Tanko - CBB Plays 2024-2025

[BMR Genie]

I've got two reads on this game.

• The 14.5 seems like a lot but Duke is winning easily lately, against good teams. PIT loses to good teams. They've only played two good teams so far WISC (lost by 6 on neutral court) and MIss St. (lost by 33 on the road). I'm not sure this PIT team is that good.
  
  
• I've noticed a trend in the data that the top 8-10 teams in the country are very good compared to the next tier of teams in the 10-30 ranking range. You would think it would be slightly linear in nature with the better ranking yielding better results but, there is a break in the trend around the top 10 or so teams. These top 10 teams are crushing the next tier of teams.
  
  Saturday results:
  #1 TEN vs #23 Ark 72-56
  #3 ISU vs #25 Baylor 74-55
  #5 ALA vs #13 OKLA 107-79
  
  If you look at the other top 10 teams vs their opponents (who are not in the next tier), they usually beat their opponents by a lot more than expected by the spread.
  
  #4 Duke vs SMU 7 pt spread but won by 27
  #2 Auburn won but did not cover the 18 vs Missouri but they let up with such a huge lead late.
  
  This trend can be seen over the last couple of weeks.

Duke is obviously a top tier team. PIT is in the next tier. This could easily be a blowout at home by Duke.

This explains perfectly. Thank you.

Duke's ML is just too much, so looking later tonight for them to cover this line.

 

[Tanko]

Adding:
Nebraska +4 -103

Nebraska at Iowa.... Hoiberg's team is really playing good ball. Since their loss to Mich St. they are 6-0 S/U and ATS and beat #20 UCLA in their last game by 10.

Iowa hasn't beaten a top 50 team this season. Their only win vs a good team was vs Northwestern (#52) at home and only won by 1.

Line opened at Neb +1 and has climbed to +4 indicating sharps seem to believe in the Hawkeyes. I have this one closer to a PK. This will be determined by how well Nebraska's defense (#10) performs against Iowas offense (#22). Hoiberg is a defensive discpiline coach so I think they come out on top. The +4 just makes it even better.

GL

 

[Tanko]

Tulane +8.5-104

This one is a little bit of a stretch since neither team (Tulane @ UAB) has shown much in the way of good ball. I'm leaning on Tulane due to the large spread being offered. I would think this line should be closer to 3.5 to 4.5 so I see an edge.

UAB has won 8 games but every game has been won vs a team ranked 230 or higher in KenPom. I can't say Tulane is much better but, these teams seem closer to even in performance than not. 8.5 is a quite a few points to be giving up.

 

[Tanko]

Ariz @ W. Virg.
West Virginia +4-111

I do not understand this line. W. Virg is rolling lately. They beat Kansas on the road and they've already beaten Arizona in a neutral court 83-76 Nov 29th. Now they are dogs at home???? WTH? I think too much is being read into Arizona's last game, a win at Cincy by 5. In that game Ariz had an 18 point lead in 2H but collapsed and damn near lost the game (it was tied with 1 min left).

I realize Tucker Devries was playing in the first Ariz matchup in Nov but WVU didn't seem to miss him too much at Allen Fieldhouse. This team revolves around Javon Small (PG) and I think he comes through tonight and W. Virg likely wins outright. But, since the books are so gracious to offer us 4 points, I'll take them.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Tank gl with the action tonight

 

[Tanko]

Adding one more
Texas Tech +2 -103

To tired to add writeup.

 

[Tanko]

Summary of CBB plasy for today.

TEN +3.5 -103
NEB +4 -103
Tulane +8.5-104
West Virginia +4-111
Texas Tech +2 -103


Hopefully, we come out +money on these.
GL all.

 

[BMR Genie]

Summary of CBB plasy for today.

TEN +3.5 -103
NEB +4 -103
Tulane +8.5-104
West Virginia +4-111
Texas Tech +2 -103


Hopefully, we come out +money on these.
GL all.

Let the dogs bark today. Good luck, Tank.

 

[Tanko]

Summary of CBB plasy for today.

TEN +3.5 -103
NEB +4 -103
Tulane +8.5-104
West Virginia +4-111
Texas Tech +2 -103


Hopefully, we come out +money on these.
GL all.

1-4 -$321 yesterday....
I have become fade material.

 

[BMR Genie]

1-4 -$321 yesterday....
I have become fade material.

Lots of blowouts on dogs yesterday.

Still got a lot of time to bounce back, Tank.

 

[Tanko]

Virginia +4.5 -108
St. Bonaventure +3.5-108

 

[Wagerallsports]

Tank you don’t have any interest in totals?

 

[Tanko]

Tank you don’t have any interest in totals?

Not today.

 

[Tanko]

Adding

Bradley -1.5-103 Bookmaker

 

[JDS]

Adding

Bradley -1.5-103 Bookmaker

Let’s go Tanko team Bradley tonight 🫡

 

[KVB]

Adding

Bradley -1.5-103 Bookmaker

I posted this in Jerky's thread...

Bradley -1.5 (-103) at BM very tempting and the Bradley moneyline down to -120 also a tempting option.

They moved that line enough to get some buyers.

Good Luck

 

[Tanko]

I posted this in Jerky's thread...



They moved that line enough to get some buyers.

Good Luck

Although it ended up a loser, I feel when it hit that -1.5, it was a buy. I was debating going ML (I always look at it when line is small) but, it didn't matter.

I'd bet it again if that line came up and showed enough EV.

 

[Tanko]

0-3 -$319...... Yesterday.
JJ please stop by and fade me. I need a winner bad.
Thx

 

[JDS]

0-3 -$319...... Yesterday.
JJ please stop by and fade me. I need a winner bad.
Thx

He lost his bankroll recently, so that might be difficult for him.

 

[BMR Genie]

0-3 -$319...... Yesterday.
JJ please stop by and fade me. I need a winner bad.
Thx

Bounce back, Tank.