Tampa 2023-2024

[rdalert447]

Ochoa with a four-bagger today. Gonna be expensive if he gets blanked….its worth the risk.

Race 1 #7 Unexpected Tiger 9/2
Race 3 #3 Amor Salvaje 15-1
Race 4 #9 Money Song 3-1
Race #2 Discreet Devil 4-1

Ochoa is like 0 for 11 thus far, so I think those low odds entries will drift upwards. I’ll have win bets on all, and fool around with many exotics. Just gotta hope to play him right when he eventually detonates.

Ochoa blanked. I blew $152 on him in total. New figure:

-$437

 

[rdalert447]

Rd, I'll be rooting for you today. Tell me a little more on the Ochoa angle.

*Are you saying that HISTORICALLY it's been a +EV angle?
...If so, can you give me the stats on this?
...# starts, # wins, Avg Price, etc.

I told you that I believe in your approach. Profitable betting is normally a result of discrepancy in two items: 1) Tote Board versus 2) True Odds.

Like you say, people might be sleeping on Ochoa. If it's not in the recent trend, people ignore it. I hope you bag some profits today.

Betting Ochoa blind over the last 6 years or so is profitable. He’s had some monster meets in there. He is the type of trainer I like to focus on; one that hits at around 6-10% for a career but has a knack for scoring with 40-1, 50-1, 60-1 bombs etc. I’ve seen him do it many times at different tracks.
Unfortunately, I don’t have access to the full stats anymore. It’s too much time and effort to compile, of which I don’t have. I usually pay $40 for a Jim Mazur book per meet. He’s a statistician and gambler. His stats usually go back three previous meets. Was quite handy. He discontinued his Tampa book this year, and I disposed of the version from last meet. Working this year mostly from memory.
One Ochoa winner, if played correctly, can make one’s year. Same goes for a guy like Uriah St Lewis. The trick is timing it right AND structuring right. I am a work in progress (35 years ) when it comes to structuring.
This type of wagering is not for the faint of heart, though. I go through LONG losing streaks during the course of the year. Most couldn’t stand the misery and bleeding money for long stretches. I can because I’ve seen guys like Ochoa, Uriah, Arboritanza, Schistl, etc bomb one or two out, year after year. Everyone else is betting Chad Brown, Pletcher, etc, while “my guys” go ignored.
Hope that answers your question. If I am able to retrieve my past trainer stats, I will be sure to post them here.

 

[rdalert447]

Hey rdalert447 do play on Horse tourneys or Derby Wars? GL Today.

I just re-upped my NHC Tour membership a couple weeks ago. It’s been dormant for a few years. But I’m getting back to it. Like you said, tourneys are the way to go.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Thx for post 62, rd. Good stuff.

Full respect to horse-guys like you. I hear you on people betting the name Jock/Trainer.

I'm always looking to the Contrarian side. Ochoa sounds like he's +EV. Hope you hit the next one.

 

[rdalert447]

Thx for post 62, rd. Good stuff.

Full respect to horse-guys like you. I hear you on people betting the name Jock/Trainer.

I'm always looking to the Contrarian side. Ochoa sounds like he's +EV. Hope you hit the next one.

Same to you Chucky. Hope you succeed in any and every endeavor.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Same to you Chucky. Hope you succeed in any and every endeavor.

Getting harder and harder, rd. Sanity and health are two starting points.

Betting less and less. The lines are sharp. I did better in 2022 than 2023.

 

[theriver55]

I just re-upped my NHC Tour membership a couple weeks ago. It’s been dormant for a few years. But I’m getting back to it. Like you said, tourneys are the way to go.

Good deal RD. Yeah would recommend you check out Horse tourneys and or Derby Wars if have have never played there. HT is the better of the sites with a lot of offerings to suit most players needs. DW is also cool but not as popular as HT. GL.

 

[rdalert447]

Good looking card today….

 

[carolinakid]

Merry Christmas to you and the family and thank-you for posting

 

[fiftycint]

Give um hell RD.....

 

[theriver55]

Good looking card today….

GL Today at Tampa RD. will be checking out the action.

 

[rdalert447]

Merry Christmas to you and the family and thank-you for posting

Merry Christmas to you and yours, CK! Hope you enjoy many wins, and many Coors regular.

 

[rdalert447]

Give um hell RD.....

Thanks, Fifty. You as well. Monmouth local Tony Wilson has one entered in the 4th. Will have him singled in several Pick Threes.

 

[rdalert447]

GL Today at Tampa RD. will be checking out the action.

Good luck, River. Let’s hammer out some bombs!

 

[rdalert447]

Stealing JK’s schtick with this line:

Consecutive posts from CK, FIFTYCINT, and THERIVER55….. BMR is in the rise!

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck and happy holidays, RD!

 

[rdalert447]

Good luck and happy holidays, RD!

Thanks, Genie. Happy Holidays!

 

[rdalert447]

Up to around $370 in action. That’s a lot for me on a single day. This is how I played the first:

Race 1
$20 win #4 Beast or Famine 8-1
$2 DD 4/6,7,
50c P3 4/6,7/2,3,6,7,8
Trainer Smith doesn’t get bet a lot but guy is solid over the last few years here, win percentage and ROI. Maybe it’s because of his plain name? Whatever reason, I’m in at a square price.

Risk $29, -$437 for meet

 

[rdalert447]

Dud

Race 3
$20 win #2 Bionda Surprise 10-1
$2 exbx 2/3,8
.50c P3 2,3,6,7,8/7/4,7,8,10

Yanez is another guy that doesn’t run many but has a nice ROI. Means he’s good for one or two scores per meet. Jumping on now at a nice price, with a good rider, in a short field.

Risk $38, -$466 for meet

 

[rdalert447]

Race 5
$20 win #7 Saex 20-1
$2 exbx 7/4,8,10
$2 DD 7/5,6,8
.50c P3 4,7,8,10/5,6,8/2,3,4
Ochoa is like 0 for 15 so far this meet. Been on each one, just about, but somehow still holding my own. Just gotta wait out his cold streak for the bombs to flow…..

Risk $56, -$504 for meet