Tanko - 2024 MLB Plays

[Franz555]

Huge soccer Final @ 3pm est if you get the chance to watch

Bayer Leverkusen on a record breaking 50 straight undefeated....

Must See TV

 

[Tanko]

Huge soccer Final @ 3pm est if you get the chance to watch

Bayer Leverkusen on a record breaking 50 straight undefeated....

Must See TV

I'll be watching.
Thanks.

 

[Tanko]

First play for today:

Cleveland -103
This line has dropped considerably from the -132 open. We have an aging Quintana (NYM) going against McKenzie (CLE) who has looked sharp over the last couple weeks. Cleveland checks all the boxes today but I will say their bullpen has been used up a little more than the Mets over the last 2-3 days so that adds a little question mark.

What I really like is Cleveland's 17-6 home record (3rd best behind Dodgers, Phillies, Royals) vs Mets 11-13 road record. Combine that with Clevelands 5 game win streak and I believe they will win this game. The odds near even make it even more enticing.

Starting Pitching (Last 30 days: 2.15 vs 6.92 ERA)
Batting (last 7 days: WRC 100 vs 109)
Scoring (Run Differential last 10 days: 27 vs -16)
Bull Pen (0.95 vs 1.16 ERA - Rated even due to CLE pitch-count higher over last 2-3 days)
Trend (5 game winning streak - and season trends in opposite directions - See chart)
Home/Away (Good home team vs avg away team)

 

[Tanko]

Philadelphia -120

When looking at season stats, the Phillies have a small edge on starting pitchers today, Walker (PHI) vs Dunning (TEX) but its probably more pronounced than the stat line indictes since Dunning is coming back from 15 IL due to a shoulder issue. Both bullpens are well rested but the Phillies is much better than the Rangers and that's where I see this game being settled.

Odds give PHI 54.5% chance of winning. I think will all the boxes checked there's more value here.

Starting pitching (Walker >Dunning who's returning from IL)
Batting (Huge difference in WRC over last 7 days: WRC 106 vs 78)
Scoring (Run Differential last 10 days: 20 vs -19)
Bullpen (ERA: 1.19 vs 1.28 - see chart below)
Trends (PHI 8-2 in last 10, Texas 2-8 in last 10).
Home/Away (PHI best Hm record at 20-1)

 

[JDS]

First play for today:

Cleveland -103
This line has dropped considerably from the -132 open. We have an aging Quintana (NYM) going against McKenzie (CLE) who has looked sharp over the last couple weeks. Cleveland checks all the boxes today but I will say their bullpen has been used up a little more than the Mets over the last 2-3 days so that adds a little question mark.

What I really like is Cleveland's 17-6 home record (3rd best behind Dodgers, Phillies, Royals) vs Mets 11-13 road record. Combine that with Clevelands 5 game win streak and I believe they will win this game. The odds near even make it even more enticing.

Starting Pitching (Last 30 days: 2.15 vs 6.92 ERA)
Batting (last 7 days: WRC 100 vs 109)
Scoring (Run Differential last 10 days: 27 vs -16)
Bull Pen (0.95 vs 1.16 ERA - Rated even due to CLE pitch-count higher over last 2-3 days)
Trend (5 game winning streak - and season trends in opposite directions - See chart)
Home/Away (Good home team vs avg away team)


View attachment 34668

Philadelphia -120

When looking at season stats, the Phillies have a small edge on starting pitchers today, Walker (PHI) vs Dunning (TEX) but its probably more pronounced than the stat line indictes since Dunning is coming back from 15 IL due to a shoulder issue. Both bullpens are well rested but the Phillies is much better than the Rangers and that's where I see this game being settled.

Odds give PHI 54.5% chance of winning. I think will all the boxes checked there's more value here.

Starting pitching (Walker >Dunning who's returning from IL)
Batting (Huge difference in WRC over last 7 days: WRC 106 vs 78)
Scoring (Run Differential last 10 days: 20 vs -19)
Bullpen (ERA: 1.19 vs 1.28 - see chart below)
Trends (PHI 8-2 in last 10, Texas 2-8 in last 10).
Home/Away (PHI best Hm record at 20-1)



View attachment 34673

Fantastic analysis Tanko, hope the data holds up in this spot for you pal.

 

[Tanko]

Fantastic analysis Tanko, hope the data holds up in this spot for you pal.

Thanks. Had some time to kill this morning so I thought I'd dump the thought process on my picks into the forum. Might be a disaster of a day but I'm hoping for the best.

 

[JDS]

Thanks. Had some time to kill this morning so I thought I'd dump the thought process on my picks into the forum. Might be a disaster of a day but I'm hoping for the best.

Yeah I know what you mean, on losing days when we put all that work in, this shit seems pointless.

 

[Tanko]

NYY RL -1 -105
I took the Alternative RL since I didn't want to lay the juice at -150 and felt the +140 on the 1.5 RL wasn't good enough.

I'm finding it hard to see Yankees losing the 3rd game of the series to the Mariners after being sizably favored in each game so far. The 5-4 loss to the Mariners on Monday was a fluke (IMO). Yankees were up 4-1 into the 9th and lose 5-4.... come on.

From a statistics standpoint, I see Cortez (NYY) slightly better than Miller (SEA) tonight. Both can lay an egg at times but Cortez is much better at home than on the road and Miller is worse on the road. As far as the other stats the Yankees check the boxes.

Finally, the Yankess may have lost the last two games to Seattle but they are consistently putting up some runs, averaging ~ 5 rpg over the last week (see chart below). Seattle is ~1.5 rpg behind that pace even with the two games of 5 and 6 runs Monday and Tuesday.


Starting pitching (Cortez > Miller)
Batting (WRC over last 7 days: WRC 138 vs 114)
Scoring (Run Differential last 10 days: 25 vs 3)
Bullpen (ERA: 1.12 vs 1.20)
Trends (NYY 7-3 in last 10, SEA 6-4 in last 10).
Home/Away (NYY 16-8 at hm, SEA 12-12 on road)

If the Yanks do lose tonight, I'll probably check them again Thursday for the final game of the series.

 

[Tanko]

First play for today:

Cleveland -103
This line has dropped considerably from the -132 open. We have an aging Quintana (NYM) going against McKenzie (CLE) who has looked sharp over the last couple weeks. Cleveland checks all the boxes today but I will say their bullpen has been used up a little more than the Mets over the last 2-3 days so that adds a little question mark.

What I really like is Cleveland's 17-6 home record (3rd best behind Dodgers, Phillies, Royals) vs Mets 11-13 road record. Combine that with Clevelands 5 game win streak and I believe they will win this game. The odds near even make it even more enticing.

Starting Pitching (Last 30 days: 2.15 vs 6.92 ERA)
Batting (last 7 days: WRC 100 vs 109)
Scoring (Run Differential last 10 days: 27 vs -16)
Bull Pen (0.95 vs 1.16 ERA - Rated even due to CLE pitch-count higher over last 2-3 days)
Trend (5 game winning streak - and season trends in opposite directions - See chart)
Home/Away (Good home team vs avg away team)


View attachment 34668

McKinzie didn't pitch as well as I hoped but Guardians still got it done.

 

[Franz555]

Had Cleveland early as well

Appreciate the write ups and the accuracy of your stats and record.

BOL today

 

[Tanko]

A good day today.
3-0 +300
YTD 118-104-9, +1223

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

A good day today.
3-0 +300
YTD 118-104-9, +1223

 

[JDS]

A good day today.
3-0 +300
YTD 118-104-9, +1223

 

[bmgafg]

A good day today.
3-0 +300
YTD 118-104-9, +1223

good work

 

[doyleellis11]

Very nice Mr Tanko !

 

[BMR Genie]

A good day today.
3-0 +300
YTD 118-104-9, +1223

Yahoo! Great job, Tank!

 

[RRsilver]

A good day today.
3-0 +300
YTD 118-104-9, +1223

good day pal!!!!!!!!!

 

[Tanko]

Only game I like today.....

SD -104

 

[Franz555]

Only game I like today.....

SD -104

BOL Today

Keep up the great work

 

[Tanko]

1-0 today +100
I kind of felt like the Padres game would be close. The SD relievers leave a lot to be desired in their performance.

YTD 119-104-9, +1323