds of offense and most of that came on 2 plays. They scored 17 pts off turnovers also.

Points off turnovers, hard to predict. Thanks for the info renegade.

 

[Tanko]

Week 7 Plays
Adding the Vandy/Kent over.


La Tech -4.5 -110 (win)
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
San Jose St. +1.5 -108
Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

Full slate on the card today.
Really could use a San Jose St. win with the 2 units going on it.
GL all.

 

[sharpsquare]

Week 7 Plays
Adding the Vandy/Kent over.


La Tech -4.5 -110 (win)
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
San Jose St. +1.5 -108
Vandy/Kentucky over 44.5 -108

I have been back and forth on that N. Carolina game I like this Pitt offense and their D has been better than anticipated but it just smells like too many pts.

 

[renegade]

Mack Brown is solid as a dog too

 

[RRsilver]

Maryland was awful last night. Game was misleading. Nwest had about 300 yds of offense and most of that came on 2 plays. They scored 17 pts off turnovers also.

How many times did Maryland look like they were going to score then fuk it up!!

Glad NW was scoring for us to get that over. Whew!!