Tanko - CBB Plays 2024-2025

[Tanko]

1/5/25
Indiana +8 -108

This is too many points for Penn St. to give up to Hoosiers. Since their poor performance at Nebrasksa, Indiana has won 3 straight with the last one vs a decent Rutgers team where the game was never really in question.

Penn St. has played 4 (2-2) games vs Top 100 teams. In their two wins they won by 9 and more recently by 4 vs Northwestern. In these 4 games they've shown a tendency to perform poorly very late in the game and either let the opponent win or close the gap.

Easy winner.... Amen to that.

	W-L-P	%	$	ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):	14-11-0	56.0%	+$222	ROI 8.2%
Season Total:	68-70-2	49.3%	-$-585	ROI -3.9%

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Easy winner.... Amen to that.

	W-L-P	%	$	ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):	14-11-0	56.0%	+$222	ROI 8.2%
Season Total:	68-70-2	49.3%	-$-585	ROI -3.9%

Amen!

 

[Franz555]

Any idea where i can get the latest injury status on a player ?

Specifically the Wisconsin ( -1.5 ) @ Rutgers game. I like Wisky and think Rutgers cant play enough D to deal with Wisky's offense ( 84 pt Avg ). Rutger's game @ Indiana on Jan 2 , G - Dylan Harper was out with an undisclosed illness ( he is a big part of that team averaging 23 ppg etc )

Thanks Tank

BOL with your card today

 

[Tanko]

Any idea where i can get the latest injury status on a player ?

Specifically the Wisconsin ( -1.5 ) @ Rutgers game. I like Wisky and think Rutgers cant play enough D to deal with Wisky's offense ( 84 pt Avg ). Rutger's game @ Indiana on Jan 2 , G - Dylan Harper was out with an undisclosed illness ( he is a big part of that team averaging 23 ppg etc )

Thanks Tank

BOL with your card today

Harper was feeling under the weather for the Wisc game.

He appears to be playing tonight.

With sidekick Dylan Harper sidelined, fellow freshman Ace Bailey scored enough points for the two of them in Rutgers' most recent game.
Now Harper is expected back from illness to team with co-star Bailey when Rutgers battles Wisconsin on Monday night in a Big Ten clash at Piscataway, N.J.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Live Score and Stats - January 6, 2025 Gametracker

Get real-time COLLEGEBASKETBALL basketball coverage and scores as Wisconsin Badgers takes on Rutgers Scarlet Knights. We bring you the latest game previews, live stats, and recaps on CBSSports.com

www.cbssports.com

 

[Franz555]

Harper was feeling under the weather for the Wisc game.

He appears to be playing tonight.

With sidekick Dylan Harper sidelined, fellow freshman Ace Bailey scored enough points for the two of them in Rutgers' most recent game.
Now Harper is expected back from illness to team with co-star Bailey when Rutgers battles Wisconsin on Monday night in a Big Ten clash at Piscataway, N.J.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Live Score and Stats - January 6, 2025 Gametracker

Get real-time COLLEGEBASKETBALL basketball coverage and scores as Wisconsin Badgers takes on Rutgers Scarlet Knights. We bring you the latest game previews, live stats, and recaps on CBSSports.com

www.cbssports.com

Thank you

Not what i was hoping for. It explains the small line tho

 

[Tanko]

1/6/25
Northwestern St. U132 -110

 

[BMR Genie]

1/6/25
Northwestern St. U132 -110

Good luck, Tank.

 

[Tanko]

Ohio St. -5-108

Minnesota hasn't covered a spread since Nov 6th (1-11 on the year). Whenever they've played a top 50 team they've lost badly (Purdue by 20, Indiana by 15, Michigan St by 18). I just can't see them picking it up enough tonight to cover the spread.

BUT, Ohio St. isn't great on the road. They seem to be Jekyll and Hyde type performers.... They've won 2 games on neutral courts against great teams (Texas, Kentucky) and lost 3 games on neutral/away courts to good/great teams (TX A&M, Auburn, Maryland). Minnesota doesn't compare to any of the teams just listed so I believe this game will be a Jekyll type performance for Ohio St.

 

[Tanko]

1/6/25
Northwestern St. U132 -110

Why I like this play?????

McNeese @ Northwestern St.
The tempo of these two teams are two of the slowest in NCAA. They average ~65 possessions per game each. They hold the ball on average 19 and 18 seconds respectively per possession. They are slow and methodical.

McNeese has a good defense. Versus teams similar to NW St. they've held them to an average of 55 points. With this both team's slow pace I don't think there are enough possessions for McNeese to get to 77.

 

[Tanko]

Wisconsin ML -123 Bookmaker

I know Rutgers is getting Harper back after a game absence but I think Wisc wins this one.
I don't think Rutgers is that bad, I just believe Wisc is playing better having crushed Iowa in their last game.

 

[Tanko]

1-2 -$118 yesterday.

Ohio St. just couldn't get away from MIN. I don't think the buckeyes played poorly, the Gophers just played suprisingly well.

McNeese defenese wasn't as stout as I expected and they shot lights out. 57% from 3's and 55% from the field. They were on last night. The under was dead from the start.

 

[Tanko]

Bad start to the week. Need to find some winners and get in the black quick.

 

[BMR Genie]

Tank, do you agree with Duke's -14.5 line? I see both teams with the same record 12-2. Do you agree with this line?

 

[Tanko]

Tank, do you agree with Duke's -14.5 line? I see both teams with the same record 12-2. Do you agree with this line?

Let me look. Just started looking at the card.
Seems out of whack but maybe there's a definite reason.


Hey, is it cold down there in CR? Its cold here. I mean really cold for Texas.

 

[BMR Genie]

Let me look. Just started looking at the card.
Seems out of whack but maybe there's a definite reason.


Hey, is it cold down there in CR? Its cold here. I mean really cold for Texas.

Oh no.. stay warm, Tank.

Yes, it's also a bit cold here, very windy. I am trying to enjoy the weather now for I remember last yr end of Jan it was starting to be very humid.

 

[sharpsquare]

Let me look. Just started looking at the card.
Seems out of whack but maybe there's a definite reason.


Hey, is it cold down there in CR? Its cold here. I mean really cold for Texas.

its cold here in Louisiana as well (30s for Cajuns is pretty much -15 elsewhere)

 

[BMR Genie]

its cold here in Louisiana as well (30s for Cajuns is pretty much -15 elsewhere)

Stay warm and safe there, Sharp.

 

[Franz555]

Tanko ,

With soccer taking a break for most leagues , i finally dedicated some time to CBB yesterday. So many games on a daily basis , its tough to cap as a casual observer ( taking a beating so far ). Always appreciate your insight on the games

Duke vs Pitt ( -14.5 O/U 143 )

Something doesnt fit on those odds. Both are 12 - 2 and capable of 80+ pts a game. Even if you acknowledge Duke's great D to date ( 59 avg ), they still went way over last game against SMU 89 - 62. For Duke to maintain 80 pts and win by 15.....Thats already 145.

The 143 seems a gift

Thoughts appreciated

BOL with the card

 

[Tanko]

1/7/25
TEN +3.5-103 @ Florida

This should be a great game.

• Tenn #20 offense, #2 defense
• Florida #3 offense, #36 defense

Florida at home will be a big boost but, I think Tennesee has proven it can win on the road, has played a slightly tougher schedule, and is undefeated at 14-0. It is crushing teams. Their closest game was a 2 pt win at Illinois. The next closest game was 13 vs Miami on neutral court.

Looking at the top 50 wins:

• 11/22/24 Baylor, TEN won by 15 (neutral)
• 12/14/24 Illinois, TEN won by 2 (away)
• 1/4/25 Arkansas, TEN won by 24 (home)

Florida will look to bounce back after the loss to Kentucky on the road Saturday.
The game opened at +1.5. I capped it at TEN -1 so I'm feeling good about getting +3.5.

GL

 

[Tanko]

Tank, do you agree with Duke's -14.5 line? I see both teams with the same record 12-2. Do you agree with this line?

I've got two reads on this game.

• The 14.5 seems like a lot but Duke is winning easily lately, against good teams. PIT loses to good teams. They've only played two good teams so far WISC (lost by 6 on neutral court) and MIss St. (lost by 33 on the road). I'm not sure this PIT team is that good.
  
  
• I've noticed a trend in the data that the top 8-10 teams in the country are very good compared to the next tier of teams in the 10-30 ranking range. You would think it would be slightly linear in nature with the better ranking yielding better results but, there is a break in the trend around the top 10 or so teams. These top 10 teams are crushing the next tier of teams.
  
  Saturday results:
  #1 TEN vs #23 Ark 72-56
  #3 ISU vs #25 Baylor 74-55
  #5 ALA vs #13 OKLA 107-79
  
  If you look at the other top 10 teams vs their opponents (who are not in the next tier), they usually beat their opponents by a lot more than expected by the spread.
  
  #4 Duke vs SMU 7 pt spread but won by 27
  #2 Auburn won but did not cover the 18 vs Missouri but they let up with such a huge lead late.
  
  This trend can be seen over the last couple of weeks.

Duke is obviously a top tier team. PIT is in the next tier. This could easily be a blowout at home by Duke.