Tampa 2023-2024

[chuckythegoat2]

You needed that one really bad
Great job

Fuk off. He's posting, leave him alone.

 

[rdalert447]

Good looking card today once you get past the first two races.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Good looking card today once you get past the first two races.

Hope you drill it, rd.

Hoping variance is on your side today.

 

[rdalert447]

Ochoa has three entered today. He’s like 0 for 10 to start the meet. Sucks, because I’ve been in all of them, but also good as the public will get off the scent. He’ll come around with some prices, as always.

Race 3
$20 win #5 Litigant 8-1 (
$2 exbx 4-5
.50c tri 4,5/ALL/4,5
$2 DD 4,5/7
.50c P3 4,5/7/ALL
.50c P3 4,5/ALL/11

Risked $50

 

[harpo]

GL 2Day 447

 

[harpo]

$2 Ex Key 8/4-5
$10 W 8

 

[rdalert447]

Nada from Ochoa.

-$253

 

[rdalert447]

Ochoa again.

Race 5
$20 win # 11 Forever Saucy 20-1
$2 exbx 11/2,3,7

Risk $32

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Ochoa again.

Race 5
$20 win # 11 Forever Saucy 20-1
$2 exbx 11/2,3,7

Risk $32

rd, I'm not gonna say that I'm tailing you (yet). But I think your instinct is good.

I like it. You identify an angle. And you know the public:
*How much does the betting public rely on recency bias?
...I'd say a lot. Good Luck on your horse. In horse-racing, it's all about being there for the Overlay when the fat price hits.

 

[harpo]

Tamp
R-7
$20 W 3
$5 Ex 3-9

 

[rdalert447]

Ochoa with a four-bagger today. Gonna be expensive if he gets blanked….its worth the risk.

Race 1 #7 Unexpected Tiger 9/2
Race 3 #3 Amor Salvaje 15-1
Race 4 #9 Money Song 3-1
Race #2 Discreet Devil 4-1

Ochoa is like 0 for 11 thus far, so I think those low odds entries will drift upwards. I’ll have win bets on all, and fool around with many exotics. Just gotta hope to play him right when he eventually detonates.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Ochoa with a four-bagger today. Gonna be expensive if he gets blanked….its worth the risk.

Race 1 #7 Unexpected Tiger 9/2
Race 3 #3 Amor Salvaje 15-1
Race 4 #9 Money Song 3-1
Race #2 Discreet Devil 4-1

Ochoa is like 0 for 11 thus far, so I think those low odds entries will drift upwards. I’ll have win bets on all, and fool around with many exotics. Just gotta hope to play him right when he eventually detonates.

Rd, I'll be rooting for you today. Tell me a little more on the Ochoa angle.

*Are you saying that HISTORICALLY it's been a +EV angle?
...If so, can you give me the stats on this?
...# starts, # wins, Avg Price, etc.

I told you that I believe in your approach. Profitable betting is normally a result of discrepancy in two items: 1) Tote Board versus 2) True Odds.

Like you say, people might be sleeping on Ochoa. If it's not in the recent trend, people ignore it. I hope you bag some profits today.

 

[jjgold]

Nothing in horseracing is EV+ because of massive takeout

 

[theriver55]

Nothing in horseracing is EV+ because of massive takeout

yeah GOLD the rake is a killer. Still a fun sport to play but tourneys with a lower rake probably the best way to play.

 

[theriver55]

Hey rdalert447 do play on Horse tourneys or Derby Wars? GL Today.

 

[BMR Genie]

Ochoa with a four-bagger today. Gonna be expensive if he gets blanked….its worth the risk.

Race 1 #7 Unexpected Tiger 9/2
Race 3 #3 Amor Salvaje 15-1
Race 4 #9 Money Song 3-1
Race #2 Discreet Devil 4-1

Ochoa is like 0 for 11 thus far, so I think those low odds entries will drift upwards. I’ll have win bets on all, and fool around with many exotics. Just gotta hope to play him right when he eventually detonates.

Good luck today, RD!

 

[chuckythegoat2]

FWIW: that's race 6 -
Race #2 Discreet Devil 4-1

 

[jjgold]

Tourneys are the way to go

 

[theriver55]

Tourneys are the way to go

 

[jjgold]

Dalert update us