Stormtrooper8 NFL 2023

[BMR Genie]

Not sure if can be editied but it should say:

Chiefs AFC West winner

@BMR Genie

Done, Storm.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Done, Storm.

You are the best

Thank you G

 

[Wagerallsports]

Adding a future


Bengals to win the AFC +530


Another small future I booked today while value still there

The reality is they are probably the best team in the NFL going into this season, and the fact that they are not ahead of the Bills is just beyond laughable

The Chiefs one is understandable at least since they're the defending champs

I think Cincinnati is going to get off to a faster start this year and make home field a priority. I think they've got a good shot at snagging it.

Burrow will have a MVP-esque year if healthy

Danger of futures is always health/injuries, but you can't wager with the mindset that someone will get hurt

I'd love to see Burrow get one

 

[Wagerallsports]

Give Joe Burrow Andy Reid and might be just as successful as Mahomes

 

[stormtrooper8]

Give Joe Burrow Andy Reid and might be just as successful as Mahomes

Good point

He’s already about as good

 

[Wagerallsports]

Danger of futures is always health/injuries, but you can't wager with the mindset that someone will get hurt

There are some instances for player props/futures though where you expect it

For example i played Dalvin Cook under total yards coming off his rookie year i believe where it was evident he was/is one of those injury prone guys

 

[stormtrooper8]

Jets season total wins under 9.5 +110 (2 units)
Browns season total winds under 9.5 -140 (2 units)


Two of the easiest win totals this year.

They're giving out free money this time of year.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Jets season total wins under 9.5 +110 (2 units)
Browns season total winds under 9.5 -140 (2 units)


Two of the easiest win totals this year.

They're giving out free money this time of year.

Two divisions where teams are gonna knock each other around

I think you may be right

 

[stormtrooper8]

Two divisions where teams are gonna knock each other around

I think you may be right

They are both overrated teams

And clearly the worst in their divisions

 

[Wagerallsports]

Yes maybe

But either way, they are in divisions where they will at best split with the other teams

That contributes a lot to the under

 

[stormtrooper8]

Bengals to win AFC North +160 (5 units)

The value is just too good with overreaction to Burrow injury

 

[stormtrooper8]

The first card coming soon

I will do the every game ATS tracker as well with Hilton lines

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 0-0


Week 1


Texans +10 -107

First pick of the year. Week 1 is treacherous and there is always a wider range of outcomes in this week than any other of the year. This is my first spread play of the year, and my favorite so far in Week 1.

Big picture, I like Baltimore and think they are a clear #2 team in the AFC North, as well as a playoff team. But they are all kinds of banged up on defense. Their secondary is in shambles, and will be a problem for them early in the season. New offensive system in play as well may take a few weeks to get rolling, and could be kind of out of sorts especially early in this one.

Houston is not a great team by any means, but early in the year in that bad division under a great new coach and a new QB -- I expect them to come out with a lot of energy. I think they will be able to move the ball a bit and be balanced -- decent success as Baltimore can't afford to be too aggressive up front. If they are over aggressive, Stroud should be able to find some holes.

Would it SHOCK me if Balty wins by 35? No lol

But I think Houston keeps this close and has a shot to spoil some early survivor picks

 

[Wagerallsports]

Agree, week 1 every single team good & bad has new hopes and plays their azzes off

 

[stormtrooper8]

Documented Futures

Dolphins AFC East winner + Bengals AFC North winner + Chiefs AFC West winner 3-leg parlay +1256
Bengals to win the AFC +530
Jets season total wins under 9.5 +110 (2 units)
Browns season total wins under 9.5 -140 (2 units)
Bengals to win AFC North +160 (5 units)

 

[stormtrooper8]

49ers -1.5 -115

This has quietly emerged as one of my favorite plays of Week 1. I originally leaned Pittsburgh on first glance. But after further review, pendulum has swung all the way to feeling strong about San Francisco.

I think the 49ers offense matches up well with the Steelers defense. Watt is going to be a bit to handle obviously, but 49ers have the personnel and scheme to neutralize him a bit. There is some skepticism about Purdy still, but with the tools at his disposal healthy and ready to go, I think he is going to have a solid first game.

The main reason I like the play though is on the other side of the ball. Pittsburgh is so limited on offense -- their offense has been way overhyped for some reason. I don't think Pickett sucks, but he obviously hasn't show much upside to this point and he hasn't ever faced a pass rush this good. The weapons also just not very good on the Steelers. I just think they aren't going to be able to score much here.

I think SF can win this game without a gem offensively mainly because their defense should be able to dominate here. Week 1 means anything can happen, but unless there is some weird turnover outlier like that year's Week 1 for the Steelers then I have trouble seeing them win this game to be honest

 

[JDS]

49ers -1.5 -115

This has quietly emerged as one of my favorite plays of Week 1. I originally leaned Pittsburgh on first glance. But after further review, pendulum has swung all the way to feeling strong about San Francisco.

I think the 49ers offense matches up well with the Steelers defense. Watt is going to be a bit to handle obviously, but 49ers have the personnel and scheme to neutralize him a bit. There is some skepticism about Purdy still, but with the tools at his disposal healthy and ready to go, I think he is going to have a solid first game.

The main reason I like the play though is on the other side of the ball. Pittsburgh is so limited on offense -- their offense has been way overhyped for some reason. I don't think Pickett sucks, but he obviously hasn't show much upside to this point and he hasn't ever faced a pass rush this good. The weapons also just not very good on the Steelers. I just think they aren't going to be able to score much here.

I think SF can win this game without a gem offensively mainly because their defense should be able to dominate here. Week 1 means anything can happen, but unless there is some weird turnover outlier like that year's Week 1 for the Steelers then I have trouble seeing them win this game to be honest

That was a good read, quality break down.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Doing the every game ATS picks again. Should be posted every Wednesday -- based on Westgate-style contest I am in

Will be interesting to see how it goes this year.


ATS overall record: 0-0

 

[Pimike]

Good info

Good luck this season

 

[stormtrooper8]

Week 1 Survivor Pick

Commanders