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Tanko - CFB Plays 2024

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,484
Week 7 Plays

La Tech -4.5 -110
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110
Of these plays, NC is probably the weakest pick. I can't tell if that team is collapsing or if Coach Brown will get them to turn things around. Makes it tough to play them but, I am.

Best bet is San Jose St. I bet the lines very early but even then I lost a point (opened at -1) since everyone saw this line as being "out of whack".
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,484
Guys,
MIN/UCLA game looks very intriguing. Line dropped from -6 to -4.5 MIN on Wednesday morning.
Limits at many books increased about that time from $20k to $30k so its likely from some sharp action.

I'm leaning hard on the Gophers side of the ball. They have 3 losses. The firs was in week 1 vs NC by 2 points. The second to Iowa that they lost late in the 3Q and 4Q to the great Iowa defense (top 5). The third to MICH by 3 that if you remember the onside kick call could have gone their way.

On the other side, over the last 4 weeks, UCLA has lost by:
  • Penn St. -16 margin
  • Oregon -21
  • LSU -17
  • Indiana -29
I'm not saying MIN is in the ranks of the top 3 of those games but they are comparable to Indiana.

This team is good under coach Fleck. They beat USC last week and should be able to win by at least a TD or more this week.

I have this spread at -7.5 to -8.0 MIN on one estimate and -10 to -13 on another....
I definitely see some value on this game aound +4-5% EV at -4.5.

WOULD LOVE TO HEAR OTHER'S TAKE ON THIS GAME.
 

BMR Genie

BMR Genie

Joined
Jun 16, 2016
Messages
30,276
Week 7 Plays

La Tech -4.5 -110
Memphis -6.5 -110
Eastern Mich +3.5 -115
N. Carolina +5.5 -105
San Jose St. -2 -110
Ole Miss -2 -110
San Diego St. pk -110
Oregon St. -4 -110

Adding
MIN -4.5 -108
Good luck, Tank.

Guys,
MIN/UCLA game looks very intriguing. Line dropped from -6 to -4.5 MIN on Wednesday morning.
Limits at many books increased about that time from $20k to $30k so its likely from some sharp action.

I'm leaning hard on the Gophers side of the ball. They have 3 losses. The firs was in week 1 vs NC by 2 points. The second to Iowa that they lost late in the 3Q and 4Q to the great Iowa defense (top 5). The third to MICH by 3 that if you remember the onside kick call could have gone their way.

On the other side, over the last 4 weeks, UCLA has lost by:
  • Penn St. -16 margin
  • Oregon -21
  • LSU -17
  • Indiana -29
I'm not saying MIN is in the ranks of the top 3 of those games but they are comparable to Indiana.

This team is good under coach Fleck. They beat USC last week and should be able to win by at least a TD or more this week.

I have this spread at -7.5 to -8.0 MIN on one estimate and -10 to -13 on another....
I definitely see some value on this game aound +4-5% EV at -4.5.

WOULD LOVE TO HEAR OTHER'S TAKE ON THIS GAME.
I have no great addition to this, but want to say both Minnesota football teams for NCAA and NFL are doing great rn.
 

Franz555

Franz555

Joined
Apr 10, 2018
Messages
5,778
Guys,
MIN/UCLA game looks very intriguing. Line dropped from -6 to -4.5 MIN on Wednesday morning.
Limits at many books increased about that time from $20k to $30k so its likely from some sharp action.

I'm leaning hard on the Gophers side of the ball. They have 3 losses. The firs was in week 1 vs NC by 2 points. The second to Iowa that they lost late in the 3Q and 4Q to the great Iowa defense (top 5). The third to MICH by 3 that if you remember the onside kick call could have gone their way.

On the other side, over the last 4 weeks, UCLA has lost by:
  • Penn St. -16 margin
  • Oregon -21
  • LSU -17
  • Indiana -29
I'm not saying MIN is in the ranks of the top 3 of those games but they are comparable to Indiana.

This team is good under coach Fleck. They beat USC last week and should be able to win by at least a TD or more this week.

I have this spread at -7.5 to -8.0 MIN on one estimate and -10 to -13 on another....
I definitely see some value on this game aound +4-5% EV at -4.5.

WOULD LOVE TO HEAR OTHER'S TAKE ON THIS GAME.
Awesome stuff Tank. Always appreciate when someone has time to convey their thoughts on the game.
Keep up the great work in here
 

RRsilver

RRsilver

Joined
Nov 2, 2021
Messages
5,789
Guys,
MIN/UCLA game looks very intriguing. Line dropped from -6 to -4.5 MIN on Wednesday morning.
Limits at many books increased about that time from $20k to $30k so its likely from some sharp action.

I'm leaning hard on the Gophers side of the ball. They have 3 losses. The firs was in week 1 vs NC by 2 points. The second to Iowa that they lost late in the 3Q and 4Q to the great Iowa defense (top 5). The third to MICH by 3 that if you remember the onside kick call could have gone their way.

On the other side, over the last 4 weeks, UCLA has lost by:
  • Penn St. -16 margin
  • Oregon -21
  • LSU -17
  • Indiana -29
I'm not saying MIN is in the ranks of the top 3 of those games but they are comparable to Indiana.

This team is good under coach Fleck. They beat USC last week and should be able to win by at least a TD or more this week.

I have this spread at -7.5 to -8.0 MIN on one estimate and -10 to -13 on another....
I definitely see some value on this game aound +4-5% EV at -4.5.

WOULD LOVE TO HEAR OTHER'S TAKE ON THIS GAME.
I agree coach Fleck does an amazing job. Also, on the game pick.
 
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