Stormy's 2024 CFP Plays

[stormtrooper8]

These plays will be accounted in my All-Sports Thread as well, but thought this is a signature enough event to separate it out a bit

 

[stormtrooper8]

First Round

Indiana +7.5 -108

Diving too far into volume statistics in college football is pretty meaningless, given the disparity in opponents, noise, etc. These two teams are pretty evenly matched, and their strengths seem to be able to counter each other's strengths. Think the line is a little bit bloated because of game location -- South Bend is not a difficult place to play in the slightest.

Notre Dame seems to have gotten a lot of praise for beating up on bad teams, whereas Indiana is criticized for doing just that. That loss for Indiana in Columbus served them, made them battle-tested in a way Notre Dame really isn't.

The Irish may win this game, but I expect Indiana to linger and don't really understand why they are getting more than a touchdown here.

 

[BMR Genie]

You are very ready for the playoff, Storm.

Good luck!

 

[stormtrooper8]

First Round

Penn State -8.5 -105

Just look down on paper and notice that SMU is not a top 5 team, and you should have plenty of faith in the Nittany Lions to hold down the fort here. While SMU has a respectable rush defense, I think this is going to be going up in class quite a bit against a pretty strong Penn State rushing attack. Just think they aren't going to have a lot of answers against the Penn State rushing attack. And unlike South Bend, Happy Valley is a true home field advantage

I have been an outspoken Penn State cynic here, but this is not the spot to fade them. They are a competitive Big Ten team hosting an at-large SMU team. Penn State just needs to keep the game plan simple and they should win by double-digits.

Do I trust Franklin to do that? Not fully, but MOE is enough where I think they do cover the number.

 

[stormtrooper8]

First Round

Clemson +11.5 -109

This is a pretty good number, definitely decent arguments on both sides. To me, there are a couple of factors here. I think the Texas offense is dinged up/struggling quite a bit. Georgia's defense is not that good, and Texas couldn't seem to get out of its own way in that very winnable SEC title game. I could see them moving the ball a little bit but stalling. Ewers just isn't that good -- there's a reason Ohio State told him to go away. I can't see them putting the hammer on a Clemson team that has progressed, despite not being as good as Texas. Number could also have some home field bloating. Austin is not a great home environment, don't think it provides any significant advantage.

Ultimately Texas should win because they're just a better team, but at 11.5 I like Clemson. 11.5 is also a pretty nice backdoor number in general.

Tough game though.

 

[stormtrooper8]

First Round

Ohio State -7.5 -105

It seems like Ryan Day is a pretty good side to bet on when the other team isn't Michigan. The issue here is Tennessee's defensive structure is pretty similar to Michigan: strong upfront, but very vulnerable on the perimeter. I think Ohio State's game plan is going to be radically different though. They should be able to attack Tennessee's secondary pretty well here.

Ohio State also matches up quite well with Tennessee defensively. They should be able to neutralize the run game pretty well and force Tennessee to try and beat them in the air. That's just not going to work here.

Ohio State is the much better team here, and they're at home. If they protect the ball and don't overthink the game plan, they should win by 10-14 and move on to the Rose Bowl

 

[JDS]

Love the picks and love the reasonings gonna tail these hope we go 3-1 or a sweep.

 

[Franz555]

I'm a huge Irish fan. Notre Dame by 7 works

BOL

Always appreciate a good write up

 

[BigJay]

Good luck Storm.

Always enjoy your picks and matchup thoughts

 

[JDS]

2-2 ATS not bad, I went 0-3 ATS. Which I don’t really mind reduced my football wagers to $100 months ago.

 

[stormtrooper8]

2-2 -0.14 for the First Round

Chalk city

 

[stormtrooper8]

Sorry 2-2 -0.17

 

[stormtrooper8]

Quarterfinal (Fiesta Bowl)


Boise State +11.5 -108


Still think this team is getting slept on a bit. With their schedule, it's hard to evaluate them too well compared to bigger conference teams. But they have the best player in the playoffs, and a vastly underrated QB. They played at Oregon and gave them all they could handle, and were able to get movement in the trenches. Their D held up relatively ok too. Early-season result, but don't think they've regressed at all.

Penn State may be getting overvalued a bit because of the SMU game -- they showed some vulnerability on both sides of the ball, but the abysmal play of QB from SMU really made the game more lopsided than it truly was. Franklin is still a stooge, including some questionable decisions in that game

Number just seems too big. Penn State probably wins, but Boise should keep it respectable

 

[BigJay]

Quarterfinal (Fiesta Bowl)


Boise State +11.5 -108


Still think this team is getting slept on a bit. With their schedule, it's hard to evaluate them too well compared to bigger conference teams. But they have the best player in the playoffs, and a vastly underrated QB. They played at Oregon and gave them all they could handle, and were able to get movement in the trenches. Their D held up relatively ok too. Early-season result, but don't think they've regressed at all.

Penn State may be getting overvalued a bit because of the SMU game -- they showed some vulnerability on both sides of the ball, but the abysmal play of QB from SMU really made the game more lopsided than it truly was. Franklin is still a stooge, including some questionable decisions in that game

Number just seems too big. Penn State probably wins, but Boise should keep it respectable

GL Storm. Yes you’re definitely going against Joe Public and most on BMR here

 

[stormtrooper8]

GL Storm. Yes you’re definitely going against Joe Public and most on BMR here

Who is on Penn State here?

 

[dougtushyterror]

Quarterfinal (Fiesta Bowl)


Boise State +11.5 -108


Still think this team is getting slept on a bit. With their schedule, it's hard to evaluate them too well compared to bigger conference teams. But they have the best player in the playoffs, and a vastly underrated QB. They played at Oregon and gave them all they could handle, and were able to get movement in the trenches. Their D held up relatively ok too. Early-season result, but don't think they've regressed at all.

Penn State may be getting overvalued a bit because of the SMU game -- they showed some vulnerability on both sides of the ball, but the abysmal play of QB from SMU really made the game more lopsided than it truly was. Franklin is still a stooge, including some questionable decisions in that game

Number just seems too big. Penn State probably wins, but Boise should keep it respectable

Delusionally banking on your squad somehow getting the help they need to get in Storm. That's why I'm on KC & NYJ. 2 down 10 to go with this even though I know it has a chance in Hell

 

[BigJay]

Delusionally banking on your squad somehow getting the help they need to get in Storm. That's why I'm on KC & NYJ. 2 down 10 to go with this even though I know it has a chance in Hell

View attachment 50277

my man

 

[stormtrooper8]

Quarterfinal (Peach Bow)


Arizona State +13 -111

Wish I got the better of the number, but I do like the Sun Devils to keep it pretty close. I think they have enough weaponry on offense to keep the Texas defense honest. We saw a lesser Clemson offense give Texas all kinds of problems. Arizona State should be able to move the ball a bit more here, and has a better chance of controlling the clock than Clemson did. I think Texas may be having their offense overrated a tad after their last game.

We'll see. I think Texas wins, but Arizona State I think will come out pretty fired up and may lead a bit in this game. Texas probably finds a way because of talent discrepancy, but kind of like Boise in a way think Arizona State is going to be juiced to prove people wrong

 

[dougtushyterror]

my man

How fitting would it be if the Jets were my only losing leg Jay? Swore I wouldn't touch them after winning that 5k vs Jax anymore this yr (after losing 40k vs ARI & 20K vs PIT). For some reason I thought they had a shot at BUF (playing in 2nd gear) knowing the Bucs ML was gonng freeroll it. Knew I should've taken NYG ML instead having a hunch IND wasn't gonna win out.

 

[BigJay]

Quarterfinal (Peach Bow)


Arizona State +13 -111

Wish I got the better of the number, but I do like the Sun Devils to keep it pretty close. I think they have enough weaponry on offense to keep the Texas defense honest. We saw a lesser Clemson offense give Texas all kinds of problems. Arizona State should be able to move the ball a bit more here, and has a better chance of controlling the clock than Clemson did. I think Texas may be having their offense overrated a tad after their last game.

We'll see. I think Texas wins, but Arizona State I think will come out pretty fired up and may lead a bit in this game. Texas probably finds a way because of talent discrepancy, but kind of like Boise in a way think Arizona State is going to be juiced to prove people wrong

Texas has a propensity to keep games closer than they should be

Ewers tends to have stretches in games, sometimes long stretches, where he just plain isn’t very good